I suspect at some point in the next 6 weeks there will be a gradual increase in hospital pressures due to the normal full capacity of every year and the creeping flu and covid demand.
At this point some panicked reintroduction of measures will be brought in which is too late. We will then start the lockdown process towards December.
I hope I'm wrong, but that extra capacity that covid patients take never existed previously, and NHS staff and capacity is stretched to its limit most years.
Routine services in Plymouth were suspended briefly a few weeks back as they were full in the hospital due to the extra covid demand, at present that pressure has eased but I expect within the next 6 weeks routine stuff will be paused over the winter months due to risk and lack of staff and bed capacity.