Apparently Teesside is no longer part of the North East when it comes to 'levelling up'

TeaCider said:
It was 324 with Scotland.

Taking away 72 seats and that requirement for a majority is smaller.

But either way, the statement that Labour can't win without Scotland is wrong.
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OK. They have never won an election where they didn’t have a majority in Scotland. And it doesn’t seem likely they will.

You can’t seriously think this Tory devolution swindle is anything good for Labour .

It’s divide and rule politics by the Tories and unfortunately come election time it works on enough constituencies to split the potential Labour vote.
 
exiledinboro said:
It’s been said a million times before why it’s unlikely Labour will a majority

The world has changed since the 2000’s

The question should be why does the actual events not back up what the polls say

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The actual events did back up what polls were saying though, including Hartlepool, did you actually read the link?

1 Tory gain out of 12 with 2 none contested holds.

I'm more interested in your behind the scenes poll data though.
 
exiledinboro said:
Chris your polls predicted there would be 523 Labour MPs and 5 Conservative MPs a few weeks ago

Do I really need to explain why the polls are wrong?

Really?
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Polls are a snapshot of current public opinion, where have I ever said otherwise?

It is plausible that the polls will narrow going into the next election, it's equally plausible it could get worse for the Tories. Either way polling has been historically accurate.

You are trying again to back up your own opinion with claims of poll data, I'm asking you to provide that data as that's what I'm interested in, if you made that claim up then just say so.
 
Colin Warnek said:
OK. They have never won an election where they didn’t have a majority in Scotland. And it doesn’t seem likely they will.

You can’t seriously think this Tory devolution swindle is anything good for Labour .

It’s divide and rule politics by the Tories and unfortunately come election time it works on enough constituencies to split the potential Labour vote.
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So your overall point is nonsense then.

They won 2 huge majorities in a row within your lifetime, which would have been huge majorities regardless of what happened in Scotland.

So I think there's a good chance that they can win a majority again just on the basis of England and Wales.

If the current polling pans out in a general election, Labour are winning a huge majority.

Devolution started under a Labour government.
 
I can genuinely see either lab or Lib Dem’s making gains in Scotland with the current SNP Meltdown and **** show getting bigger and bigger

Their is also the risk of the tories gaining up there too thanks to the amount of work they are throwing at the ship yards for navy ships
 
Acklam_Lad said:
I can genuinely see either lab or Lib Dem’s making gains in Scotland with the current SNP Meltdown and **** show getting bigger and bigger

Their is also the risk of the tories gaining up there too thanks to the amount of work they are throwing at the ship yards for navy ships
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Screenshot_20221228_202319_Chrome.jpg

If the Tories could get within 8% of them in a place where they're utterly toxic, after Brexit, then I'm sure that Labour could make up ground in a place where they were considered the natural party for half a century.

Especially when we're now at a time where many SNP problems are coming home to roost at the same time as the Tory shambles at Westminster.
 
BoroFur said:
Latest poll on Westminster voting intention in Scotland.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1598000205730807814
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Means nothing till the votes are counted.
Labour in Scotland has been the poor Westminster relative for many years.
What with better Social Care, subsidised rail fares, free higher education....who would want to give that away?
Independence will be a better option.
London can try and stop it - but its inevitable.
Very much like the confluence of the North and South of Ireland.
The Brexit outcome and the DUP refusal to acknowledge they are not the voters choice - but still denying the people of Northern Ireland their assemblry - Stormont.
Scotland voted for Europe.
Northern Ireland have been left to drift, without its own governance - unlike Scotland and Wales.
Westminster cant run a raffle.
Why does anyone want them?
[Even England]?
 
r00fie1 said:
Means nothing till the votes are counted.
Labour in Scotland has been the poor Westminster relative for many years.
What with better Social Care, subsidised rail fares, free higher education....who would want to give that away?
Independence will be a better option.
London can try and stop it - but its inevitable.
Very much like the confluence of the North and South of Ireland.
The Brexit outcome and the DUP refusal to acknowledge they are not the voters choice - but still denying the people of Northern Ireland their assemblry - Stormont.
Scotland voted for Europe.
Northern Ireland have been left to drift, without its own governance - unlike Scotland and Wales.
Westminster cant run a raffle.
Why does anyone want them?
[Even England]?
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By the same rational, the Tories are currently very popular.
 
exiledinboro said:
Labours position is no to the EU -single market and customs union in a country that voted remain 🤷🏻‍♂️

The SNP is arguing for a return to the EU which is polling well in Scotland

————

Labour has said no deal with the SNP

—————

Labour has rejected that Scotland can have a referendum on independence and claimed Scotland is in a voluntary union 🤣 but can’t be allowed to leave

The SNP is for a second referendum

—————

Plus the SNP have a relatively clean nose compared to the toxic Westminster politicians/media/rich/lobbyists

I don’t see a Labour comeback in Scotland 🤷🏻‍♂️
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You're assuming every Scottish person shares the same opinions, they don't.
 
r00fie1 said:
Means nothing till the votes are counted.
Labour in Scotland has been the poor Westminster relative for many years.
What with better Social Care, subsidised rail fares, free higher education....who would want to give that away?
Independence will be a better option.
London can try and stop it - but its inevitable.
Very much like the confluence of the North and South of Ireland.
The Brexit outcome and the DUP refusal to acknowledge they are not the voters choice - but still denying the people of Northern Ireland their assemblry - Stormont.
Scotland voted for Europe.
Northern Ireland have been left to drift, without its own governance - unlike Scotland and Wales.
Westminster cant run a raffle.
Why does anyone want them?
[Even England]?
Click to expand...
When the votes were counted in 2019 it was an unmitigated disaster for Labour in Scotland (as was everywhere else). The opinion polls currently show a significant improvement in Labour's status in Scotland relative to the other parties.

If the SNP make the next GE a single issue vote in Scotland i.e. Independence yes or no, I suspect they'll come unstuck.
 
exiledinboro said:
But in the 2021 Scotland parliament elections Labour under Starmer lost even more members of the Scottish Parliament than in the last election under Corbyn 🤔

In fact the decline has been consistent and has increased to an all time low now under Starmer for Labour

“Percentage of seats won in each election by political group, 1999 to 2021. Left to right:”

View attachment 49993
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What I don't understand is, why did you start all this off by claiming underlying poll data backs up your opinion (still waiting for that) yet now you go out of your way to ignore what polling currently shows?

I could quite easily go through decades of data to show trends, but that's not how politics works. Opinion can shift 180° on a single issue and a party is ruined, the SNP are no different.

If polling was so inaccurate or easily dismissed then why haven't the Tories called an election to get a mandate for Sunak?
 
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