LessoftheLip
Well-known member
I think it'll be the 'stay at homes' who impact the outcome more. Massively worrying for the Tories.
YouGov Poll - 33 Point lead!
- Thread starter Chris_Boro
- Start date
Andy_W
Well-known member
Don't quite think it's that insane, everyone knows the old and rich folk who benefitted most from the house price boom are the only thing which the Tories can sort of rely on, and basically they're dying.
It's also not like they're going to convince the generation which can't get on the ladder to vote for them.
Interesting to actually see it in voter numbers though, pretty much 1% per year, and I would expect that to continue for about a decade or two unless there are some monumentally beneficial changes to the UK economy, which are then allowed to filter over into all walks of like.
Tories have relied on the old vote and pandered to it for far too long, and the expiry date was always going to come.
Chris_Boro
Well-known member
Most pollsters account for them in their methodology, except Deltalol.
"Don't knows" generally fall back to their historical voting pattern, the caveat for the next GE is many people lent their vote to the Tories for Brexit, which is still a big part in most pollsters methodology.
The main issue for the Tories with "Don't knows" is how many of them that would vote Tory, turn into "did not vote".
Andy_W
Well-known member
This could possibly be the end for the Tories, we could be very much at the tipping point, and it's a one way street unless something changes for those who are young and skint. There's been far to many people who are nowhere near rich enough to be a Tory, voting Tory, it's going to change when reality bites, and there are still a lot of voters who it's going to bite for, including those in reform etc.
For example, even with things like pensions, which older folk or those getting old traditionally vote to protect. I'm not convinced people in their early 40's (like myself) and maybe even 50's will even get a state pension, I can's see how it's going to be affordable. The triangle of workers to pensioners is flipping the wrong way, and will continue to do so because of the very low birth rate. If you make life **** for young folk, they stop having kids, and stop having kids early. We're going to be absolutely desperate for people of young working age in 10,20 years etc, could say we're already desperate now.
It's funny mind, as the older people are, the more they're generally likely to vote tory or reform etc, and be against immigration, but I wonder if they will be saying that when there's not enough people to pay tax to fund their pension? We've got a lot of brexiters in their 40's and 50's etc who are probably unaware of the predicament they're in, especially if they don't own a house big enough to fund the retirement they want. It would be even worse if more of the NHS was sold off and we went to an insurance based model. People will gradually wake up to this, but those in their 60's will probably get away with it.
The only other thing which will save this (without more young people) is taxing accumulated wealth, rather than earnings, and we know the Tories ain't ever going to do that. Old people who are skint and have nothing will still get support, but anyone with cash will be expected to fund themselves and cash in their house till it runs out, and as time goes on that time till it runs out will decrease for the average person. So we will either need immigration to fund pensions, or taxing wealth, neither of which would go down well with older folk/ Tories, it's not like the pension fund could go up either, as the younger folk would never vote for it if they're getting zero back in return or being asked to work will they're 75 or whatever.
I can see things changing where younger folk will see the big chunk going out of the uk tax budget to pensions, to people who already have wealth and own homes etc, and wonder why they're funding that, if they can't even get a house themselves. The more time goes on there will be more and more people of more ages in the same position, thinking the same thing. Peoples pension will effectively have to be replaced by whatever major assets they can build up, probably the house, but if they can't get on the ladder then they're not going to have a house, or will be working till they're 80 to pay it off, it's not possible. Something needs to change big time, as there's a massive **** storm coming, it's already been ordered.
Money needs to move from those that have it, to those who don't, and quickly, if they do it in a fair way then the rich might still be able to stay relatively rich, but if they don't then I can see it being taken, it will have to be. A massive house price crash might work too, but probably not enough.
All of this is just going to lead to votes going away from the rich (and to the left) especially as more and more people realise they're not as rich as think they are.
