Some answers to your questions here.
"Now that the UK has released the MoD Intelligence Report on the upcoming Mildly Offensive Season, I can now talk a bit more clearly about what I wrote about in the last month or so.
I find it amusing that the Punderati and "Expert Analysts" claimed that Russia would do a superduper massive spring offensive on a scale not even seen on Invasion day a year ago.
All realistic and as confirmed as can be numbers pointed towards it being completely impossible.
Somehow this influenced the Ukrainian Intelligence reporting, unto a point where they believed in it too.
The good that came out of it is that it was used as a means to give Ukraine the needed weapons for their own offensive later in the spring.
The Western Intelligence community was though quite surprised about all those mistakes by pundits, Ukrainians, "experts", etcetera. I think they need to relearn basic math skills.
On the Russian side their punditing propagandists obviously said there would be a big offensive, but even they were more sedate than the western pundits. Some of them even stated that this was a multiyear affair involving a long set of smaller advances.
When even Russian propaganda is more realistic it is rather something.
The Russians not officially affiliated with their state media went even further and described fairly exactly how limited the offensive would be, and many even pointed out that it would just squander Russias limited resources.
Strelkov as per usual was the most correct in his analysis and stated that the offensive might even be the cause of the collapse of the Russian army and Russia itself.
Now everyone has started to talk about a future upcoming massive general mobilisation in Russia.
I guess they need that to prop up their egos and save face.
Once more Strelkov is the unlikely source of the best analysis, he stated that it is basically a fevered dream since there is not enough equipment or ammunition production to sustain something like that.
In the real world Russia is likely to continue to mobilise and draft conscripts to somewhat sustain their forces from a numerical standpoint.
As I time and time have stated, Russia has lost the war, and now it is only a question about how stubborn they will be.
It is also a question about how fast the west can train and supply the Ukrainian army on new equipment.
A further point is the rather massive mobilisation that is currently going on in Ukraine for the summer and fall offensives, and that will take advantage of later western weapons packages.
And in regards of being stubborn, The West is building up its ordinance production suffuciently to be able to feed the Ukrainian army indefinitely.
Currently Ukraine are using 5000 to 6000 artillery shells per day, half Soviet and Half NATO-standard. At the end of the year Ukraine will be able to double that number.
I have previously harped on about precission of western artillery.
Currently Russia and Ukraine are using roughly the same amount of shells per day, but if we instead count shells on target Ukraine has a 3:1 advantage, it would be 5:1 if Ukraine only used western artillery.
Actually hitting your opponent? Who would've thunk that was important?
Ukrainian Spring Offensive
Unlike most "experts" and pundits believe Ukraine today has a numerical tank advantage on Russia.
And the advantage is increasing daily even without new western tanks.
The reason is threefold, Ukraine is repairing and building tanks of their own, Ukraine is receiving Soviet tanks from western countries, and Russia is helpful and donate quite a few tanks to be repaired and restored by the Ukrainians.
This means that Ukraine has enough armour for their Spring Offensive.
It has already sort of started, at least the preparatory stages of it, but the big push is coming later on.
Late march or early april is a good bet, but it all depends on the amount of rain that falls and how muddy things are locally in the path of the offensive.
Basically no, or very few western tanks will take part of this offensive.
The tanks was never intended for this offensive, they are for the later offensives when Ukrainian tank stores are depleted from the Spring Offensive.
Basically, there will be one or two western equipped armoured brigades participating.
The State of Russian Offensive
As Russia started their offensive they rapidly got bogged down both literally in the mud, and figuratively against the Ukrainian defences and counter-attacks.
At their best locations they are advancing a few hundred meters per day, and in some places they are not moving a single meter.
In places they are even advancing backwards due to lack of equipment.
As stated, the Russian politicians want Donbass taken before the end of March, it is totally impossible to do that with the manpower and equipment available, instead they are squandering their limited resources at an astounding rate.
Obviously the offensive is still building momentum, but since it is a very broad affair along the entire Western Front (Eastern from our perspective), it is lacking in cohesion and concetration.
It is doubtful that they will even be able to break through the Ukrainian lines enough to make any meaningful rapid advances.
But, be prepared for a month of Pundits doom and glooming about the unstoppable advance as the Russian army in places plod forward a few hundred meters per day.
I expect them to say that this proves that the Russian army is an unstoppable force.
