SmallTown
Well-known member
I'm not. Just pointing out, as usual, that's its a silly thing to suggest a man doing so well in the polls could never steer his party to an election. You know me, I'm against the petty infighting that enables the Tories
Tories close gap on Labour to 1 point
- Thread starter TeessideCleveland
- Start date
Lets see where the polls are in a few weeks when the medias back to it's usual MO of treating the new tory leader like a cancer curing puppy.
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
SmallTown
Well-known member
Its almost like you want Labour to lose. But yeah I agree. There will be a dip when the new fascist gets their coronation
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
I am explaining how the system works, you claiming it's b***ks doesn't change the reality of how the process works. If an ammendment is passed then the speaker will not choose another ammendment to the same clause, nor will the speaker accept numerous ammendments to the same clause to be debated repeatedly.
If Labour whipped to vote for this Lib Dem ammendment the Tories would've responded in kind.
My comments have nothing to do with my own personal views, this is the way the HOL works and has done regardless of which party is in power.
The mainstream media have not mentioned this as it's simply part of the process that I have now explained at length and doesn't mean that Labour/Starmer is against free school meals, no matter how much you want to believe it does.
I'll just add that bills going through the Lords have time limits, they have many clauses that will be debated and each debate is given a set amount of time. The opposition parties in the Lords main aim is to have a bill "ping ponged" back to the Commons, which allows for greater scope to push for ammendments or even whole bills to be scrapped/changed.
If not, then they get a second bite at the cherry in the Lords.
Last edited:
BoroMart
Well-known member
It ain't over until the fat lady sings, but after 12 years of tory fookuppery, corruption, failure, economic downturn, 200k dead to covid, Johnon's lying that's a big difference to milliband, who just had 5 years of a LD backed up government to fight against and the Tories could and did blame some stuff on LD. So she must be at stage right, doing vocal exercises, and expecting her cue.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Just to use the "SpyCops" bill I linked as an example. At Committee stage, 89 ammendments were tabled, a further 49 at Report stage and another 8 at the 3rd Reading.
Most of these would be wording tweeks, filling a session with small, fairly pointless ammendments is a common tactic to either talk out a session or delay a bill entirely. What ammendments are chosen for debate is for the Lords speaker to determine, just like in the Commons.
Just checked the Schools Bill, 310 ammendments at Committee stage and a further 133 at Report stage.
Most of these would be wording tweeks, filling a session with small, fairly pointless ammendments is a common tactic to either talk out a session or delay a bill entirely. What ammendments are chosen for debate is for the Lords speaker to determine, just like in the Commons.
Just checked the Schools Bill, 310 ammendments at Committee stage and a further 133 at Report stage.
Last edited:
Come on Chris think about it. If an amendment is brought up, voted on, and rejected, is the speaker any more likely to choose another similar amendment?
Addressed that in my post #379.
Addressed that in my post #379.
Try responding to what people are actually saying instead of what you'd like them to have said.
I want the tories to lose, whichever colour ties they're wearing.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Why won't they? They're polling better now than at any point in the last 7 years (which is where the chart below stops)
What do you mean by win? A majority, or more seats than the Tories?
Labour might not get an overall majority (I still think they will), but either way they will get more seats than the Tories, and get the Tories out, which is a win to me (and should be to Labour voters). That would also be one hell of a recovery, more than most could have expected, so I'm not sure why you would highlight Starmer, seemingly as a problem.
Labour were 163 seats behind at the last GE, now they're predicted to have a lead of 63, which is a change of 226, there hasn't been a change like that since Blair won in 97, which was the last time Labour won power back.
It's all about trends, and what is in the news and what is coming over the horizon. The last time the Tories had some sort of resurgence was when the vaccine was rolled out (which should have been expected). Loads of the anti-Starmer lot were crying about the polls back then, but it was a fake pump, and was never going to last, like I kept on saying. Post #54 on the following link is a good example, which ended up being at the Tory peak may I add https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...s-polling-for-labour.17231/page-3#post-384671
Tory's will probably get a bit of a dead cat bounce with a new leader, for a short time, but they're still a dead cat. There's nothing on the horizon to suggest that over the next 2-2.5 years we're going to be in any sort of boom, and loads of indications we're in for a rough 2.5 years, so I don't see the Tories polling any better than they are now, come the GE.
