YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!

Interesting that the dismayed figure for the conservatives hasn't actually gone up that much since 2019. I suppose it was already pretty high according to that. But still, with everything thats happened between now and then you'd think more than 6% would have added to that number.
 
SuperStu said:
Interesting that the dismayed figure for the conservatives hasn't actually gone up that much since 2019. I suppose it was already pretty high according to that. But still, with everything thats happened between now and then you'd think more than 6% would have added to that number.
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The issue with the entire poll is the "neutral" position is a positive. For the negative position you only have the extreme, which will put people off selecting a response or conversely force people into a certain response.

It requires something like "I would be disappointed" as a counter to "I wouldn't mind".
 
SuperStu said:
Interesting that the dismayed figure for the conservatives hasn't actually gone up that much since 2019. I suppose it was already pretty high according to that. But still, with everything thats happened between now and then you'd think more than 6% would have added to that number.
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There are a lot of shy Tories and the entire strategy of the Conservative Party will be aimed at winning them back. That is very doable as people want to vote for the Party they identify with. Labour will get most votes for sure and be the largest Party, but a hung Parliament is definitely still a significant possibility, given the FPTP system. All it will take is the govt to give their supporters something positive on the economy for shy Tories to be able to tell themselves they can vote for their preferred Party again.
 
Chris_Boro said:
The issue with the entire poll is the "neutral" position is a positive. For the negative position you only have the extreme, which will put people off selecting a response or conversely force people into a certain response.

It requires something like "I would be disappointed" as a counter to "I wouldn't mind".
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I don't know about that, I think in the context surely respondents would understand "I wouldn't mind" to be a no opinion answer rather than in a positive way.
 
Lefty said:
There are a lot of shy Tories and the entire strategy of the Conservative Party will be aimed at winning them back. That is very doable as people want to vote for the Party they identify with. Labour will get most votes for sure and be the largest Party, but a hung Parliament is definitely still a significant possibility, given the FPTP system. All it will take is the govt to give their supporters something positive on the economy for shy Tories to be able to tell themselves they can vote for their preferred Party again.
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You're right about shy Tories, was the same with some of the brexit folk. Same for racists too I suppose, I've met loads of them, but none of them would say they were racist in a poll. I think just lot of people are really selfish, especially when they actually have something, but they absolutely hate admitting it.

There are a lot of old Tories too though, and as soon as they realise that they're old and need a functioning NHS they will be scared to vote Tory, or at least they should be. They possibly won't mind, but they'll be the first ones to whinge when there is no NHS or staff to look after them. Private costs will get completely jacked too, the worse the NHS gets. Same with energy bills etc, they're all still going to be paying those, and will be getting battered by inflation. Couple that with pensions taking a massive hit due to the crap markets and there will be loads more in the hole.

Hopefully, these shy Tories have younger families who will tell their parents/ grandparents how much they're getting screwed over. Nothing will be getting passed down to their childeren/ grandchildren either, as it will all get eaten away with care costs, as that system is broke too. This might be able to convince enough of them not to vote at all, which would be a start.

I think the Tories are too much in the hole, they will claw some back, basically as they can't really get any lower, but still see Labour getting 375-400 seats, maybe even more if reform take some votes from the RWNJ's.
 
Lefty said:
There are a lot of shy Tories and the entire strategy of the Conservative Party will be aimed at winning them back. That is very doable as people want to vote for the Party they identify with. Labour will get most votes for sure and be the largest Party, but a hung Parliament is definitely still a significant possibility, given the FPTP system. All it will take is the govt to give their supporters something positive on the economy for shy Tories to be able to tell themselves they can vote for their preferred Party again.
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Shy Tories is what I worry about too. Two years to woo them - if they were ever actually tempted not to vote Tory anyway, despite what their responses in the polls are
 
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SuperStu said:
I don't know about that, I think in the context surely respondents would understand "I wouldn't mind" to be a no opinion answer rather than in a positive way.
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I wouldn’t mind in this context is definitely a net positive response. Saying I wouldn't mind to something is an acceptance of the statement or suggestion.

I don't care or I am indifferent would be a clearer neutral response.

Polls like this are badly worded, generally done intentionally. Answers should not be worded as a feeling or emotion.
 
We dont have shy tories where I live. They are OK with their political choices, largely. I would love central beds to switch at the next election.

I would imagine shy tories are only a thing in labour constituencies.
 
Laughing said:
I would imagine shy tories are only a thing in labour constituencies.
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That's a good point, especially supposed red wall seats, which I suppose covers most of the Teesside area traditionally, where I guess most of us are from/ live.

