I think a lockdown is inevitable this winter, unfortunately. I think it will happen for 2 reasons. Firstly we are seeing 3 times the infection rate than at the same point last year, but half the number of deaths. If that correlation stacks up over time, by mid-winter we will have 100,000's of infections every day and hundreds of deaths every day. Bare in mind that with a three times the infections daily, we are still seeing half the deaths. Let that metric sink in a bit, particularly if you think the pandemic is over, not saying you do Unravel, btw.
The second reason is that I think the government want to trigger a general election next year and coming out of lockdown will give them a popularity bounce. In addition if the election is triggered during lockdown, with limited campaigning the tories will control the media narrative which will be the only narrative during a lockdown.
Oh the reason I think there will be a GE next year is that energy price rises and food shortages are not going to be teething problems of brexit, but a reality. Johnson will want to get an election in before the public wake up to the fact that this isnt teething problems that will eventually be ironed out.