Providing Labour/ Starmer don't shoot themselves in the foot (which I don't think they will do), they should get more seats, and have more chance of a coalition if needed. There's more bad news coming the Tory's way, than there is Labours.
POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…
www.politico.eu
Andy_W
Well-known member
The Tories were already in power then though, they already had laid the foundations, and had the tailwind of coming out of a recession to help them.
Tories don't have that now, they've got a headwind to deal with for at least the next year with Inflaton/ Energy costs and possibly also slumps/ slow recovery in the market etc, but then the longer term problem with brexit.
Tories have been digging holes since the last couple of elections, but back in the early 2010's they had the benefit of starting at the bottom of a massive hole, which had a big ladder in it (inevitable coming out of recession). I don't see many big ladders for them now.
Not saying Labour caused the recession either, as they largely didn't, but loads of the public blamed it on them (largely due to the media).
SmallTown
Well-known member
I really hate this attitude. You know that saying silly things like that will give us more Tory tule yet you do it anyway. This petty labour infighting is so frustrating because it only enables the tories
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Yes, as that is exactly how it works if the ammendment has enough sponsors but I doubt there will be anymore tabled at this stage. Labour did not, for whatever reason fully agree on the wording of the Lib Dem ammendment and therefore didn't want to be held on it or simply want to add their own later. This bill will eventually go to the Commons where ammendments can be tabled again, then the Lords will have another go if it even gets that far given a change in PM.
Again, I have explained how the process works, linked a bill which shows all the stages demonstrating the large amount of amendments that can be tabled. You are not understanding the process and applying too much weight to your conclusions as a result based on one amendment at an early stage of it's assent.
I have responded to the initial assertion that Labour/Starmer don't support free school meals for all on UC due to abstaining on this ammendment, that conclusion cannot be made for the reasons I have set out.
I have also covered why abstaining is a common tactic, regardless of party and why it doesn't mean what you want it to mean, especially given the Tories have a large Commons majority and the most peers. The HOL discusses legislation, which is not a black and white yes/no or agree/disagree situation.
And please do not accuse me of not responding to what people are saying when you deliberately cherry picked three parts of my post to respond too.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
This would effectively reverse all of the Tory gains in the "red wall", could be even worse if Reform split their vote in more secure seats plus tactical voting.
ForssAwakens
Well-known member
Sorry I trying to delete the text to quote something and it took more that it did, so I got lazy and added negative into the 2 words it left in
Funky_Chicken
Well-known member
Why won't they? They're polling better now than at any point in the last 7 years (which is where the chart below stops)
What do you mean by win? A majority, or more seats than the Tories?
Labour might not get an overall majority (I still think they will), but either way they will get more seats than the Tories, and get the Tories out, which is a win to me (and should be to Labour voters). That would also be one hell of a recovery, more than most could have expected, so I'm not sure why you would highlight Starmer, seemingly as a problem.
Labour were 163 seats behind at the last GE, now they're predicted to have a lead of 63, which is a change of 226, there hasn't been a change like that since Blair won in 97, which was the last time Labour won power back.
It's all about trends, and what is in the news and what is coming over the horizon. The last time the Tories had some sort of resurgence was when the vaccine was rolled out (which should have been expected). Loads of the anti-Starmer lot were crying about the polls back then, but it was a fake pump, and was never going to last, like I kept on saying. Post #54 on the following link is a good example, which ended up being at the Tory peak may I add https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...s-polling-for-labour.17231/page-3#post-384671
Tory's will probably get a bit of a dead cat bounce with a new leader, for a short time, but they're still a dead cat. There's nothing on the horizon to suggest that over the next 2-2.5 years we're going to be in any sort of boom, and loads of indications we're in for a rough 2.5 years, so I don't see the Tories polling any better than they are now, come the GE.
Providing Labour/ Starmer don't shoot themselves in the foot (which I don't think they will do), they should get more seats, and have more chance of a coalition if needed. There's more bad news coming the Tory's way, than there is Labours.
POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…
View attachment 41429
View attachment 41430
View attachment 41431
Why won't they? They're polling better now than at any point in the last 7 years (which is where the chart below stops)
What do you mean by win? A majority, or more seats than the Tories?
