Are the Government massaging the death rate.

bear66

Well-known member
Am I missing something?

Reported that deaths in hospitals have risen by 331 today, but only 54 happened in the last 24 hours, 121 the day before that and only 28 the day before that one. Then the rest of the total spread out throughout April, start of May and the earliest new death been 13th of March!

So to me that looks like more a case of the media massaging the figures than the government, Joe public sees that figure of 331 and thinks **** thats a lot that have died from/with covid-19 in the last 24 hours.

What day actually had the most amount of hospital deaths?
8 April
It was said yesterday that even with new figures by which they adjust the real daily figures, the highest death rate day hasn't changed.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Lot of pages for this thread now so not sure if I missed it being said but I never realised that a death following a pillar 2 +ve test is not counted in the DHSC death figures

View attachment 2534
Yes, that's true.

However, it must be remembered that Pillar 1 is for the most serious cases who require admission to hospital whilst Pillar 2 is more of a screening programme for key workers with milder symptoms. Therefore, I would imagine that the number of people who died following a positive test under Pillar 2 would be relatively small.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Am I missing something?

Reported that deaths in hospitals have risen by 331 today, but only 54 happened in the last 24 hours, 121 the day before that and only 28 the day before that one. Then the rest of the total spread out throughout April, start of May and the earliest new death been 13th of March!

So to me that looks like more a case of the media massaging the figures than the government, Joe public sees that figure of 331 and thinks **** thats a lot that have died from/with covid-19 in the last 24 hours.

What day actually had the most amount of hospital deaths?
As Bear says, the date for highest hospital deaths (in England) was 8th April (874). The date for highest deaths in all settings was 21st April (1,172).

It's not a new phenomenon for the NHS England figures to be spread out over many earlier days. As I've mentioned previously, though, these are newly reported deaths and, presuming that reporting delays are fairly uniform across the period, the daily numbers still give you a reasonable idea of trend and scale.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
But do you see what I'm saying. Instead of leading with the actual figure of who they knew had passed in the last 24 hours they go with the total of new deaths confirmed. Can you see why this would give the public the impression nothing is changing for the better?
 

bear66

Well-known member
But do you see what I'm saying. Instead of leading with the actual figure of who they knew had passed in the last 24 hours they go with the total of new deaths confirmed. Can you see why this would give the public the impression nothing is changing for the better?
The only misleading numbers are the Sunday/Monday figures. As the main contribution is over the previous three days, the figures are not far out from the real number (as Billy says).

The unexplained excess deaths are the bigger concern.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
The only misleading numbers are the Sunday/Monday figures. As the main contribution is over the previous three days, the figures are not far out from the real number (as Billy says).

The unexplained excess deaths are the bigger concern.
Not sure what day of the week the initial mortality figures across Europe get published on here. I am watching every day. To see the shape of the England chart including data for week 18.

https://www.euromomo.eu/
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Four further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 199 (appears to have been revised down retrospectively by one).

No further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, total remaining at 82.

South Tees NHS Trust are 5th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the joint 36th highest (from joint 37th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 19th (from 18th yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 107th (from 106th yesterday) in the country.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
But do you see what I'm saying. Instead of leading with the actual figure of who they knew had passed in the last 24 hours they go with the total of new deaths confirmed. Can you see why this would give the public the impression nothing is changing for the better?
I think there would be a greater danger of under-reporting the true scale of hospital based deaths if they led on the number who have been reported as dying within the past 24 hours. I've mentioned this example before but, for Saturday 11th April it was first reported that 121 people had died on that specific day. That number was subsequently revised upwards and upwards over the following days, and it is now reported that the number who died in English hospitals on 11th April is 755.

So, as you can see, it would give a completely false position if they just reported the deaths which are known to have occurred in the past 24 hours. As a comparison, the total they originally announced as having occurred by 5pm on 11th April was 657, so actually an under-reporting of the true total, but a lot closer to the correct figure than the deaths in the past 24 hours approach.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
I'm misunderstood.
The media should be reporting exactly how you guys are.
Go with the known deaths in the last 24 hours then also make as big a deal about them figures too.
As harsh as it sounds knowing some of the new deaths were on the upward trend to the peak doesn't help explain the downward trend if you get me.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
I read these posts everyday, so thanks for the work you put in. I do get confused though. My primary confusion, and I am not asking for an answer, is the excess deaths that are not being attributed to covid are huge in terms of numbers. I am having difficulty imagining these are deaths associated with lockdown and people reluctance to attend a GP or A&E.

I would also expect RTA deaths to reduce with less traffic, flu deaths to be lower due to social distancing so this really confuses me.
 

bear66

Well-known member
1522 infections in Teesside and 268 in North Yorkshire in South Tees hospital district.

1.1% increase in Teesside, lower than yesterday.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I read these posts everyday, so thanks for the work you put in. I do get confused though. My primary confusion, and I am not asking for an answer, is the excess deaths that are not being attributed to covid are huge in terms of numbers. I am having difficulty imagining these are deaths associated with lockdown and people reluctance to attend a GP or A&E.

I would also expect RTA deaths to reduce with less traffic, flu deaths to be lower due to social distancing so this really confuses me.
At some point, sooner rather than later, some information needs to come out why these deaths are taking place. Waiting a year isn't going to be any use in tackling the reasons. Part of the problem may be that Covid-19 seems to attack a lot of vital organs and it may not be able to immediately conclude the cause of death if the person wasn't tested.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Thanks Bear, I wasn't expecting an answer as currently it is just left as an anomoly. I would guess, as you say, that at some point someone will do the analysis and we will know the underlying cause. To my thinking, with the number of excess deaths, it would seem the "underlying" cause has to be the same, otherwise it would be very strange that during a pandemic, other causes of death increase to the extent they have.
 

bear66

Well-known member
1580 infections in Teesside and 275 in North Yorkshire in South Tees hospital district.

3.8% increase in Teesside. After three much lower days, an increase a little higher than the national average. There is no breakdown of more serious hospital attendees, which are about 40% of the national figure.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
No further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, total remaining at 199.

No further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, total remaining at 82.

South Tees NHS Trust are 5th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the joint 37th highest (from joint 36th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 19th (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the 109th (from joint 107th yesterday) in the country.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
Five further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 204.

Three further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, taking total to 85.

South Tees NHS Trust are 5th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the 36th highest (from joint 37th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are joint 18th (from 19th yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 105th (from 109th yesterday) in the country.
 

bear66

Well-known member
1634 infections in Teesside and 284 in North Yorkshire in South Tees hospital district.

3.1% increase in Teesside, slightly less than yesterday, but about 50% more than the national average.
 

Billy Horner

Well-known member
No further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, total remaining at 204.

No further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, total remaining at 85.

South Tees NHS Trust are 5th highest (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the 37th highest (from 36th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are joint 18th (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 106th (from joint 105th yesterday) in the country.
 
Top