Is Sam Surridge any good - his stats don’t excite me !
Here’s his combined Championship shot map.. it is an impressive collection of high quality chances, often inside the six-yard box and rarely outside the penalty area.
Surridge took 49 attempts at goal for Swansea and Bournemouth in the Championship, which equates to around 2.2 attempts per full match, scoring eight times. He’s predominately right footed, 30 shots compared to 8 with his left and the remaining 11 were headers. All bar ten attempts were assisted by a teammate, so he was
reliant on a steady stream of opportunities.
He was caught offside twice every three complete matches, which in an era where the officials are reluctant to call the offense indicates
he tends to play on the last defender.
Once we delve into the expected goals figures, it quickly becomes apparent why Surridge has impressed our scouting operation.
Although he took penalties at Yeovil, there are no penalty kicks to artificially boost Surridge’s xG in the Championship and neither are direct free kicks part of his scoring metrics. 42 out of 49 originated from regular, open play.
His xG per attempt is 0.2,
which is huge. Surridge certainly has the knack of being available in very good scoring positions, close to the goal. As a comparison, a shot from the edge of the box registers just 0.05 xG, so his goal poaching instinct, first demonstrated in League Two has thrived up two divisions in class.
But it is Surridge’s xG per 90 number from his two spells in the Championship that suggest that we may have finally secured a longterm solution to our dearth of scoring since selling Patrick Bamford to Leeds at cost price.
Overall across both seasons, Surridge averages 0.47 xG per 90. Once again an excellent figure.
It suggests a scoring rate of one goal every two and a bit matches and gives substance to the player’s ambition to become a 20 goal a season player.
Surridge would have ranked fourth with his non-penalty xG per 90 scoring rate in the 2019/20 Championship season at Swansea and 9th the following year with Bournemouth, for players who had played at least 700 minutes of football.
He’s a potential gem, who may have slipped under the scouting radar because of his youth, his lack of minutes, relative to older rivals and the pre-eminence of his strike partner at Bournemouth, the equally youthful, Dominic Solanke.
Using current and Stoke strikers as a benchmark, the quality and quantity of chances which fell to Surridge per 90 minutes, exceeds by some distance those achieved by Gregory, Afobe and Vokes, both as 22 year old players and during their time at Stoke.. he also eclipses the xG numbers for both Fletcher and Campbell, (although with due respect to the latter, Tyrese has proved to be exceptionally clinical with the chances that have fallen his way).
24 year old 6'3 held back by his young age and preference for experience in the premier league. He's a more polished Emil Riis with experience at a higher level he's cheaper and a better bet. He fits into the squad which we are building. He's fit for purpose.