bear66
Well-known member
We'll never know whether any country did nothing as fear takes over! It was the worst case he was disputing as he believed it assumed the wrong number of ventilators. Having briefly looked through the paper, I don't recall that being a major parameter. Will take another look.I suspect we're going to be well over that, sadly. But that would, most likely, be unavoidable.
Boring bloke's main point re. the Imperial College model was that it is the worst case scenario ... the "do nothing" figure that is driving government policy (ie. lockdown). Where a more measured approach would be less damaging. As I understand him anyway.
PS
Just had a look. It assumed a peak surge capacity of 5000 ICU beds. In reality, Nightingale overflows would have increased that number of we had huge numbers of hospital admissions, but we still only have 10k ventilators. They then said if there were adequate treatment facilities for all patients, the figure would halve to 250,000.
In their conclusion, they say that suppression will work in the short term but no one knows how this will pan out longer term as nothing of this magnitude has been done before.
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