For example, even with things like pensions, which older folk or those getting old traditionally vote to protect. I'm not convinced people in their early 40's (like myself) and maybe even 50's will even get a state pension, I can's see how it's going to be affordable. The triangle of workers to pensioners is flipping the wrong way, and will continue to do so because of the very low birth rate. If you make life **** for young folk, they stop having kids, and stop having kids early. We're going to be absolutely desperate for people of young working age in 10,20 years etc, could say we're already desperate now.
It's funny mind, as the older people are, the more they're generally likely to vote tory or reform etc, and be against immigration, but I wonder if they will be saying that when there's not enough people to pay tax to fund their pension? We've got a lot of brexiters in their 40's and 50's etc who are probably unaware of the predicament they're in, especially if they don't own a house big enough to fund the retirement they want. It would be even worse if more of the NHS was sold off and we went to an insurance based model. People will gradually wake up to this, but those in their 60's will probably get away with it.
The only other thing which will save this (without more young people) is taxing accumulated wealth, rather than earnings, and we know the Tories ain't ever going to do that. Old people who are skint and have nothing will still get support, but anyone with cash will be expected to fund themselves and cash in their house till it runs out, and as time goes on that time till it runs out will decrease for the average person. So we will either need immigration to fund pensions, or taxing wealth, neither of which would go down well with older folk/ Tories, it's not like the pension fund could go up either, as the younger folk would never vote for it if they're getting zero back in return or being asked to work will they're 75 or whatever.
I can see things changing where younger folk will see the big chunk going out of the uk tax budget to pensions, to people who already have wealth and own homes etc, and wonder why they're funding that, if they can't even get a house themselves. The more time goes on there will be more and more people of more ages in the same position, thinking the same thing. Peoples pension will effectively have to be replaced by whatever major assets they can build up, probably the house, but if they can't get on the ladder then they're not going to have a house, or will be working till they're 80 to pay it off, it's not possible. Something needs to change big time, as there's a massive **** storm coming, it's already been ordered.
Money needs to move from those that have it, to those who don't, and quickly, if they do it in a fair way then the rich might still be able to stay relatively rich, but if they don't then I can see it being taken, it will have to be. A massive house price crash might work too, but probably not enough.
All of this is just going to lead to votes going away from the rich (and to the left) especially as more and more people realise they're not as rich as think they are.
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Cardiffdaffs
Well-known member
I didnt say it was insane. Tweet the guy who did although I suspect he was referring to the fact that Sunak wont go to the polls until October rather than the fact that Tory voters are disappearing. As an aside the home owners may be dying off but its not as simple as that and many of these home owners are passing them on to their kids.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Yeah, I know you weren't, I was more replying to the post you quoted, not your text, as there was no text
I' would have a more of a negative view on that, but we will see how much of the wealth gets passed on, and how much gets spent on early retirement, holidays, boats and cars etc. I can't see anywhere near enough filtering down, not to the point where gifted deposits have increased in parity to make the house as affordable as they were. I expect most will spend most of the value of the house price gains, and most of those gains will have came after a time when their house was already paid off. Basically I can see the gains in house prices being spent, as it's seen as deserved, but the young folk will end up having to make that difference back up, if they can, and I don't think they will be able to on the whole.
They realise the election is almost certainly lost, but to what extent the numbers will be does have them really worried. The backbenchers are getting seriously twitchy.
Their private polling results must make very scary reading.
SmallTown
Well-known member
The scary thing is what they will do before the GE? their only hope of clinging to power is to delay the GE as much as possible. I believe this is why they are stoking up the racial tension. Race riots would be a great excuse to delay.
festa5
Well-known member
They're desperate now. Would anyone be shocked if they tried to remove Sunak before an October GE? I wouldn't, particularly if the council elections go the same way as everything else has. They'll in scraping around for a miracle territory now.
They're out of ideas and out of time.
It's frankly immoral for them to continue hanging on like this. They cant govern effectively because they don't know how much longer they have. It's a distraction and we need some leadership. If the country still wants a tory government let's go to the polls and find out.
