The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

This is a horrible conversation to have but I've noticed the BBC and guardian claim of the 8,000 excess deaths 6,230 are attributed to covid.

This is false.

It's of the 18,000 total deaths. (33% of the deaths for the week).

Which means there's a stark amount of people dying due to other things due to the media and government response.

It's worth noting that deaths attributed to heart attack and pneumonia have I believe fallen a significant (if someone could verify) as most of these deaths are noted as covid 19.

Regardless, let's really hope that the data shows an improvement going forward
 
Alvez_48 said:
This is a horrible conversation to have but I've noticed the BBC and guardian claim of the 8,000 excess deaths 6,230 are attributed to covid.

This is false.

It's of the 18,000 total deaths. (33% of the deaths for the week).

Which means there's a stark amount of people dying due to other things due to the media and government response.

It's worth noting that deaths attributed to heart attack and pneumonia have I believe fallen a significant (if someone could verify) as most of these deaths are noted as covid 19.

Regardless, let's really hope that the data shows an improvement going forward
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I was hopeful when I saw the figures that the excess deaths hadn't continued at the same rate as the week before, but then someone from the ONS explained they would be an underestimate as only 2/3 of registrars were open on Good Friday.
 
bear66 said:
I was hopeful when I saw the figures that the excess deaths hadn't continued at the same rate as the week before, but then someone from the ONS explained they would be an underestimate as only 2/3 of registrars were open on Good Friday.
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Sad times 😢
32,000 flu deaths too apparently.

2020 is swiftly becoming the worst year ever.
 
Alvez_48 said:
Sad times 😢
32,000 flu deaths too apparently.
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There was some good news on Newsnight last night. The figures each day are clearly not up to date; equally the ONS figures are not based on date of death but date registered. Newsnight showed a graph of actual hospital deaths by day which showed a peak on 9 April, 12 days ago. Also, they said London hospital deaths peaked before the lockdown as people were already social distancing.
 
Alvez_48 said:
This is a horrible conversation to have but I've noticed the BBC and guardian claim of the 8,000 excess deaths 6,230 are attributed to covid.

This is false.

It's of the 18,000 total deaths. (33% of the deaths for the week).
Click to expand...

It’s statistically reasonable to say both/either actually. You are correct in saying that Covid-19 accounted for 33% of all deaths registered in week 15.

However, as we are examining excess deaths compared with the average and Covid-19 is a new cause of death, it’s also reasonable to examine the extent to which Covid-19 can explain excess deaths. In that regard, it accounts for 6,213 (78%) of excess deaths, meaning that 1,783 (22%) were caused by something else (or Covid-19 was under-reported).


Alvez_48 said:
It's worth noting that deaths attributed to heart attack and pneumonia have I believe fallen a significant (if someone could verify) as most of these deaths are noted as covid 19
Click to expand...

We don’t know that at all. The ONS won’t publish comprehensive cause of death data for 2020 until the middle of next year, so we simply don’t know about heart disease, Alzheimer’s or other leading causes of death.

They have provided some provisional data in this week’s death registration data regarding Influenza and Pneumonia (more accurately influenza or pneumonia) as a comparison with Covid-19 data, due to them being other respiratory causes of death.

It may be that many early cases of Covid-19 were incorrectly attributed to pneumonia, but we’ll never know. There is also anecdotal evidence (so I can’t testify to its extent) that some GPs have been putting pneumonia on death certificates rather than Covid-19, in order to avoid time consuming enquires from coroners.
 
As of 9am 21 April, 535,342 tests have concluded, with 18,206 tests carried out on 20 April.

397,670 people have been tested, of whom 129,044 have tested positive.

As of 5pm on 20 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 17,337 have died.

