Muttley
Well-known member
Not true. JC refused to confirm that he would use nukes, that's not the same.
The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
It’s not really. What looks to be an anti-US/west channel hosting Chomsky, who (whilst some of his stances are admirable) if his advice was followed Ukraine would be a Russian vassal once more. No thanks.
It overlooks the simple fact that the West were listening in to Putin's phone for a very long time, which is how they knew, chapter and verse, what his plans were before the invasion ... and they didn't stop at Ukraine.
Anyway, this came in last night. Not sure I'm with him on all of his thoughts abot what the Leadership/Security services are upt to. But then, he knows the workings better than I do.
"WTF!!
Well, I did not know what else to call this edition of my endless series of musings.
The reasons will become obvious later on.
Russia is following exactly the battle plan that they in their wisdom told everyone about.
This means that the Ukrainian forces was well prepared to receive them.
Kreminna
Here Ukraine had prepared an almost completely encircling fireline covering from the Southern forrest approach up to the road northwards.
But, to hasten the closing of the gap and meet up with the upwards moving part of the pincer from Soledar Russia concentrated all their efforts, at least for now, on going through the forrest with mechanized columns.
Now ponder what I just wrote. Mechanized and Forrest being the lead words.
Plodding through a forrest is insanely slow with armour, and if your enemy is pouring shells on your plodding column your armour will soon be pining for the Fiords.
The forrests are now littered with tanks and BMTs that are merrily burning.
It is basically a rehash of the Battle of Bastogne.
Russia has been able to move a few hundred meters towards the west as a consolation price of sorts.
Soledar
Instead of using the roads towards the north and the west, Russians decided to go up hills towards the northwest to take the Ukrainian artillery strongholds. It is working out less than spiffingly for them.
The Russians managed to get 100 meters and take two small groups of houses in a valley in direct line of fire from the Ukrainian artillery.
Bakhmut
Here the Russian offensive heralded as the end of the resistance of Bakhmut, the holy offensive to finally take Bakhmut...
Ran into a massive Ukrainian reinforcement sent from the west.
By now Ukraine are certain enough that Belarus will not be an item, so half the units from that front moved in to counter-attack in Bakhmut.
Let us just say that the Battle for Bakhmut got even bloodier and more horrendous, and that now it is the Russians being slowly pushed backwards from the southern pincer leg.
I do though expect that Ukraine will still fall back behind the river dividing the City and hold there, but that they will push back that southern Russian bulge.
This would leave the front straighter, and more easy to defend.
Vuhledar
Well, I guess you guys have seen the videos...
Tightly grouped lumps of armour trying to push forward using the same road, the same tactics, the same speed, against prepositioned and presighted Ukrainian artillery.
Every time they are massacred, up to 30 vehicles per wave, four exactly same waves per day, day after day.
This is just moroonic.
But, it is getting even better.
This is the second time Russia is doing this exact same thing, remember that they did it 3 months ago and lost a sizeable chunk of an army... well, here goes the other half of that army.
Strelkov is openly calling the Russian army leadership "Cretins" and stating that Russia has already lost thanks to them.
Once again Strelkov is dead on the money correct.
The attacks are though worse now, because the current batch of soldiers are so porely trained that during most attacks their own armour run over their own infantry since the drivers can't drive their armed vehicles and tanks. Many Russians are made into smoothie by the tracked vehicles.
Zhaporizhzhia
Here the attacks are lighter, so they are probably intended to pin the Ukrainian forces down.
Quite unnessecary since the Ukrainian army here is not going anywhere, except forward.
Kharkiv
There is a small chance that Russia will try to attack Kharkiv from Russia to the North, but that attack will probably happen only if the Luhansk group can smash through.
At least that would be the sane option, but to quote Strelkov... "Cretins".
Conclusion
A few of my colleagues are stating that Russias political leadership are ordering attacks without knowing the shape of the Russian army, and that forces the field commanders in turn to squander their limited resources.
I am now firmly believing that this is just so much hogswallop.
Of course the leadership knows the situation at least broadly.
And they have known this since the start of the war.
I believe that initially the plan was indeed to win the war, at least take everything east of Dnipro, and creating a landbridge to Moldova for a future attack.
But as this failed something turned incredibly dark and sinister inside of Russia as even their limited goal of taking all of Donbass failed during the late spring and summer.
