‘Epidemic’ doubling every 7 days.....

Even if it was the right method for them, which I don't believe is, then it's irrelevant anyway, as it can't work here, it's literally impossible.

We have just about the most ignorant bunch of people in the world (after USA), who have been hell bent on going against expert advice for the last 5 years or whatever it is.

Some of our people:
Can't do as they're told
Are extremely selfish
Do not understand that if they impact on others, that it will come back around to impact them
Will not do something for the good of the people, off their own back, unless it immediately benefits them
Think they're a lot smarter than they are, despite having no qualifications or any other way of backing these thoughts up
They do not understand that if they make a choice it has a big impact, they think they're just 1/100. They are, but if everyone makes the same choice as them it's 100/100 (and a massive mess)

From what I've seen and know of Swedish people:
They seem very "good" people, at least every one I've met
They're sensible (or a lot more sensible)
They will try to make the right choice for them, as well as others, even if not asked to do so
Again Statto the above is just plain wrong. The UK is in the mid range of European nations when it comes to following the pandemic advice and legislation. We are better than some and worse than others. This has been shown in multiple polls. The information is there if you want to go and look for it.
 
There is a fair bit there that requires comment. Let me start with the groups that need pleasing. That is just plain wrong. In a pandemic you have a commitment to save as many people as possible, keeping the entire country safe is a minimum requirement of government. It doesn't matter who voted for you and what their political persuasion. You choose the right policies to save as many as you can, the government clearly did not do this on multiple levels. They compromised lockdown, it was too late, they compromised frontline staff by enriching donors who has no experience of the contracts they were handed for PPE and a tracing app. They compromised keeping control of the spread by farming out testing to another party donor when the NHS were ideally placed to manage testing and tracking.

This had absolutely NOTHING to do with pleasing any section of the electorate.

Next lets look at they are all in it together comment. Well you know what they are, the government appointed scientific advisers are exactly that, government appointed. When the government ignored advice or compromised it, those same experts should have made it known the advice was ignored or watered down. Trotting the same experts out to frighten folks into accepting another partial lockdown with made up stats and charrs, equally doesn't sit well with most of us. When experts toe the party line, yup they are in on it.

Policy needs to change quickly to suite the R. Yes it does, and the way to do that is to announce legislation on a Sunday evening with no parliamentary announcement and no time for employers to make sure they comply with the legislation, or, and I am just thinking aloud here, perhaps that is a crappy mechanism. Add in to the mix Johnson doesn't even understand the rule of 6, how is anyone else expected to understand it.

To get them all to agree, to use your term, you put the right policies in place, you are consistent and you put lives before profit. What you do not do is take the opportunity of people dying to enrich your friends, feather your nest and abandon the most vulnerable in society.

Exactly this.
There was one task required of our elected Leaders that was absolutely critical to all of this, and that was to LEAD.
They have failed miserably and betrayed an awful lot of goodwill that was afforded them by all sections of society irrespective of political persuasion - we all wanted them to succeed with this.
 
It’s actually not by Sage at all. It’s an argument by Independent Sage, who have not directed policy. That’s quite an important distinction.

I agree scientists are also humans and they make mistakes, but they are generally coming from a better informed position than the majority of us.

I’m not arguing for us having handled this correctly, or from a pro lockdown position, by the way.
I’m just disagreeing with the whole Sweden direction, as I don’t think it’s applicable here and I don’t think it’s been successful, at all.

thanks for clarifying ref Sage/independent Sage
I’m not in favour or not of following Sweden’s model or ours.
just got lots of questions that remain unanswered.
 
thanks for clarifying ref Sage/independent Sage
I’m not in favour or not of following Sweden’s model or ours.
just got lots of questions that remain unanswered.

Yep, same here. There is sooooo much variation between scientific opinion and government policy and strategy across the world it’s really hard to see which measures are successful, beyond a fully functioning track and trace system.
Even evidence based scientists such as Carl Heneghan have made some wildly incorrect predictions (despite making some good points at times).

The only conclusion that I have confidence in, is that allowing the virus to spread amongst the young to develop herd immunity is absolutely not the best way forward, even more so now that we are getting ever closer to vaccine options.
 