3.2% rise in new positive cases.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 4,301 new infections in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 4,676
• 4-day average decreases by 6.0%, down from 0.3% increase yesterday (and following four consecutive days of growth)
• 828 new deaths reported in 24-hour period, up from 449 yesterday
• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 0.7%, following 12.9% decrease yesterday (and third consecutive day of decline)
• We have tracked further above Italy on a days since 20th death basis. We have followed broadly the same trajectory for the past 37 days and have been tracking above Italy for the past 20 days.
• We are now approximately 12.5 days behind Italy’s numbers (from 13 days behind yesterday)
 
Ok. So using the figures tweeted by DHSC, my calculations say there were 828 deaths by 5pm yesterday. However, the DHSC tweet says there were 823. Matt Hancock has just announced 852 deaths at the press conference. I have no idea which figure is correct.
 
Billy Horner said:
Ok. So using the figures tweeted by DHSC, my calculations say there were 828 deaths by 5pm yesterday. However, the DHSC tweet says there were 823. Matt Hancock has just announced 852 deaths at the press conference. I have no idea which figure is correct.
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Aren't Scotland, NI and Wales using a different timescale to England (which uses 5pm the previous day)?
 
bear66 said:
Aren't Scotland, NI and Wales using a different timescale to England (which uses 5pm the previous day)?
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Yes, which is why you can't simply add the four nations' totals together. However, the DHSC figures are supposed to take account of that and provide a standardised total (i.e. by 5pm the previous day).
 
Alvez_48 said:
This is a horrible conversation to have but I've noticed the BBC and guardian claim of the 8,000 excess deaths 6,230 are attributed to covid.

This is false.

It's of the 18,000 total deaths. (33% of the deaths for the week).

Which means there's a stark amount of people dying due to other things due to the media and government response.

It's worth noting that deaths attributed to heart attack and pneumonia have I believe fallen a significant (if someone could verify) as most of these deaths are noted as covid 19.

Regardless, let's really hope that the data shows an improvement going forward
Click to expand...
Billy Horner said:
Yes, which is why you can't simply add the four nations' totals together. However, the DHSC figures are supposed to take account of that and provide a standardised total (i.e. by 5pm the previous day).
Click to expand...
So why don't we just focus on the deaths in England then?

Scotland has its own TV briefings.
Wales has its own TV briefings.
Northern Ireland has its one TV briefings.

All of the above all have their own timescales etc.
 
Nobby_Barnes said:
Another 800+ deaths lads...

Where is this peak ?
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We have probably already peaked. The 4-day average for new deaths is 239 lower today than it was 10 days ago.

The point is, though, that peaking and the crisis being over are two separate things. The evidence from Italy and Spain is that the numbers are higher for longer on the way down than they were on the way up.
 
Billy Horner said:
We have probably already peaked. The 4-day average for new deaths is 239 lower today than it was 10 days ago.

The point is, though, that peaking and the crisis being over are two separate things. The evidence from Italy and Spain is that the numbers are higher for longer on the way down than they were on the way up.
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I think you would expect a long tail on the way down, it obviously will take a fair bit of time for the virus to spread out but once it has spread it will take a long time to retreat.
 
HolgateCorner said:
I think you would expect a long tail on the way down, it obviously will take a fair bit of time for the virus to spread out but once it has spread it will take a long time to retreat.
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True. Plus you have a lot of people still in hospital ICU facilities (although the government has stopped telling us how many for some reason).
 
My Spanish stats man says imagine a side view of an elephant. With the trunk down. So very quick on the way up. Then slowly going down from the peak for a period of time. Then a drop off reasonably quickly at the end.
 
Billy Horner said:
Today's headline analysis:

• 4-day average for new deaths decreases by 0.7%, following 12.9% decrease yesterday (and third consecutive day of decline)
Click to expand...

Despite the bump in hospital deaths today, the 4 day average of 690 is the lowest it has been since 6th April, two weeks ago.

I keep feeling optimistic & then look back & we went into lockdown with the 4 day average at 48. Long way to go before hospital deaths drop below that again.
 
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