Alvez_48
Well-known member
Oh I don't back the government at all.. maybe if they had locked down immediately stopped all travel and gone full new Zealand things might have been different.. maybe not but maybe.
Lockdown Deaths
- Thread starter Randy
- Start date
Oh I don't back the government at all.. maybe if they had locked down immediately stopped all travel and gone full new Zealand things might have been different.. maybe not but maybe.
Alvez_48
Well-known member
I was referring to new Zealand and Australia but nm .. also South Korea didn't lock down harsher than us at all. Point me to the countries schools closing .
SmallTown
Well-known member
No, good point. I thought Taiwan and Japan HAD locked down. My apologies.
JM14
Well-known member
Missed cancer diagnosis will take years in some cases to start impacting deaths, excess deaths 12 weeks into a lock down will not be cancer.
If we hadnt locked down the healthcare service would have been completely overwhelmed, as well as having to prioritise treatment for those most likely to survive (as seen in Italy), deaths from other treatable illnesses would have occurred too if hospitals were at full capacity.
JM14
Well-known member
Look at the peak, and look at where it is now. Is that not down to the country being in lockdown? If we hadnt gone into lockdown that would have likely continued where we were seeing over 1000 deaths each day. Yes some deaths will have been caused by this lockdown but that will be a tiny percentage compared to how many were saved
Alvez_48
Well-known member
No you're simply wrong.
The peak was before lockdown could have any impact and was already down..
You want to see the impact of lockdown? Look at the long tail..
The NHS was never overwhelmed thus flattening the curve did nothing but prolong the tail.
Meanwhile economy melting, people dying from other things than covid in droves, loads of us haven't seen our families for months and when we do have to feel guilty and terrible for not being able to fecking hug them.
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Randy
Well-known member
https://app.spectator.co.uk/2020/05/27/count-for-nothing/content.html
One point that stuck out for me from this article was the fact that,
A video-link consultation in the four weeks prior to death is now felt to be sufficient for death to be attributed to Covid-19. For deaths in care homes the situation is even more extraordinary. Care home providers, most of whom are not medically trained, may make a statement to the effect that a patient has died of Covid-19
Hmmm.
One point that stuck out for me from this article was the fact that,
A video-link consultation in the four weeks prior to death is now felt to be sufficient for death to be attributed to Covid-19. For deaths in care homes the situation is even more extraordinary. Care home providers, most of whom are not medically trained, may make a statement to the effect that a patient has died of Covid-19
Hmmm.
boromike85
Well-known member
My lease ended last week. If we were a one car household then we would need a car as soon as lockdown ended and I had to head back to work in the office so I can see why people would go and buy a car now. We have (had) 2 cars and the wife is on mat leave so it's not a problem for us only having one at the moment.
They have said multiple times over the last couple of months that proper comparisons will only be possible once it is over and the only reliable statistic will be age-adjusted mortality. There are lots of reasons why one country has more deaths than another. We know we have been rubbish at things like having enough ventilators (which was sorted before we needed them), Critical Care beds (ditto), PPE etc. Most of the things we have been terrible at haven't significantly contributed to the overall death rate.
The overall high figures are probably because we have more people coming in and out than most, high population density particularly in London with a reliance on public transport, we are quite good at keeping people alive in general so more people that are vulnerable to a new virus etc. And yes, when and how we implemented lockdown, and how we adhered to it, will have contributed. Until we are out the other side though we won't know whether our approach caused more deaths, countries with stricter lockdowns may have just delayed their deaths.
motownjunk
Well-known member
"The peak was before lockdown could have any impact and was already down. "
How can you say that ? The peak deaths hit the uk 2 to 4 weeks after lock down. What evidence do you have that the death rate wouldn't have kept rising without lockdown. You cannot say that the infection couldn't have increased enough to overwhelm the ICU departments.
How can you say that ? The peak deaths hit the uk 2 to 4 weeks after lock down. What evidence do you have that the death rate wouldn't have kept rising without lockdown. You cannot say that the infection couldn't have increased enough to overwhelm the ICU departments.
JM14
Well-known member
Lockdown started properly 23rd March, peak deaths were between 10/20th April, with symptoms starting roughly around a week after catching it and taking a few weeks to require hospitalisation then that adds up. After 20th April deaths slowly started reducing, what else can that be causing that if not the lockdown?