In the real world of facts and figures it is clear that unless Russia unexpectedly find a huge bottle of Offensive Viagra to erect themselves with, this will be a very impotent affair.
Western Weapons Packages
Even the first Western tank package was astounding even to me.
Germany sending in 14 Leo 2Mk6s in March is fast, and on top of that the 180 something Leo 1s across the year is a powerful message. Obviously these will not be used against the more modern Russian tanks, but they are serviceable against the old stuff, and as an armour wall against defence lines.
Together with roughly 150 additional Leo 2s and 150 T-72s, this is a very powerful package.
But, here is my point.
It is "a" package. Germany openly now speaks about the 14 Leo 2Mk6s being the first of several packages to be delivered, same from many other Western countries.
Judging from the number of tank orders signed, over time the entire current Western fleet might go to Ukraine if Russia is stubborn enough.
We are obviously talking about a 3-4 year plan here for deliveries of roughly 500 tanks per year.
This is the message that we need to project towards Russia, a relentless wave of new equipment coming to Ukraine, slowly strangling Russia like an anaconda if they continue to be stubborn.
And with Stubborn here I am talking about a scenario where Ukraine has won the land war. It will not take more than a year after all. With stubborn I mean a Russia that continues to shell across their borders, and to send missiles here and there as fast as they can build them, or buy them from Iran and North Korea.
I am talking about Russia being so stubborn that Ukraine has to take a defensive zone around their country to safeguard civilians.
Russia must be brought to understanding that this level of Stubborn will not be permited, and that Ukraine will have the capability to solve that problem permanently.
This is why I am happy about the tank packages as I look into the future.
Airplanes
This is a point where I know what is going to come, and can't say a lot.
Ukraine will in the future receive airplanes, that is clear.
And it will be enough for their needs, both in the medium term and longterm.
What Ukraine will need are at least two different types of aircraft.
They need one with ground attack capability and that is equiped with Electronic Warfare equipment.
50 of those would make a big dent, and with a further 50-60 at a later stage.
Preferably these would be multirole capable and able to double as fighter jets.
Here it would have to be one of JAS-39/C Griffin, FA-18 Superhornet, or F-35s.
Let us just say that the F-35s are not gonna happen at this point in time for security reasons.
The other two are good possibilities.
50 pure fighter jets with an additional later 50 - 100.
These are purely there for denial of service for the Russian air force.
Here we are talking purely about F-16s.
Yes, there are Eurofighters, Rafales... etcetera, but these are not available in numbers required and in time.
All non F-16s would need to be built new since the west needs them, or they contain equipment that needs to be safeguarded from the Russians and the Chinese.
As soon as I can I will disclose the reasoning behind what Ukraine will receive, and why.
Let me just state that the Ukrainians are already training on the systems that they will receive.
GLSDBs, these will start to trickle in at the end of April by the looks of it.
It is a brand new system, so everything from launch vehicles to the missiles themselves will have to be newbuilds.
The brand new factory will over time be able to spin out 1000 of them per month, but it takes time to spool up such an enormous delivery and test chain.
Let us say that first month (May) will be 100 in Ukraine, and a rampup of about 100 per month from then on.
The effects of these missiles can't be overestimated. It will be the new goto-missile for Ukraine.
And for the Russians the effect will devastating even from the first missile. Having to move their logistics back from the 80km marker to the 150km marker will be an insane psychological blow.
Back when Himars came online it created such a mess that Ukraine could launch their big offensives taking back large areas.
Over time Russia could adapt to this change of logistics since it was still possible to stretch it since Himars is still shorter range than the famous 90km logisitics range of the Russian army.
150km will stretch that until things start to snap on an entirely different scale, Russia will have to pull off a rather surprising feat to get passed this hurdle.
Long term this is the main weapon if Russia decides to be Stubborn.
All that is needed is permitting Ukraine to use it to create a demilitarized zone 150km deep from their borders (without crossing the border even), and Russia will be forced to more or less depopulate the area over time.
300km+ missiles, well something will be delivered.
Still with the staunch order to not use it against Russian soil.
But, enough will be delivered to hit Crimea from current positions, and to hit the Kersh Bridge.
For the time being this will be very limited in numbers, and as soon as the GLSDBs can hit all of Crimea and the Bridge the deliveries will stop.
Longterm the deliveries might start again in case Russia is stubborn, and there is a need to hit deeper bases and missile launchers."
A bit later I will post a little gift.
raport.valisluureamet.ee
