Are the Government massaging the death rate.

RandySavage said:
That's what I'm concerned about. Is the media now going to be reporting every death at a care home and a personal home as a covid-19 death even though before this virus kicked off people still died in settings outside of a hospital?
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I can’t see how the media would be able to do that.

The only data that will be available will be the ONS weekly publication on registered deaths which included Covid-19 on the death certificate. All of those deaths would have gone though the process as described above.
 
RandySavage said:
That's what I'm concerned about. Is the media now going to be reporting every death at a care home and a personal home as a covid-19 death even though before this virus kicked off people still died in settings outside of a hospital?
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The opposite. A lot of covid-19 deaths are not being reported at all. As reported on C4 news tonight.
 
17 further deaths announced by South Tees NHS Trust, taking total to 100.

Two further deaths announced by North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust, taking total to 33.

South Tees NHS Trust are now 3rd highest (from joint 5th yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region (out of 25 NHS Trusts) and the joint 36th highest (from joint 45th yesterday) in the country (out of 164 NHS Trusts in England).

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Trust are 17th (same as yesterday) in terms of number of deaths in the North East & Yorkshire region and the joint 108th (from joint 109th yesterday) in the country.
 
Ref under reporting - Just read there are 410,000 residents in care homes plus I forgot hospices. Its not inconceivable for deaths to running at 0.5% of total residents from the Virus that would be around 2,100 so far that are not in the reported figures.

The Government has just said in the last 7 days recorded deaths are 6000 higher than they should be.

Over 3 weeks, that could 18000 deaths? and say with another 3 weeks to go - 36000 deaths in total.

I guess its only natural for the Government to be conservative in their estimates opposed to realistic to try and be less alarmist.

It does make me angry if the stories are true that care homes are not getting the PPE they need. I am sure the care homes the relatives of senior MPs etc are resident in are better looked after that say the one in Stanley where 13 residents have died.
 
Redwurzel said:
Ref under reporting - Just read there are 410,000 residents in care homes plus I forgot hospices. Its not inconceivable for deaths to running at 0.5% of total residents from the Virus that would be around 2,100 so far that are not in the reported figures.

The Government has just said in the last 7 days recorded deaths are 6000 higher than they should be.

Over 3 weeks, that could 18000 deaths? and say with another 3 weeks to go - 36000 deaths in total.

I guess its only natural for the Government to be conservative in their estimates opposed to realistic to try and be less alarmist.

It does make me angry if the stories are true that care homes are not getting the PPE they need. I am sure the care homes the relatives of senior MPs etc are resident in are better looked after that say the one in Stanley where 13 residents have died.
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It sounds like we might hear something tomorrow about care homes and community (?). There are 430000 in care homes and 540000 receiving 1,000,000 home care visits a day. I hope they come up with something that will protect both residents and workers.

Listening to the answers to the 'what do you think could have been done better' answers today, I have little confidence that these 'experts' will do anything to respond to such demanding times.

A BBC stats person looked at the ONS figures and, after the covid-19 figures were subtracted from the extra 6000 deaths, that left 2500 unexplained deaths. I would be doing everything to find out who these 2500 people were and what happened to them. If they're all covid-19 or presumed Covid-19 deaths but not registered as such, I'd want to know why.

Care homes have been talking about normal GP visits to care homes vastly reduced. With no medical presence, we're fighting this virus in the dark.
 
Redwurzel said:
It does make me angry if the stories are true that care homes are not getting the PPE they need. I am sure the care homes the relatives of senior MPs etc are resident in are better looked after that say the one in Stanley where 13 residents have died.
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Last night this story was reported on ITV Early Evening News just after the reporter had commented on the lack of PPE in care homes. On the local news straight after they also reported this story, but added a statement from the care home owners saying something along the lines of "They wanted to reassure families that they had enough equipment for all staff."

I'm not denying places are still short of equipment as I don't think there will be enough supply to cater for the huge volume in demand, at least not until we've peaked and the infection rate trajectory drops considerably lower. Even with PPE the virus can still be passed on
 
RandySavage said:
Is this anything to look into?
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Yup. We won't actually know the death toll until we get the year end values. Right now people who die of almost anything will be classed as Covid-19 if the disease is present in the area. Using the hospital death standard is the only way to have accurate comparisons with other countries.

Long term care homes are a factory for death everywhere in the world. What is needed is the new US based Abbott Laboratories antigen test (they're also in the UK I believe). The test gives a result in 15 minutes or less (if you're positive for Covid-19 it takes 5 minutes). This means staff could be tested prior to entry to a care home.