There is a fair bit there that requires comment. Let me start with the groups that need pleasing. That is just plain wrong. In a pandemic you have a commitment to save as many people as possible, keeping the entire country safe is a minimum requirement of government. It doesn't matter who voted for you and what their political persuasion. You choose the right policies to save as many as you can, the government clearly did not do this on multiple levels. They compromised lockdown, it was too late, they compromised frontline staff by enriching donors who has no experience of the contracts they were handed for PPE and a tracing app. They compromised keeping control of the spread by farming out testing to another party donor when the NHS were ideally placed to manage testing and tracking.

This had absolutely NOTHING to do with pleasing any section of the electorate.

Next lets look at they are all in it together comment. Well you know what they are, the government appointed scientific advisers are exactly that, government appointed. When the government ignored advice or compromised it, those same experts should have made it known the advice was ignored or watered down. Trotting the same experts out to frighten folks into accepting another partial lockdown with made up stats and charrs, equally doesn't sit well with most of us. When experts toe the party line, yup they are in on it.

Policy needs to change quickly to suite the R. Yes it does, and the way to do that is to announce legislation on a Sunday evening with no parliamentary announcement and no time for employers to make sure they comply with the legislation, or, and I am just thinking aloud here, perhaps that is a crappy mechanism. Add in to the mix Johnson doesn't even understand the rule of 6, how is anyone else expected to understand it.

To get them all to agree, to use your term, you put the right policies in place, you are consistent and you put lives before profit. What you do not do is take the opportunity of people dying to enrich your friends, feather your nest and abandon the most vulnerable in society.

You've completely misunderstood most of what I was getting at.

I didn't mean they had to be pleased, I meant there was a lot of groups to please. It's impossible to please everyone, which should have been extremely simple to understand from my post, although I could have worded it slightly better, I was in a rush. What I meant was there's going to be a lot of people with differing views and they're certainly not going to agree, this will cause problems, and it has.

The goal should be to save as many as possible (that's my aim, and seems like yours, so we seem to agree), but to do that we would have had to lock down in January/ February, and then temp scan everyone and give them a QR code like they were doing in Asia. This is too much for a lot of the UK doyles though.

Who people vote for shouldn't matter, that was my point. But another point was it does matter, as a lot of people are daft enough to put that over peoples lives.

Our government didn't appoint the WHO, or the independent doctors, the NHS staff, doctors and leaders of other nations etc, they're all pretty much saying the same thing, except we were either slow to listen to our advice or we ignored it, it seems to me like it was our government ignoring our advisors. They're on the same side, but that does not mean they want us to go in the same direction. Think of it like Fauci and Trump, meant to be on the same team, but want different tactics (or no tactics in the case of the fake tan man).

The stats were not made up, they showed doubling every day, and cases might have been (not necessarily recorded cases mind, but we ran out of tests) they were just shown in a way as to scare the idiots, but the idiots won't listen to anything, so it's completely pointless. Those same people don't like experts or facts either though.

Totally agree, when policy changes are required they should be instantaneous. We should have learnt that lesson in March when we let everyone out for one last big pi$$ up and to go to Cheltenham etc. The reason they don't do it is to give business notice, so they don't get backlash, but it's putting money ahead of lives.

You can't get them all to agree, it's impossible, there are no policies which suit all, as there's a boat load of idiots, a boat load of selfish people and a boat laod of people who care more about their party or money, than they do about sense (not called that common sense, on purpose). Ignoring that these people exist is equally stupid.
 
Again Statto the above is just plain wrong. The UK is in the mid range of European nations when it comes to following the pandemic advice and legislation. We are better than some and worse than others. This has been shown in multiple polls. The information is there if you want to go and look for it.

No, it's your opinion that it's wrong. You can't compare the publics response to advice as each countries initial infection, developed infection, advice to the public, orders to the public, policing of the public and response are completely different, you're comparing a banana and an apple and saying it's the same because it's fruit. It's a different shape, colour, taste , from a different area etc.

The only thing you can compare is how the people act on a day to day basis in general, and then use that to gauge how they would react to anything in general. From what I see every day in the UK, we have the highest percentage of ignorant to$$ers around, form anywhere I've ever been (other than the USA, at the minute). The way people have acted through this and to brexit is beyond a joke, the worst thing is, it's the least educated that are the ones that seem to be going against advice the most, or thinking they know better, it's bizarre. Or it's the super rich that think they're above the law or have enough money where it's not a problem.

Also, I don't think everyone is a to$$er, but what I mean is we might have say 40% to$$ers and Sweden might have like 10% to$$ers, that was my point about why Sweden's idea wouldn't work here (even though I don't think it worked there either).
 