I now believe that Russia want to loose, and loose badly at that.
The goal now is to crush the Russian army, and then close down the country under Security Services (FSB etcetera) rule.
And I am not here talking about going for a Soviet Union 2.0, no I am now believing they are going for North Korea as a rolemodel.
Here it is good to understand that the FSB, GRU, etcetera, hate the army with a vengeance.
Even since the days of Beria they tried to subsume the army through any means possible.
Remember that during WWII you had commissars and KGB barrier soldiers massacering the regular army...
They have not forgotten that it was the Army that had Beria arrested as Stalin died, nor that it was the regular army that stopped the coup against Gorbachev.
By now Moscow is run by the Services, they are not friendly in between each other, but they seem to have stopped their infighting and are now forcing the army into a massacre against superior Ukrainian troops and materiele.
The next month or so will be the last real fight of the Russian army, after that it is basically gone as a fighting force, and it will take decades to replenish under their new FSB overlords.
Bonus musing
The Panther KF51 is the new German tank-monster.
The first true fifth generation Main Battle Tank (MBT).
It is based on the tried and tested titanium hull version of the Leo 2.
It has been fitted with a monster of a 130mm autogun, AI-weapons and fire control, missiles, autonomous target drones.
Passive Hull protection, reactive armour and active defence systems, so 3 layers of protection.
The Wallenbergs did what they do best. Previously the hull, gun and turret was made by 3 separate companies named Rheinmetall, KraussMaffei and Wegman.
Now they are one entity.
And they are now negotiating arming Ukraine with these Hell Class tanks.
The real kicker here is that they will be built in a brand new tank factory in Kyiv, circumventing any Scholzing.
And since it is the Wallenbergs, resources are not an issue in any way, sort, or form.
First tank will run off the production line in 15 months.
It is impervious to any Russian tank, so even a few initial ones with teething problems will still be able to crush whatever remains of the Russian armour in weeks.
If the contract is signed, this is the definite point when Ukraine will win even the most stubborn case of Russianism.
Now that it is announced by the UK I can at least say which two aircraft are being candidates for the ground attack role.
UK has 3 different types.
F-35, and just no...
Eurofighter Typhoon
Panavia Tornado GR4
Technically the Tornados are retired since 2019, so they would need to be refurbished, but they do exist in quite nice numbers in several countries.
Eurofighters would be a good solution, but expensive, since they are being replaced over time with F-35s.
The Tornados are fairly sucky as Fighters, but sollid as ground attack platforms.
The Eurofighter is a true multirole.
Germany is pushing for the Tornados since they still use them, but they just have a few due to Germany basically not having an air force due to mismanagement.
UK is pushing for the Eurofighters, and those can be delivered fast.
What decides is that the Ukrainian pilots are already training on their new aircrafts.
Read into this what you wish.
But... remember that these are not the only planes available.
Yes, I freely admit to being a tease here. "
I suspect I know what he's hinting at here. As I say, he knows better than I the bizarre workings of the Russian power game, but I struggle with the concept of the FSB/GRU/KGB factions all uniting to see that the army is decimated. Why would you mobilise? (mind you, it seems the mobilisation was largely stopped).
If he is right, then Girkin is being used as a mouthpiece to tell the Russian people how crap their army is ... and that might explain why he is able to say all this stuff with impunity I suppose.
The old schoolers at the top, who all stand to be arrested and tried in the Hague, are mostly vehemently anti-west and are all linked to one branch of the security services or another (aside from Gerasimov). Something doesn't stack up for sure, but I'm not sure about our man's conclusions.
Just one additional tidbit. Prighozin's press office were asked why the prison recruiting scheme was over. Their written response was that "following a Wagner commercial, they have recieved 10 million applications from the USA, of which they are looking to accept 1 million". Brilliant. I wonder if they mistook a denial of service attack for applications.
Anyway, this came in last night. Not sure I'm with him on all of his thoughts abot what the Leadership/Security services are upt to. But then, he knows the workings better than I do.
"WTF!!
Well, I did not know what else to call this edition of my endless series of musings.
The reasons will become obvious later on.
Russia is following exactly the battle plan that they in their wisdom told everyone about.
This means that the Ukrainian forces was well prepared to receive them.