Yes the economy is melting but its fairly difficult to do much about that during the peak of a pandemic, will happen to every country at some point
Alvez_48
Well-known member
Lol the peak was 8th April just stop
JM14
Well-known member
look at the data, it wasnt
Even if it was the 8th that still shows that the lockdown worked though
newusername
Well-known member
16 days after lockdown started, plus that is only the deaths in hospital.
Billy Horner
Well-known member
The anti-lockdown brigade appear to be under the misapprehension that lockdown is the only tool in the box to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic and, therefore, feel the need to suggest that the virus isn’t all that dangerous and/or that we’ve all had it by now anyway. The fact of the matter is that those countries which have had to impose strict lockdowns (including UK) are the ones that responded too slowly to start with, mainly due to expecting it to be like a flu pandemic.
The point of lockdown, therefore, has been to get things back under control so that a more appropriate response can be put in place, namely a properly resourced test, track and isolate system. This is how the most successful countries responded from the outset, because they knew that with a SARS-like virus you need to suppress it at all costs, not just let it run through your population.
Incidentally, on the excess deaths debate, last week the ONS released an analysis of causes of death in April (peak month). By far the leading cause was Covid-19, but the second ranked was dementia, which had twice its standardised rate of deaths last month.
People with dementia often live in care homes. where we know there has been a problem with Covid-19, especially last month. I have great difficulty in believing that twice as many people as normal just happened to succumb to dementia in April, so would suggest that it’s most likely these are Covid-19 deaths that have been under-reported.
The point of lockdown, therefore, has been to get things back under control so that a more appropriate response can be put in place, namely a properly resourced test, track and isolate system. This is how the most successful countries responded from the outset, because they knew that with a SARS-like virus you need to suppress it at all costs, not just let it run through your population.
Incidentally, on the excess deaths debate, last week the ONS released an analysis of causes of death in April (peak month). By far the leading cause was Covid-19, but the second ranked was dementia, which had twice its standardised rate of deaths last month.
People with dementia often live in care homes. where we know there has been a problem with Covid-19, especially last month. I have great difficulty in believing that twice as many people as normal just happened to succumb to dementia in April, so would suggest that it’s most likely these are Covid-19 deaths that have been under-reported.
1finny
Well-known member
Corcaigh_the_Cat
Well-known member
They're 'Straight Outta Trumpton'
There's a blatantly obvious link between Covid19 and excess deaths. They're now looking to shift the blame on to the lockdown itself without any evidence to support it. We'll know in time the real totals and their causes once those worrying excessively about the economy have stopped spreading unfounded gossip.
The economy will be sorted in due course, and hopefully is reorganised to such an extent that the worries over too much personal debt, which is at the heart of a lot of the arguments, can be reduced.
There's a blatantly obvious link between Covid19 and excess deaths. They're now looking to shift the blame on to the lockdown itself without any evidence to support it. We'll know in time the real totals and their causes once those worrying excessively about the economy have stopped spreading unfounded gossip.
The economy will be sorted in due course, and hopefully is reorganised to such an extent that the worries over too much personal debt, which is at the heart of a lot of the arguments, can be reduced.
spanishman
Well-known member
I suggest you have a look at the euromomo weekly charts I am publishing here:
https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...o-data-plus-some-ons-uk-data.3292/#post-66274
Early days. However the initial trend is that England (and perhaps Scotland) have different trends in excess deaths. Compared with Spain and Italy.
I am not saying why this has happened. Just quoting the facts.
https://fmttmboro.com/index.php?thr...o-data-plus-some-ons-uk-data.3292/#post-66274
Early days. However the initial trend is that England (and perhaps Scotland) have different trends in excess deaths. Compared with Spain and Italy.
I am not saying why this has happened. Just quoting the facts.
Wait a minute - you said in a previous post that South Korea had no lockdown. After that was challenged you've changed it to they didn't lock down more harshly than us, apparently in part because you seem to think they didn't close their schools.
Their schools were closed. Here's a report from May 11 about this (there are many more reports showing South Korea's schools were closed):
South Korea Delays School Reopening as New Coronavirus Cases Rise
Randy
Well-known member
It didn't you are right.
Anti lockdown brigade Billy? Come on now, look at the bigger picture.
Lockdown measures will cost more lives than the virus will.
Hell I'll even save this page in my bookmarks and hoof this thread this time next year when true figures can be compared.
That is assuming we are allowed to compare anything next year as more of our freedoms seem to under attack every week.
JM14
Well-known member
I meant that it worked in terms of reducing the impact and flattening the curve. This is still a horrific death toll largely caused by the actions of this government IMO. Point was that the lockdown had worked in reducing the impact compared to a no lockdown scenario.