Yep, same here. There is sooooo much variation between scientific opinion and government policy and strategy across the world it’s really hard to see which measures are successful, beyond a fully functioning track and trace system.
Even evidence based scientists such as Carl Heneghan have made some wildly incorrect predictions (despite making some good points at times).

The only conclusion that I have confidence in, is that allowing the virus to spread amongst the young to develop herd immunity is absolutely not the best way forward, even more so now that we are getting ever closer to vaccine options.

Just today Hancock says
’Hospital admissions are doubling every 7-8 days’
Hospital admissions Sept 18th 205
Hispital admissions Sept 26th 245

What on earth is going on?
 
Just today Hancock says
’Hospital admissions are doubling every 7-8 days’
Hospital admissions Sept 18th 205
Hispital admissions Sept 26th 245

What on earth is going on?
They've also actually gone down for the last 4 days now too.

Quick edit, gone slightly up today because of North West stats.
 
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They've also actually gone down for the last 4 days now too.

On the back of Whitty’s outrageous 50000 cases a day speculation, there is something afoot.
Best guess - we don’t get anywhere near 50000 cases, hospital intakes don’t get anywhere near the forecast, deaths have a minor blip
And
’We have beaten the virus..... aren’t we brilliant’ will be the refrain.
 
So for the previous two weeks which have been validated:
9-15 Sep: 64 deaths
16-22 Sep: 125 deaths (pretty much double)
23 Sep-present: not validated

Those deaths from 16-22 Sep likely got infected late August/ early September, when we were on about 1500 cases per day, and had the capacity to test anyone that needed it. Now requirements have exceeded capacity and are now on 7k confirmed cases per day, so if that true figure without exceeding capacity could be more like 10k per day, we could end up with around 700 ish deaths per week, in a few weeks, based on that, which is about 100 deaths per day :(

That's all unless the new confirmed cases are a lot younger and less risk etc, but as we learned last time, we're awful at keeping this out of care homes and the like.

So, a few days ago I was backing up the cases "were doubling every week" and "could, double every week" argument, which most went after me for. Then I was also saying we could head towards 100 deaths a day, in a few weeks, and only just seen that we just hit 71, two days in a row, already!

This pretty much validates the cases doubling every week, even if they're not all being recorded (as our testing can't cope with demand).

Keep in mind those 71 deaths per day, likely caught the virus around the 10-15th, when we were recording 3500 cases per day. Now we're recording 7000 cases per day, this could end up near 150-200 per day based on these numbers, and it still seems to be going up. :( That 7000 may even be more like 15,000-30,000 due to testing problems etc!
 
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No, it's your opinion that it's wrong. You can't compare the publics response to advice as each countries initial infection, developed infection, advice to the public, orders to the public, policing of the public and response are completely different, you're comparing a banana and an apple and saying it's the same because it's fruit. It's a different shape, colour, taste , from a different area etc.

The only thing you can compare is how the people act on a day to day basis in general, and then use that to gauge how they would react to anything in general. From what I see every day in the UK, we have the highest percentage of ignorant to$$ers around, form anywhere I've ever been (other than the USA, at the minute). The way people have acted through this and to brexit is beyond a joke, the worst thing is, it's the least educated that are the ones that seem to be going against advice the most, or thinking they know better, it's bizarre. Or it's the super rich that think they're above the law or have enough money where it's not a problem.

Also, I don't think everyone is a to$$er, but what I mean is we might have say 40% to$$ers and Sweden might have like 10% to$$ers, that was my point about why Sweden's idea wouldn't work here (even though I don't think it worked there either).
It's not my opion at all, it is based on surveys done across Europe. I already said that and you just ignored it.
 
It's not my opion at all, it is based on surveys done across Europe. I already said that and you just ignored it.

What survey? How can you survey whether someone is a bell-end?

You completely glossed over my point too, each country has had a different infection, action and response etc. You can't do any sort of behavioural study unless the criteria is controlled and extremely similar, of which it's nowhere near.
 
What survey? How can you survey whether someone is a bell-end?

You completely glossed over my point too, each country has had a different infection, action and response etc. You can't do any sort of behavioural study unless the criteria is controlled and extremely similar, of which it's nowhere near.
I glossed over your point because you clearly hadn't read mine. The 2 surveys I looked at didn't ask people if they were tossers, and frankly, that's pretty poor debating.

Of course rather than do a survey you can just make stuff up with no measurable evidence which is what you did.
 