Kreminna
Here Ukraine had prepared an almost completely encircling fireline covering from the Southern forrest approach up to the road northwards.
But, to hasten the closing of the gap and meet up with the upwards moving part of the pincer from Soledar Russia concentrated all their efforts, at least for now, on going through the forrest with mechanized columns.
Now ponder what I just wrote. Mechanized and Forrest being the lead words.
Plodding through a forrest is insanely slow with armour, and if your enemy is pouring shells on your plodding column your armour will soon be pining for the Fiords.
The forrests are now littered with tanks and BMTs that are merrily burning.
It is basically a rehash of the Battle of Bastogne.
Russia has been able to move a few hundred meters towards the west as a consolation price of sorts.
Soledar
Instead of using the roads towards the north and the west, Russians decided to go up hills towards the northwest to take the Ukrainian artillery strongholds. It is working out less than spiffingly for them.
The Russians managed to get 100 meters and take two small groups of houses in a valley in direct line of fire from the Ukrainian artillery.
Bakhmut
Here the Russian offensive heralded as the end of the resistance of Bakhmut, the holy offensive to finally take Bakhmut...
Ran into a massive Ukrainian reinforcement sent from the west.
By now Ukraine are certain enough that Belarus will not be an item, so half the units from that front moved in to counter-attack in Bakhmut.
Let us just say that the Battle for Bakhmut got even bloodier and more horrendous, and that now it is the Russians being slowly pushed backwards from the southern pincer leg.
I do though expect that Ukraine will still fall back behind the river dividing the City and hold there, but that they will push back that southern Russian bulge.
This would leave the front straighter, and more easy to defend.
Vuhledar
Well, I guess you guys have seen the videos...
Tightly grouped lumps of armour trying to push forward using the same road, the same tactics, the same speed, against prepositioned and presighted Ukrainian artillery.
Every time they are massacred, up to 30 vehicles per wave, four exactly same waves per day, day after day.
This is just moroonic.
But, it is getting even better.
This is the second time Russia is doing this exact same thing, remember that they did it 3 months ago and lost a sizeable chunk of an army... well, here goes the other half of that army.
Strelkov is openly calling the Russian army leadership "Cretins" and stating that Russia has already lost thanks to them.
Once again Strelkov is dead on the money correct.
The attacks are though worse now, because the current batch of soldiers are so porely trained that during most attacks their own armour run over their own infantry since the drivers can't drive their armed vehicles and tanks. Many Russians are made into smoothie by the tracked vehicles.
Zhaporizhzhia
Here the attacks are lighter, so they are probably intended to pin the Ukrainian forces down.
Quite unnessecary since the Ukrainian army here is not going anywhere, except forward.
Kharkiv
There is a small chance that Russia will try to attack Kharkiv from Russia to the North, but that attack will probably happen only if the Luhansk group can smash through.
At least that would be the sane option, but to quote Strelkov... "Cretins".
Conclusion
A few of my colleagues are stating that Russias political leadership are ordering attacks without knowing the shape of the Russian army, and that forces the field commanders in turn to squander their limited resources.
I am now firmly believing that this is just so much hogswallop.
Of course the leadership knows the situation at least broadly.
And they have known this since the start of the war.
I believe that initially the plan was indeed to win the war, at least take everything east of Dnipro, and creating a landbridge to Moldova for a future attack.
But as this failed something turned incredibly dark and sinister inside of Russia as even their limited goal of taking all of Donbass failed during the late spring and summer.
I now believe that Russia want to loose, and loose badly at that.
The goal now is to crush the Russian army, and then close down the country under Security Services (FSB etcetera) rule.
And I am not here talking about going for a Soviet Union 2.0, no I am now believing they are going for North Korea as a rolemodel.
Here it is good to understand that the FSB, GRU, etcetera, hate the army with a vengeance.
Even since the days of Beria they tried to subsume the army through any means possible.
Remember that during WWII you had commissars and KGB barrier soldiers massacering the regular army...
They have not forgotten that it was the Army that had Beria arrested as Stalin died, nor that it was the regular army that stopped the coup against Gorbachev.
By now Moscow is run by the Services, they are not friendly in between each other, but they seem to have stopped their infighting and are now forcing the army into a massacre against superior Ukrainian troops and materiele.
