Randy
Well-known member
Someone on here was asking for proof that suicides are on the increase.
This is just London.
This is just London.
You only need to look around us in Europe to see where we are going. This is no surprise unfortunately.
Full lockdown was what dramatically reduced the spread last time and it is the only thing which will do it this time.
It will arguably be too late, the impact on the healthcare system may well show us that.
The damage to the economy and individual livelihoods going forward is a very frightening thought but we will be left with no other option.
The King Canutes will gradually become quieter.
The problem with tier 3 is the scientists said it wouldn’t stop the spreadYep, I’ve no doubt a lockdown is incoming, or maybe tier 3 nationally?
The narrative of fear has been ramped up to the max in the mainstream media in the last couple of days which is possibly the governments attempt to ensure compliance by fear.
That tactic worked on me in April. It won't again.Yep, I’ve no doubt a lockdown is incoming, or maybe tier 3 nationally?
The narrative of fear has been ramped up to the max in the mainstream media in the last couple of days which is possibly the governments attempt to ensure compliance by fear.
It's a good point about the sensitivity assumption, but, if the sensitivity was 100% they would be finding a huge numbers of (false) positives that would make the findings far worse so I'd like to see the maths that comes up with 36,000 cases a day. It would have made sense to do a sensitivity / specifity adjustment to show the consequences of the assumption.It doesn’t make good reading.
Not sure how accurate it is though.
Smarter people than me have managed to pull it to bits in a short time frame.
Not saying it’s wrong but maybe it’s being a bit economical with the data it presents.
The full thread of tweets below looks at it and identifies some.....issues
File under tin hat nut job, if you like
It's a good point about the sensitivity assumption, but, if the sensitivity was 100% they would be finding a huge numbers of (false) positives that would make the findings far worse so I'd like to see the maths that comes up with 36,000 cases a day. It would have made sense to do a sensitivity / specifity adjustment to show the consequences of the assumption.
Lockdowns work? Exactly how? The entire world locked down and the virus still spread whilst it was.This Steve Brown twitter thread is for me what is wring with this whole debate. Can I explain in a few points:
We are back on the test results. AGAIN - Steve Brown (who even is he?) is doubting the accuracy again and he reels off a load of science sounding 'proof' that's designed to make us question what the REACT report concludes - very hard for laypeople (including myself) so make head nor tail of what he is saying and what he is even showing us. Ultimately what he is saying doesn't really matter for us because...
We can see that hospital admissions are going up
We can see that deaths are going up
Let's just look at this from a really basic point of view, and try and use logic:
Based on the rise in hospital admissions and deaths logic would suggest that Coronavirus is coming back.
When we look back at the last wave it was widely accepted that the harder your measures the quicker you stop cases increasing.
There is no alternative plan.
As cases are rising now just doing nothing would let them continue to rise and then they would fill the hospitals - we can't have that..... So you lock down.
Tiers 1, 2 & 3 aren't a lockdown, and the Gib's own advisors have said they aren't hard enough and won't work.
I don't like this Government or Johnson. The Tier system doesn't work. The only thing that has worked was a lockdown. Maybe that's all we can do. Yes, it's kicking the can down the road, but it's kicking it down the road until April when we hopefully will have a vaccine. This also gives the Government, as incompetent as they are, time to AGAIN try to sort track n trace and make some kind of alternative plan in case there is no vaccine.
What I can remember from right back in March was the Government scientists categorically saying that we need to lock down FAST and HARD to have the biggest impact. Then when we have driven down the R we use a track and trace system to keep it low. If we released too EARLY it would cause a 2ND WAVE which would be MORE DAMAGING TO BOTH THE ECONOMY AND LIVES. Boris released too early and fluffed the track n trace and if now persevering with half measures. Exactly the opposite of what was recommended.
We need to get this right a 2nd time around and arguing over how effective a PCR test is detracting from the real issue - the virus is out of control and we need to do *something* about it.
Lockdowns work? Exactly how? The entire world locked down and the virus still spread whilst it was.
Liken it to putting a lid on a boiling pan of water. It's going to blow the lid off of the pan eventually. Leave the pan lid off a little bit (current social distancing measures and masks) and the pan will eventually boil dry.
You have just lived through a period that showed how a lockdown worked.
We locked down, the virus reduced, we released measures, the virus came back.
Lockdowns work? Exactly how? The entire world locked down and the virus still spread whilst it was.
Liken it to putting a lid on a boiling pan of water. It's going to blow the lid off of the pan eventually. Leave the pan lid off a little bit (current social distancing measures and masks) and the pan will eventually boil dry.
The Germans had a **** hot track and trace system and look what's happened there.Lockdowns just buy you time. In that time you have to have put in an effective Track and Trace system. The Government failed miserably to use the time in the last lockdown to establish one and we are paying the consequences.
The Germans had a **** hot track and trace system and look what's happened there.
lockdowns slow transmission they don’t eradicate it. They can eventually but when it’s as rife as it is it’s pretty impossible.Lockdowns work? Exactly how? The entire world locked down and the virus still spread whilst it was.
Liken it to putting a lid on a boiling pan of water. It's going to blow the lid off of the pan eventually. Leave the pan lid off a little bit (current social distancing measures and masks) and the pan will eventually boil dry.
Very few countries locked down. Sweden had one of the highest 'lockdowns' in terms of social distancing, but even there 15% of people ignored social distancing guidelines.Lockdowns work? Exactly how? The entire world locked down and the virus still spread whilst it was.
Liken it to putting a lid on a boiling pan of water. It's going to blow the lid off of the pan eventually. Leave the pan lid off a little bit (current social distancing measures and masks) and the pan will eventually boil dry.
The Germans had a **** hot track and trace system and look what's happened there.