In fact this test or others like it could be the answer to opening up the economy. If employers can test employees prior to entry to a building, you could work as before knowing the chance of infection is very low. Same is true for aviation. Testing people on entry to the airport could mean worry free flying.
 
br14 said:
Yup. We won't actually know the death toll until we get the year end values. Right now people who die of almost anything will be classed as Covid-19 if the disease is present in the area. Using the hospital death standard is the only way to have accurate comparisons with other countries.

Long term care homes are a factory for death everywhere in the world. What is needed is the new US based Abbott Laboratories antigen test (they're also in the UK I believe). The test gives a result in 15 minutes or less (if you're positive for Covid-19 it takes 5 minutes). This means staff could be tested prior to entry to a care home.

In fact this test or others like it could be the answer to opening up the economy. If employers can test employees prior to entry to a building, you could work as before knowing the chance of infection is very low. Same is true for aviation. Testing people on entry to the airport could mean worry free flying.
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I wonder if the antigen test will be mentioned in tomorrow's briefing as they said social care would be the focus of it? Promising news if true. I personally will feel a lot better about my missus going to work in an assisted living care home knowing she could possibly be tested before every shift.
 
br14 said:
Yup. We won't actually know the death toll until we get the year end values. Right now people who die of almost anything will be classed as Covid-19 if the disease is present in the area. Using the hospital death standard is the only way to have accurate comparisons with other countries.

Long term care homes are a factory for death everywhere in the world. What is needed is the new US based Abbott Laboratories antigen test (they're also in the UK I believe). The test gives a result in 15 minutes or less (if you're positive for Covid-19 it takes 5 minutes). This means staff could be tested prior to entry to a care home.

In fact this test or others like it could be the answer to opening up the economy. If employers can test employees prior to entry to a building, you could work as before knowing the chance of infection is very low. Same is true for aviation. Testing people on entry to the airport could mean worry free flying.
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Except they're not being classed as covid-19 deaths, hence the 2500 discrepancy in one week, so don't make nonsense up. I can't understand why anyone would do that. The week saw the highest number of deaths in any week in any year since ONS records began in 2005. It's a disgrace how care homes and the community are being treated in this national disaster. Saying they're a factory of death is disgusting.
 
bear66 said:
Except they're not being classed as covid-19 deaths, hence the 2500 discrepancy in one week, so don't make nonsense up. I can't understand why anyone would do that. The week saw the highest number of deaths in any week in any year since ONS records began in 2005. It's a disgrace how care homes and the community are being treated in this national disaster. Saying they're a factory of death is disgusting.
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I couldn't agree more Bear.
 
br14 said:
Right now people who die of almost anything will be classed as Covid-19 if the disease is present in the area.
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I don't know where you're getting this from. The idea that the mere presence of CoVid-19 "in the area" means the death will be classified as CoVid-19 is without any foundation, as far as I'm aware.
 
I can see why the government report only the confirmed covid-19 figures. The others would be supposition. However any death in a care home that is confirmed as covid-19 should be included. The line about other countries not including deaths outside of hospitals sounds very much like "massaging the death figures" - see what I did there?

I get that the figures from distributed facilities would be behind the curve, but we should still be reporting these and I don't believe we are, at least not accurately.

There surely has to be an accounting when this is all over, please.
 
At least the government is now going to get all care home people tested of they have symptoms. Until now, they've only carried out 5 tests in a care home. If they turn out to be negative, hard luck for future people.

GPs have stopped going into care homes so there is no one to ask what is going on.

I was shocked to hear that one SW Trust only had 24 allocated tests for its staff, so people are waiting for the call. Yet, for two days, we have been at least 4000 tests down on our capacity. Why? Our testing strategy and implementation is a disaster.
 
bear66 said:
The report from the Independent on the ONS figures:
Link
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That report does not say that any death with CoVid-19 "in the area" is counted as a CoVid death. It says these are the numbers that:
include all mentions of Covid-19 on the death certificate, including suspected Covid-19
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That's quite, quite different to "deaths with CoVid-19 in the area."

Please note that my earlier post was in response to br14, not you.
 
Liamo said:
That report does not say that any death with CoVid-19 "in the area" is counted as a CoVid death. It says these are the numbers that:


That's quite, quite different to "deaths with CoVid-19 in the area."

Please note that my earlier post was in response to br14, not you.
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I was supporting your assertion.
 
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