The next month or so will be the last real fight of the Russian army, after that it is basically gone as a fighting force, and it will take decades to replenish under their new FSB overlords.
Bonus musing
The Panther KF51 is the new German tank-monster.
The first true fifth generation Main Battle Tank (MBT).
It is based on the tried and tested titanium hull version of the Leo 2.
It has been fitted with a monster of a 130mm autogun, AI-weapons and fire control, missiles, autonomous target drones.
Passive Hull protection, reactive armour and active defence systems, so 3 layers of protection.
The Wallenbergs did what they do best. Previously the hull, gun and turret was made by 3 separate companies named Rheinmetall, KraussMaffei and Wegman.
Now they are one entity.
And they are now negotiating arming Ukraine with these Hell Class tanks.
The real kicker here is that they will be built in a brand new tank factory in Kyiv, circumventing any Scholzing.
And since it is the Wallenbergs, resources are not an issue in any way, sort, or form.
First tank will run off the production line in 15 months.
It is impervious to any Russian tank, so even a few initial ones with teething problems will still be able to crush whatever remains of the Russian armour in weeks.
If the contract is signed, this is the definite point when Ukraine will win even the most stubborn case of Russianism.
Now that it is announced by the UK I can at least say which two aircraft are being candidates for the ground attack role.
UK has 3 different types.
F-35, and just no...
Eurofighter Typhoon
Panavia Tornado GR4
Technically the Tornados are retired since 2019, so they would need to be refurbished, but they do exist in quite nice numbers in several countries.
Eurofighters would be a good solution, but expensive, since they are being replaced over time with F-35s.
The Tornados are fairly sucky as Fighters, but sollid as ground attack platforms.
The Eurofighter is a true multirole.
Germany is pushing for the Tornados since they still use them, but they just have a few due to Germany basically not having an air force due to mismanagement.
UK is pushing for the Eurofighters, and those can be delivered fast.
What decides is that the Ukrainian pilots are already training on their new aircrafts.
Read into this what you wish.
But... remember that these are not the only planes available.
Yes, I freely admit to being a tease here. "
I suspect I know what he's hinting at here. As I say, he knows better than I the bizarre workings of the Russian power game, but I struggle with the concept of the FSB/GRU/KGB factions all uniting to see that the army is decimated. Why would you mobilise? (mind you, it seems the mobilisation was largely stopped).
If he is right, then Girkin is being used as a mouthpiece to tell the Russian people how crap their army is ... and that might explain why he is able to say all this stuff with impunity I suppose.
The old schoolers at the top, who all stand to be arrested and tried in the Hague, are mostly vehemently anti-west and are all linked to one branch of the security services or another (aside from Gerasimov). Something doesn't stack up for sure, but I'm not sure about our man's conclusions.
Just one additional tidbit. Prighozin's press office were asked why the prison recruiting scheme was over. Their written response was that "following a Wagner commercial, they have recieved 10 million applications from the USA, of which they are looking to accept 1 million". Brilliant. I wonder if they mistook a denial of service attack for applications.
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It overlooks the simple fact that the West were listening in to Putin's phone for a very long time, which is how they knew, chapter and verse, what his plans were before the invasion ... and they didn't stop at Ukraine
Hopefully they will release the audio of all of Putins plans,would clear up any ambiguity and shut down the conspiracy theorists once and for all,just hope the tapes werent put in the same locker as the evidence of WMD from Iraq.
Hopefully they will release the audio of all of Putins plans,would clear up any ambiguity and shut down the conspiracy theorists once and for all,just hope the tapes werent put in the same locker as the evidence of WMD from Iraq.
Very optimistic compared to the mainstream media but no less appreciated and fascinating nonetheless
The mainstream media is populated by people like me who don't actually know very much, but are paid to create entertaining content for a voracious but even less well informed audience.
Our man is paid to analyse military activity and intel for governmental (and "extra-governmental") audiences.
Ok, in these missives, you are getting his personal take on that intel, but you can be certain that it's more accurate than BBC, Guardian, Times, Reuters etc sources.
Hap
Well-known member
I still find it remarkable, and amusing, that a football board is the place to find this level and amount of info
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
Lefty
Well-known member
That's pretty much on the money, although I thought the attack began on 24th Feb, not 22nd?
It did, but I remember him telling me the 24th ... not sure if it was his error or typo. Not why I removed the post though.
