The 9am figures not disclosed yet?

Today's headline analysis:

• 1,406 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,715
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 6.4% to 1,323 per day, following 6.8% increase yesterday (and 9th increase in the past 10 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.8% higher than one week ago (from 19.6% higher yesterday) and 22.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 13.7% higher yesterday and 23.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 2 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 1 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 2.9% to 10 per day, following 6.7% decrease yesterday (and 3rd consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 6.3% higher than one week ago (from 11.1% higher yesterday) and 6.8% lower than two weeks ago (from 20.5% lower yesterday and 27.3% lower 7 days ago)
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,295 new cases reported in 24-hour period, down from yesterday's 1,406
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 1.2% to 1,339 per day, following 6.3% increase yesterday (and 10th increase in the past 11 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.7% higher than one week ago (from 24.8% higher yesterday) and 25.0% higher than two weeks ago (from 22.5% higher yesterday and 15.6% higher 7 days ago)
• 3 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 2 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 19.1% to 8 per day, following 2.9% decrease yesterday (and 4th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 19.1% lower than one week ago (from 6.3% higher yesterday) and 23.6% lower than two weeks ago (from 6.8% lower yesterday and 18.1% lower 7 days ago)
 
Deaths week of 21st August:-

9631

5 year average:-

9157

Given that the hospital admission rate for covid is still incredibly low alongside deaths.... Are we now beginning to really see the impact of people not having access to care?
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,508 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,295
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 4.9% to 1,404 per day, following 1.2% increase yesterday (and 11th increase in the past 12 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 26.9% higher than one week ago (from 24.7% higher yesterday) and 34.7% higher than two weeks ago (from 25.0% higher yesterday and 17.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 10 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 3 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test decreases by 10.9% to 7 per day, following 19.1% decrease yesterday (and 5th consecutive daily decrease)
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 10.9% lower than one week ago (from 19.1% lower yesterday) and 27.9% lower than two weeks ago (from 23.6% lower yesterday and 23.6% lower 7 days ago)
 
I notice that the increase in cases is now doubling every 3.5 weeks, if that trend continues we are back at square one in fairly quick order. Let's hope that hospitalizations and deaths remain low.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,735 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,508
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 2.2% to 1,435 per day, following 4.9% increase yesterday (and 12th increase in the past 13 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 24.2% higher than one week ago (from 26.9% higher yesterday) and 36.6% higher than two weeks ago (from 34.7% higher yesterday and 19.1% higher 7 days ago)
• 13 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, up from 10 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 2.0% to 7 per day, following 10.9% decrease yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 32.4% lower than one week ago (from 27.9% lower yesterday) and 10.7% lower than two weeks ago (from 27.9% lower yesterday and 16.9% lower 7 days ago)
 
Some observations:

As we all know, daily new cases have been on the increase since 8th July. Part of this increase can be explained by increased testing.

However, on 8th July, the 7-day average for tests processed was 134,699. Today, that average stands at 190,380 tests per day, which is an increase of 41%.

The respective figures for the 7-day average in new cases are 546 per day on 8th July and 1,435 per day now. That is an increase of 163%, so the increase in tests processed only explains around a quarter of the increase in cases.

On a similar note, the estimated average positive test rate (we don't know the actual rate as the government doesn't publish figures on the number of people tested) on 8th July was 0.405%. The average positive rate today is 0.738%, which is an 82% increase.

If we now look at hospital admissions, these had been steadily falling since the peak in April, despite the recent increases in new cases, to a low of 93 per day as at 25th August. However, since that date, the numbers have begun to increase again, to reach an average of 111 per day on 1st September (this is the last date available and, even then, the data does not include Scotland, so the actual figure is likely to be slightly higher). This is an increase of 19.4% in a week.

Of course, it is extremely important to say that all of these numbers are a fraction of what they were during April, and the increases we are seeing are a long way off exponential growth. It is also the case that the average number of daily deaths has continued to decrease to a point that, now being in single figures, it is difficult to accurately judge trends on a day-to-day basis.

However, we know that an increase in new cases will tend to lead to an increase in hospital admissions and, further down the line, by an increase in deaths. We have now seen one of those factors for a number of weeks, with emerging evidence for the second over the past week. Time will tell if we begin to see the third.
 
Bear, as lazy as I am, with positive cases steadily increasing, are the number of tests increasing still?
 
Laughing said:
Bear, as lazy as I am, with positive cases steadily increasing, are the number of tests increasing still?
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The highest number of tests was 27 August and has been lower since. Today was the lowest for nearly two weeks. There was a general increase over August but not in the same proportion of positive tests. I guess they are more focused now in the various hotspots.

The England hospital admissions today were the highest since 27 July.
 
Today's headline analysis:

• 1,940 new cases reported in 24-hour period, up from yesterday's 1,735
• 7-day average for new cases increases by 6.6% to 1,530 per day, following 2.2% increase yesterday (and 13th increase in the past 14 days)
• 7-day average for new cases is 28.5% higher than one week ago (from 24.2% higher yesterday) and 54.1% higher than two weeks ago (from 36.6% higher yesterday and 13.2% higher 7 days ago)
• 10 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test reported in 24-hour period, down from 13 yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test increases by 2.0% to 7 per day, following 2.0% increase yesterday
• 7-day average for new deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 37.0% lower than one week ago (from 32.4% lower yesterday) and 8.5% higher than two weeks ago (from 10.7% lower yesterday and 8.0% lower 7 days ago)
 
Laughing said:
I notice that the increase in cases is now doubling every 3.5 weeks, if that trend continues we are back at square one in fairly quick order. Let's hope that hospitalizations and deaths remain low.
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Depends, testing is much more wide spread. If we were doing this level of testing in April we may have been saying 40k positive tests a day
 
GazC_MFC said:
Depends, testing is much more wide spread. If we were doing this level of testing in April we may have been saying 40k positive tests a day
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Gaz you are right, we cannot directly compare. We cannot even compare as a ratio as in April we were testing only symptomatic people, so the ration of positive tests would be higher than today. However, for 2 weeks now there has been daily increases in the number of positive tests that outstrip the increased testing. This clearly shows a trend upwards. My concern is that the disease hasn't mutated and we are heading back into a place where people start dying again. We want to avoid another lockdown and the hardship that will bring. To do that we have to either :

a) get better at preventative measure, social distancing and enforcement. Track and trace and quarantine. In Canada last week a film crew arrived from the USA and they were locked in their hotel room the door key taken from them and they will remain there for 14 days
b) Be certain our treatment has improved to the point where we can be sure the vast majority of elderly people will recover
c) Have a vaccine

At the minute a and c are non-starters and I am not sure about b.
 
Laughing said:
Gaz you are right, we cannot directly compare. We cannot even compare as a ratio as in April we were testing only symptomatic people, so the ration of positive tests would be higher than today. However, for 2 weeks now there has been daily increases in the number of positive tests that outstrip the increased testing. This clearly shows a trend upwards. My concern is that the disease hasn't mutated and we are heading back into a place where people start dying again. We want to avoid another lockdown and the hardship that will bring. To do that we have to either :

a) get better at preventative measure, social distancing and enforcement. Track and trace and quarantine. In Canada last week a film crew arrived from the USA and they were locked in their hotel room the door key taken from them and they will remain there for 14 days
b) Be certain our treatment has improved to the point where we can be sure the vast majority of elderly people will recover
c) Have a vaccine

At the minute a and c are non-starters and I am not sure about b.
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I agree we need an effective track trace and isolate system otherwise another lockdown is inevitable

the tories have allowed their mates to get rich off lockdown rather than employing cost effective best for the job companies
 
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