He's looking in South Manchester.
In 2016, he could have bought a 3 bed house in Northenden or wherever for roughly £200k, with £160k of mortgage. He's since paid roughly £35k in rent and saved an extra £20k. If he'd bought, rather than dithered, he'd be sat in a house worth roughly an extra £30k, have paid off £35k of equity and still have saved his £20k.
So even if house prices drop to their 2016 level, he's still out of pocket for all the rent he's paid while some landlord has done b***r all and gotten rich off his hard work. And he's had to deal with letting agents and all the other **** that comes with renting.
I can't see the future, but I do know that given how much of this country's economy is tied up in house prices, the gov will do absolutely everything it can to stop them falling significantly.
I don't think many would have paid off 35k equity in 4 years, not on a 160k mortgage, it's probably more like 15k, then add on the stamp duty, solicitors fees, building insurance and it's likely closer to 10k in real terms. Then in those 4 years, he may have outgrown his house (every first-time buyer I know has got itchy feet after 3-5 years). So then you have more solicitors fees, stamp duty, estate agents fees. Could even be down to 5k after those!
That "worth" extra 30k only beats inflation by 8k, so it's only really an 8k gain in relative terms. So really he's 10k+8k up (18k) at best, or more likely 5k+8k up (13k) at worst, but then if it drops only 10% (and pretty much everyone expects a drop) then he's down 2k-7k.
If he had invested 40k in S&P 500 in 2016, he would have over 80k now, if he had topped that up with his other 20k then it would be worth more like 110k.
That's over half his house paid this year in cash, buying when the market is likely in a dip.
It's actually better If you never buy, and just invest and let the money compound up, I think 75k at 10% each year ends up 1.5m after 30 years. I know a lot of people with 75k house deposit or a 300k house, but don't know many with a 500k house and 1m in the bank.
Plus renting provides much, much more freedom and fewer liabilities.
Rent is just a cost, it's not a loss, and it's not a loss if it's enabling you to invest in things which make better returns and provide more freedom than property, or are awaiting a timed entry into the market. The trick is making the best use of the capital you have saved (this is his error if anything). If there was no mortgage interest (now or in the future) and house prices were going up 5% every year, there was a good economic outlook, a baby boom and net migration into the UK then I would understand it, but we don't have much or any of that. It's not 1990 or 2000, yet everyone still acts like it is, it's crazy. I've got a few properties and this is why I'm selling up, it's easier to make more money elsewhere at less risk.
The government will do all they can, but they can't fight the world, even less so out of the EU. We have a falling birth rate, an economy that's likely to get a beating, a big chunk of post furlough unemployment, probably a net migration away from the UK, and a boatload of boomers heading for care homes (with nobody to fill the houses they leave).