I glossed over your point because you clearly hadn't read mine. The 2 surveys I looked at didn't ask people if they were tossers, and frankly, that's pretty poor debating.

Of course rather than do a survey you can just make stuff up with no measurable evidence which is what you did.

Your reply was to something that wasn't even a point of mine, where you had missed my original point completely. That's not my problem, it's yours, get over it.
I'm not really debating you, as you've kind of missed my points :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:, you're debating yourself. I couldn't care less about your surveys, as you never linked to them, and they're not relevant to my posts.

I think too many people here don't like to follow advice or experts, and we've just come out of a "we've had enough of experts" problem, which 52% of the voters were on the same side of.

You do a survey of who is a bell end, if you're bothered that much?

I'm allowed to form an opinion from a life of travelling the globe, just because I don't have a clipboard does not mean I've not encountered a higher percentage of bell ends in the UK and USA, than anywhere else.
 
Your reply was to something that wasn't even a point of mine, where you had missed my original point completely. That's not my problem, it's yours, get over it.
I'm not really debating you, as you've kind of missed my points :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO:, you're debating yourself. I couldn't care less about your surveys, as you never linked to them, and they're not relevant to my posts.

I think too many people here don't like to follow advice or experts, and we've just come out of a "we've had enough of experts" problem, which 52% of the voters were on the same side of.

You do a survey of who is a bell end, if you're bothered that much?

I'm allowed to form an opinion from a life of travelling the globe, just because I don't have a clipboard does not mean I've not encountered a higher percentage of bell ends in the UK and USA, than anywhere else.
Well I have my first bellend
 
Just today Hancock says
’Hospital admissions are doubling every 7-8 days’
Hospital admissions Sept 18th 205
Hispital admissions Sept 26th 245

What on earth is going on?

It is madness, I have no idea what is going on. I haven't yet seen today's press conference but after watching the fiasco from Whitty and Vallance the other week I was left open mouthed. It was staggering.

Currently data for admissions is flat. Now this needs to be taken in context with the understanding that many people who go into hospital with covid will be in there for a long time. That alone could increase pressures on hospitals. Triage data continues to trend down, data for the covid symptom tracker app apparently shows signs of a flattening of cases (I haven't seen the raw data for this one).
 
On the back of Whitty’s outrageous 50000 cases a day speculation, there is something afoot.
Best guess - we don’t get anywhere near 50000 cases, hospital intakes don’t get anywhere near the forecast, deaths have a minor blip
And
’We have beaten the virus..... aren’t we brilliant’ will be the refrain.

I was wondering about this on the way home...... Are they looking at a different set of data which isn't released to the public? Why has Whitty's stance changed so much since the start of the pandemic? What on earth has happened with Karl Friston?! The guy was very confidently touting "immunological dark matter" and "80% of people may not be susceptible" based on his modelling and now he is writing opinion pieces in the bmj trotting out the 8% immunity figure and that we're at a "tipping point". Please someone point out if I have misinterpreted him.

It could well be that they are overstating things to make it look like a success when the situation doesn't get as bad as they suggested it could get. I would agree, certainly something odd going on.
 
Just today Hancock says
’Hospital admissions are doubling every 7-8 days’
Hospital admissions Sept 18th 205
Hispital admissions Sept 26th 245

What on earth is going on?

Those are just the figures for England (and provisional in the case of 26th Sept). The provisional UK figures for those dates (excluding Scotland) are:

Hospital admissions Sept 18th 248
Hospital admissions Sept 26th 313

So a 26% increase between the two dates.

But it is far too simplistic to look at two individual data points. You need to compare the 7-day average between those two dates to get a genuine idea of what's actually happening:

Hospital admissions (7-day average) Sept 18th 240
Hospital admissions (7-day average) Sept 26th 339

which is a 38% increase between the two dates.

Now, is that a doubling every 8 days? Clearly not, but it's twice the rate of increase suggested by the figures you quoted.

By my calculations, hospital admissions are currently doubling approx. every 15 days. And remember, the latest numbers exclude admissions in Scotland (where cases are surging at the moment), so the actual doubling rate is probably a bit faster than that.
 
Well I have my first bellend

:LOL::LOL::LOL::LOL::LOL:

1) My original post was not directed at you
2) Your reply (to me) wasn't anything to do with my post
3) I'm not going to reply to a point that is nothing to do with mine, am I?

Jesus, get a grip.
 
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