Lefty
Well-known member
Just had a look and Russia proclaimed the Donbass parts already 'invaded' as officially part of Russia on 21st, then moved troops in on 22nd, though the actual invasion of the other parts of Ukraine didn't start until 24th.
That might account for it. I can't remember now. I scrolled back through some pretty amazing stuff. I'd forgotten just how disastrous those first two weeks were for the Russian military. Fairly early on Shoigu was having a heart attack and Gerasimov went to pieces when his only son, General Vitaly Gerasimov was killed. The memes with Ukrainian farmers and babuskas claiming tanks were happening by early March. I'd also forgotten that my fat, middle aged mate was actually armed and on full combat alert and stationed in a Bond villain style naval base inside an island in the Stockholm archipelago. They really saw an invasion of Gotland as a distinct likelihood if the conflict broadened to the Baltic.
Thankfully he's in a more besuited role now.
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Decent_Left
Well-known member
Rewatching the link you had to the BBC piece confirmed to me how opposite the tone was from all the other sources I read. I think this has to do with “immeadiacy”.
We all want this to be over as quickly as possible but it simply won’t be.
So a pitched pointless constant attempt to secure a Russian “victory” in a fixed point like Bhakmut with horrendous casualties on both sides inc many civilians can be turned into a news article as a cypher for the whole thing.
Propaganda from both sides - putin “I’ve got nukes” Zelensky “give me airplanes” is also treated as newsworthy in the same way a Houchen PR release about the airport is by the mainstream media, as an excitable update.
I don’t see how a mainstream broadcaster can actually inform the broader context on a more regular basis without devoting 24 hour rolling updates on every detail many of us are picking up from the open source area from both sides.
I think we all realise how this could still go horribly wrong for Ukraine, but the sources many of us use from Borolads mate to Oryx, even Jomini of the West is over his illness and publishing again, do provide us with the optimism that eventually, not tomorrow or next week or month, but eventually Ukraine will win.
None of know what that win will actually look like so when the end does happen we will all be able to say we were right (tempted to include a sarky comment about the stoppers if negotiations are involved which I think will certainly happen)
TheOccasionalSpectator
New member
As a new member on here I promised myself not to get involved in anything other than football related comment.
The end? is the first thing I read now.
The end? is the first thing I read now.
streethalo
Member
Because it is the best
There may be a hiatus in posting from my chum for a short while. Let's just say matters of a conjugal nature will be his overwhelming focus in the immediate future.
Red_is_best
Well-known member
For all the military, logistical, and political insight on here that is guardedly optimistic about the outcome of this devastating and horrific Russian aggression, I find the kind of stories here to be utterly depressing:
Ukraine war: Belgorod locals live in fear but won't blame Putin https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64543618
I am sure this blinkered view is wide-spread throughout Russia. I can’t see any easy way to counter it and fear that, unless a way can be found, nothing will ever change long-term.
We need this generation of ex- KGB colonels, with their USSR rebirth fervency to be gone, enabling a different mind set to prevail.
Does any of the current western strategic thinking include how to win this battle of hearts and minds?
By the way, has anyone watched BBC’ s ‘Putin v The West’? From it I took that, whatever we else we might think about the evil Putin, he played the western powers brilliantly.
Ukraine war: Belgorod locals live in fear but won't blame Putin https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64543618
I am sure this blinkered view is wide-spread throughout Russia. I can’t see any easy way to counter it and fear that, unless a way can be found, nothing will ever change long-term.
We need this generation of ex- KGB colonels, with their USSR rebirth fervency to be gone, enabling a different mind set to prevail.
Does any of the current western strategic thinking include how to win this battle of hearts and minds?
By the way, has anyone watched BBC’ s ‘Putin v The West’? From it I took that, whatever we else we might think about the evil Putin, he played the western powers brilliantly.
A short diversion. Girkin/Strelkov on body doubles.
Not sure how old this is, but re-tweeted recently.
Not sure how old this is, but re-tweeted recently.
TheOccasionalSpectator
New member
I very rarely read books but about 20 years ago (to kill my commute) I read Stalingrad by Antony Beevor. Other than watching war films as a kid I have no real interest in such conflicts, but It was totally gripping such that I missed my stop at London Bridge a few times! From memory it feels a bit like role reversal for Russia this time...