‘Epidemic’ doubling every 7 days.....
- Thread starter 1finny
- Start date
S7DiscoDown
Well-known member
One positive is that we are rapidly getting an amuity
. It's almost like the heard thingy they wanted us to do (stupid idea).
That's just the figures of those tested. So it's clearly far more who are happily walking around with it and not knowing.
. It's almost like the heard thingy they wanted us to do (stupid idea).That's just the figures of those tested. So it's clearly far more who are happily walking around with it and not knowing.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
I think the model was another one those worst case scenario things that end up making the scientists looking bad
BlindBoyGrunt
Well-known member
That crossed my mind. Why stop at 50,000 when you could wait a few days and say 100,000?
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Week Ending 30/08/2020 - 8,706 total weekly cases
Week Ending 06/09/2020 - 12,685 total weekly cases (Increase of 45.7% from previous week)
Week Ending 13/09/2020 - 21,352 total weekly cases (Increase of 68.3% from previous week)
Week Ending 20/09/2020 - 25,753 total weekly cases (Increase of 20.6% from previous week)
Above stats taken from worldometers.info
Nowhere near doubling every 7 days based on confirmed cases but it is increasing significantly.
Week Ending 06/09/2020 - 12,685 total weekly cases (Increase of 45.7% from previous week)
Week Ending 13/09/2020 - 21,352 total weekly cases (Increase of 68.3% from previous week)
Week Ending 20/09/2020 - 25,753 total weekly cases (Increase of 20.6% from previous week)
Above stats taken from worldometers.info
Nowhere near doubling every 7 days based on confirmed cases but it is increasing significantly.
Heine_Otto
Well-known member
There is, of course, a difference between the actual number of cases confirmed by test - and the actual number of cases thought to be in the population - your graph doesn't really show that.
Actual number of cases in the UK at the peak of the first wave was thought to be in the region of 100,000 a day - whereas confirmed cases by test only around 5,000
Actual number of cases in the UK at the peak of the first wave was thought to be in the region of 100,000 a day - whereas confirmed cases by test only around 5,000
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
I take that point as that’s right, in addition though we are unearthing more of the positive people this time round
Billy Horner
Well-known member
I did wonder myself where that estimate made by Patrick Vallance had come from.
Obviously, the government's advisers will probably have access to a range of data sources that haven't yet been made public. However, my instinct is that they've basically undertaken a fairly simplistic extrapolation of the current new cases trend.
If you look at the daily confirmed case statistics, as of a couple of days ago, they were doubling pretty much every 14 days. If you roll that rate forward, it would take 52 days from two days ago to reach 49,000 cases per day, which would take us to 11 November.
However, some of the current rate of increase is accounted for by the ongoing increase in daily tests processed (it would a much more straighforward comparison if the government would release daily stats for the number of people tested). This data suggests that an increase in cases of around 33% would be expected every 14 days, due to increased testing.
What this means mathematically is that the 'real terms' increase in cases every 14 days is approximately 50%. On that basis, numbers would double in real terms every 24 days.
Presuming that both those trends continue, In order to get from the current 7-day average to an average of 49,000 new cases per day (in real terms) would take 90 days. This would take us to 19 December - just in time for Christmas!
Obviously, the government's advisers will probably have access to a range of data sources that haven't yet been made public. However, my instinct is that they've basically undertaken a fairly simplistic extrapolation of the current new cases trend.
If you look at the daily confirmed case statistics, as of a couple of days ago, they were doubling pretty much every 14 days. If you roll that rate forward, it would take 52 days from two days ago to reach 49,000 cases per day, which would take us to 11 November.
However, some of the current rate of increase is accounted for by the ongoing increase in daily tests processed (it would a much more straighforward comparison if the government would release daily stats for the number of people tested). This data suggests that an increase in cases of around 33% would be expected every 14 days, due to increased testing.
What this means mathematically is that the 'real terms' increase in cases every 14 days is approximately 50%. On that basis, numbers would double in real terms every 24 days.
Presuming that both those trends continue, In order to get from the current 7-day average to an average of 49,000 new cases per day (in real terms) would take 90 days. This would take us to 19 December - just in time for Christmas!
Week Ending 30/08/2020 - 8,706 total weekly cases
Week Ending 06/09/2020 - 12,685 total weekly cases (Increase of 45.7% from previous week)
Week Ending 13/09/2020 - 21,352 total weekly cases (Increase of 68.3% from previous week)
Week Ending 20/09/2020 - 25,753 total weekly cases (Increase of 20.6% from previous week)
Week Ending 27/09/2020 - 40,712 total weekly cases (Increase of 96.2% from previous week)
Week Ending 06/09/2020 - 12,685 total weekly cases (Increase of 45.7% from previous week)
Week Ending 13/09/2020 - 21,352 total weekly cases (Increase of 68.3% from previous week)
Week Ending 20/09/2020 - 25,753 total weekly cases (Increase of 20.6% from previous week)
Week Ending 27/09/2020 - 40,712 total weekly cases (Increase of 96.2% from previous week)
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
It’s not a fact either, as said above the number of cases in March and April are nowhere near represented on that graph.
Lefty
Well-known member
They are lab confirmed. What am I missing?
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
You can only lab confirm what you’ve tested, were weren’t testing on anything like the same scale in March and April as we are now, and we didn’t have the lab capacity we have now. Therefore the graph doesnt reflect the true number of cases in that period and is misleading when it comes to comparisons over its time frame.
The graph is a fact, it's not a graph of number of cases or estimated cases in the UK, it's a graph of the number of confirmed cases. The the graph is irrelevant if you can't make metal adjustments for what it is showing, and it's difficult to make time comparisons a an lot of the parameters have changed.
If we were doubling then with low testing and we're doubling now but with more testing, all it means is the numbers are more accurate now, with less of a lag.
I think estimates are saying we're "catching" 5-10x more people now, with tests, than we were in March, so around 20k cases now, is similar to 2k back then. But look at where we ended up at, within a month of being on 2k, we ended up near 10x that before the measures took hold. We don't want to be making that mistake again or the graph ends up something like the below (not factoring in for herd immunity and the likes). Death rate might go down, as we already killed off most of the vulnerable in the first **** up.
If we were doubling then with low testing and we're doubling now but with more testing, all it means is the numbers are more accurate now, with less of a lag.
I think estimates are saying we're "catching" 5-10x more people now, with tests, than we were in March, so around 20k cases now, is similar to 2k back then. But look at where we ended up at, within a month of being on 2k, we ended up near 10x that before the measures took hold. We don't want to be making that mistake again or the graph ends up something like the below (not factoring in for herd immunity and the likes). Death rate might go down, as we already killed off most of the vulnerable in the first **** up.
One key thing to factor in too, is when testing gets overwhelmed, the catch rate goes down, so even if we show a 60% increase Week on Week on confirmed tests, over a short timeframe, then you can pretty much assume that some areas will be overwhelmed (the worst areas too), so we're actually on an actual steeper curve than is shown. 60% on the graph can be 100% in the real world, if you run out of tests, or can only test in areas where nobody has the virus, otherwise you're back into Trumps world of "if we run out of tests/ don't test, then we don't have the virus".
Then you also have to factor in for the wasted tests, as tons of people get tested with no symptoms, or get tested each week due to their profession etc. That's one test not used on someone in Bolton or wherever the next hot spot is.
Then you also have to factor in for the wasted tests, as tons of people get tested with no symptoms, or get tested each week due to their profession etc. That's one test not used on someone in Bolton or wherever the next hot spot is.