‘Epidemic’ doubling every 7 days.....

thing is you can read any of the figures which suit your agenda. i did read an article by a senior programming manager who worked at google for 12 years who was saying that the Imperial college modelling software is so bad it shouldn't ever be used to predict anything. yet it got us locked down in the 1st place :poop:
 
Low_Key said:
thing is you can read any of the figures which suit your agenda. i did read an article by a senior programming manager who worked at google for 12 years who was saying that the Imperial college modelling software is so bad it shouldn't ever be used to predict anything. yet it got us locked down in the 1st place :poop:
Click to expand...

If you watched Panorama or read any of The Guardian articles a couple of months ago, it’s pretty clear that the Imperial College modelling played very little part in the decision to impose lockdown.

The modellers has been saying the exact same thing (500k deaths if no restrictions were imposed) since early February. At the time, the government was pretty much ignoring the virus and it wasn’t really on the public’s radar.

So if the modelling didn’t change then what did?

Apparently, public support for a lockdown (having seen what was happening in Italy) increases markedly over the following weeks. By mid-March, focus group data was telling the government it would be more popular to impose a full lockdown than not.

That’s what happens when you have a populist government that decides policy by focus group I’m afraid.
 
Statto1 said:
There probably wasn't as the death numbers were low, falling within the typical variance, and it takes a while for the deaths to kick in. But in March there were no excess deaths either, then look what happened. The time to react was in March, by April it was too late to stop it.

Also, social distancing for covid will also bring down other flu deaths and other deaths caused by activity, work and travel etc. Covid might be up 1k, but it might take other things down 1k, and be hidden etc.
Click to expand...
Except flu and pneumonia is killing 10 times as many people as those with a positive covid-19 test at the moment.
 
RandySavage said:
Except flu and pneumonia is killing 10 times as many people as those with a positive covid-19 test at the moment.
Click to expand...

It it? Where are the stats/ on that?

It certainly wasn't in April though, when Covid was killing more than everything else combined, that's what we're trying to avoid, you have to get it early before it gets out of control. Deaths lag cases by three weeks too, and our deaths are already rocketing, which means we had a case/ spread problem 3,5,7 weeks ago etc.
 
Last edited:
Laughing said:
Oh we have big problems, that is very likely true, I am just not sure about scientists making assumptions and not presenting those assumptions, if that was indeed what they did.
Click to expand...

It's all they can do, use various pieces to solve a puzzle, and it's very complex, way, way above the average persons mental capacity.

It's like on here, everyone is going bananas as they look at one piece of the puzzle and shout "it's a dog", without even thinking about the other 500 pieces.

There's probably 100 things effecting the current thinking/ modelling/ expected infections/ R, that would overwhelm most, that's why they don't share it.
 
Statto1 said:
It it? Where are the stats/ on that?

It certainly wasn't in April though, when Covid was killing more than everything else combined, that's what we're trying to avoid, you have to get it early before it gets out of control. Deaths lag cases by three weeks too, and our deaths are already rocketing, which means we had a case/ spread problem 3,5,7 weeks ago etc.
Click to expand...
I'd seen it reported by a journalist who works for the telegraph or the mail, forget which one now on my twitter feed. Not sure how true it is because you know 'newspapers'.
Doesn't matter anyways, according to Whitty and the like we will all be dead by January anyways.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top