I suppose loads will expect constituencies to change over though, so even in current blue seats now, you will have a fair few who still won't admit they're a blue, as they know the tide is against them. I suppose it's a good thing though, if people aren't openly admitting they're voting tory in these places, as it will really stop momentum.

I know quite a few who never said they voted Tory in 2017 or 2019 openly at the time, but now openly say they will vote labour. Big difference between saying nothing, and saying you'll vote against what you did last time.
 
Andy_W said:
That's a good point.

I suppose loads will expect constituencies to change over though, so even in current blue seats now, you will have a fair few who still won't admit they're a blue, as they know the tide is against them.
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Mayhap. What I have noticed is politics isn't discussed in the pub much anymore.

One of my mates and I like a good bicker over politics. Others used to join in, now not so much. I suppose you could describe them as shy tories.
 
Laughing said:
Mayhap. What I have noticed is politics isn't discussed in the pub much anymore.

One of my mates and I like a good bicker over politics. Others used to join in, now not so much. I suppose you could describe them as shy tories.
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I rewrote my post as you replied, should have known you would have been quick on the button :)

What I changed it to pretty much says what you've just wrote there.

Loads of my mates and people who I know who would not normally discuss politics are now saying they would vote for anyone (other than reform) to get the Tories out. The only people I know who won't/ don't discuss politics now are people I know who are tories, or who are closet tories, I expect. Don't know any shy potential labour (anti tory) voters, which is good for momentum I suppose.
 
Andy_W said:
I rewrote my post as you replied, should have known you would have been quick on the button :)

What I changed it to pretty much says what you've just wrote there.

Loads of my mates and people who I know who would not normally discuss politics are now saying they would vote for anyone (other than reform) to get the Tories out. The only people I know who won't/ don't discuss politics now are people I know who are tories, or who are closet tories, I expect. Don't know any shy potential labour (anti tory) voters, which is good for momentum I suppose.
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I would be amazed if the tories get anywhere near stopping labour getting a healthy working majority. The gap in the polls is staying pretty solid, moving a point or two either way but not closing.

The by-elections in spring will hammer the tories, and I suspect that will effect the polls in Labours favour. I imagine plenty of people who don't follow politics, will see the tories get hammerred and just assume they must be crap.

Of cours the polls will close when the tory war machine cranks up before the next election, but they are way too far behind.
 
Laughing said:
I would be amazed if the tories get anywhere near stopping labour getting a healthy working majority. The gap in the polls is staying pretty solid, moving a point or two either way but not closing.

The by-elections in spring will hammer the tories, and I suspect that will effect the polls in Labours favour. I imagine plenty of people who don't follow politics, will see the tories get hammerred and just assume they must be crap.

Of cours the polls will close when the tory war machine cranks up before the next election, but they are way too far behind.
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100%

They can't cath this up, things are just too bad, and won't get much better in the next two years. Probably won't even get much better in the 5 years after that, which is my main worry for Labour, they're going to have one hell of a hole to plug, or lots of big holes, it's going to be a rough term against the right wing press.
 
Pretty sure Best For Britain recently did some polling that concluded that many formerly Tory constituencies that were favouring Labour had a lot of 'don't knows' - sometimes 30% - who were mostly shy Tories and also were 80%+ intending to vote one way or another.

Currently they have been not put off Labour by Starmer the same way Corbyn did. At the same time the incompetence and corruption had them very angry with the Tories, not to mention a perceived abandoning of traditional Tory values. Both of these are reversible, so a lot of constituencies are still in the balance. They have lost the Red Wall ones though.
 
Andy_W said:
100%

They can't cath this up, things are just too bad, and won't get much better in the next two years. Probably won't even get much better in the 5 years after that, which is my main worry for Labour, they're going to have one hell of a hole to plug, or lots of big holes, it's going to be a rough term against the right wing press.
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I'm not so sure. When the election is near the tory press will be spewing lies, accusing Starmer of every crime under the sun and generally trying to frighten unthinking idiots into believing the tory scam all over again, even though the country will have all but collapsed by then.
 
SuperStu said:
Interesting that the dismayed figure for the conservatives hasn't actually gone up that much since 2019. I suppose it was already pretty high according to that. But still, with everything thats happened between now and then you'd think more than 6% would have added to that number.
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Plenty of Tories out there will think they have done a generally good job and Boris was just unlucky with partygate.

Foodbanks, poverty and a neglected NHS?? Those things won’t worry them.
 
ThePrisoner said:
When the election is near the tory press will be spewing lies, accusing Starmer of every crime under the sun and generally trying to frighten unthinking idiots into believing the tory scam all over again
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And this is why Starmer is doing exactly the right thing in playing things carefully, not committing to nationalising this or spending money on that. Just don't give them a target. The Tories are going down... hard.
 
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