Labour might not get an overall majority (I still think they will), but either way they will get more seats than the Tories, and get the Tories out, which is a win to me (and should be to Labour voters). That would also be one hell of a recovery, more than most could have expected, so I'm not sure why you would highlight Starmer, seemingly as a problem.
Labour were 163 seats behind at the last GE, now they're predicted to have a lead of 63, which is a change of 226, there hasn't been a change like that since Blair won in 97, which was the last time Labour won power back.
It's all about trends, and what is in the news and what is coming over the horizon. The last time the Tories had some sort of resurgence was when the vaccine was rolled out (which should have been expected). Loads of the anti-Starmer lot were crying about the polls back then, but it was a fake pump, and was never going to last, like I kept on saying. Post #54 on the following link is a good example, which ended up being at the Tory peak may I add https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...s-polling-for-labour.17231/page-3#post-384671
Tory's will probably get a bit of a dead cat bounce with a new leader, for a short time, but they're still a dead cat. There's nothing on the horizon to suggest that over the next 2-2.5 years we're going to be in any sort of boom, and loads of indications we're in for a rough 2.5 years, so I don't see the Tories polling any better than they are now, come the GE.
Providing Labour/ Starmer don't shoot themselves in the foot (which I don't think they will do), they should get more seats, and have more chance of a coalition if needed. There's more bad news coming the Tory's way, than there is Labours.
POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…
View attachment 41429
View attachment 41430
View attachment 41431
He won’t win for two reasonsWhy won't they? They're polling better now than at any point in the last 7 years (which is where the chart below stops)
What do you mean by win? A majority, or more seats than the Tories?
Labour might not get an overall majority (I still think they will), but either way they will get more seats than the Tories, and get the Tories out, which is a win to me (and should be to Labour voters). That would also be one hell of a recovery, more than most could have expected, so I'm not sure why you would highlight Starmer, seemingly as a problem.
Labour were 163 seats behind at the last GE, now they're predicted to have a lead of 63, which is a change of 226, there hasn't been a change like that since Blair won in 97, which was the last time Labour won power back.
It's all about trends, and what is in the news and what is coming over the horizon. The last time the Tories had some sort of resurgence was when the vaccine was rolled out (which should have been expected). Loads of the anti-Starmer lot were crying about the polls back then, but it was a fake pump, and was never going to last, like I kept on saying. Post #54 on the following link is a good example, which ended up being at the Tory peak may I add https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...s-polling-for-labour.17231/page-3#post-384671
Tory's will probably get a bit of a dead cat bounce with a new leader, for a short time, but they're still a dead cat. There's nothing on the horizon to suggest that over the next 2-2.5 years we're going to be in any sort of boom, and loads of indications we're in for a rough 2.5 years, so I don't see the Tories polling any better than they are now, come the GE.
Providing Labour/ Starmer don't shoot themselves in the foot (which I don't think they will do), they should get more seats, and have more chance of a coalition if needed. There's more bad news coming the Tory's way, than there is Labours.
POLITICO Poll of Polls — British polls, trends and election news for the United Kingdom and Scotland
All polls, trends and election news for the the United Kingdom, Scotland and London — Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Brexit Party, SNP, Greens, Scottish independence referendum and Scotland elect…
View attachment 41429
View attachment 41430
View attachment 41431
1. he lacks charisma
2. Most importantly the MSM won’t back a Labour government.
Doesn’t matter what polls say now, there’s two years till the next election. Plenty of time to build up the Tories reputation again
Andy_W
Well-known member
Charisma? What, like with Boris? Look where that got them. I think most are wising up that competence is more important, or just being relatively truthful, not a lying sleaze.
MSM (as in the papers) probably won't, but they maybe never will as they're nearly all owned by Torys, but thankfully there are other news sources around which are a bit more balanced. This isn't a Starmer specific problem though, it's Labours (and the other parties).
The papers have been supporting the Tories since Starmer came in, people don't seem to be believing them anymore. They've always been supporting the Tories though, it's not their support which is changing, it's public perception which is changing relative to what both Tory/ Labour governments are doing/ not doing.
The polls do matter, Labour have a big lead, and the Tory's are going to need some seriously good news to turn that around, and good news which overcomes their inevitable bad news (which every government gets).
Here's a little challenge for you Chris: go back through the thread and double check if this assertion...
...was actually made.
Apology accepted, no hard feelings. I think we ended up agreeing anyway?