This lingering death is doing no-one any favours. I hope they end up getting even more severely punished for it the selfish *****.
They're out of ideas and out of time.
It's frankly immoral for them to continue hanging on like this. They cant govern effectively because they don't know how much longer they have. It's a distraction and we need some leadership. If the country still wants a tory government let's go to the polls and find out.
This lingering death is doing no-one any favours. I hope they end up getting even more severely punished for it the selfish *****.
Laughing
Well-known member
Not sure they can get rid of sunak. Wouldn't he call a ge? He doesn't need party support to do that. So ousting him comes with some risk.
festa5
Well-known member
I did say "tried"
Yeah agree, they can't force his hand but he is that spineless they might be able to convince him to resign, particularly if the local elections are a car crash for him.
For him personally he's probably better off calling it before then for that reason.
Andy_W
Well-known member
It's mad, they just seem to keep acting further right, and they somehow think they're going to get some secret voters from that, which don't exist (in fact the number shrinks by the day). Of course there is still Reform to the right of them, but their voters might as well be wearing pointy white hats with holes cut out. They can't even chase the reform vote as every one they gain, they lose two from the "less right" side of the party.
The thing is I don't even think it's Sunak, he's just caught in the middle between people who are nuts, and people who are extremely nuts.
One of the most annoying things about them at the minute is they just will not answer questions or admit when they're wrong.
They sacked Lee Anderson as he's Islamophobic/ Racist, and said some bad stuff about Khan, which they were never going to get out of doing, probably not because they wanted to. But then LBC quizzed an MP about it (Illegal Migration minister Michael Tomlison), asking him if they sacked him because he was Islamophobic/ Racist and he just answered "it was wrong". When asked why it was wrong, he just said "it was wrong", absolutely pathetic. He was asked the question 6 times and didn't give an answer.
Watch/ listen to this, it's insane
link
MolteniArcore
Well-known member
The wolves are circling for sure. I thought he’d call a May GE but I was wrong - Sunak is just going to cling on for as long as he can.
I suppose the local elections in May will be the time when the party might try and get rid of him. If they lose even more ground they will finally realise that they need to change direction big time. Unfortunately for the Tories they will think that’s to move further right which will further alienate the voters.
If I was Sunak I would have called a May GE. I wouldn’t be enjoying having all these loons around me making me look weak and stupid. He’s got enough money - he doesn’t need the hassle. The only reason he isn’t doing that, in my opinion, is he’s so out of touch he actually thinks he’s doing a great job and he has a chance of getting a majority in the autumn. In fact he’ll just get embarrassed even more.
festa5
Well-known member
If you look at the Lee Anderson thread you'll see it's more than just one of them trotting out that line.
They've all been embarrassing themselves with it. Masterplan for handling from number 10 it would seem.
I don't think there's anyone - inside the Tory party or outside - who doesn't think they are going to lose the election.
There's not much point in changing leaders now. It's not going to affect anything at this stage, nobody would want the job except for a few oddballs who will make things even worse.
I'd say the only thing the Tories can do is delay and hope for a miracle. It's more likely to be a meteorite screaming towards earth than a miracle, but the British psyche when facing adversity is always to delay.
SmallTown
Well-known member
Like I said, they are stirring up racial hatred so race riots could help them delay. I assume they'll also want Trump on the white house and pulling the US out of NATO responsibilities so wars like Ukraine can escalate
Not quite. Here's a mischievous suggestion - Sunak could introduce PR! They're going to be out of power anyway; at least Sunak could swan off to California with a significant political legacy. It would also trim Labour's sails.
Laughing
Well-known member
It's way too late to get PR through parliament before the next election. That is assuming they would even entertain it, which they wouldn't.
It would be an entertaining gambit though.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
I've thought for a while that they'll hang on as long as possible - as the polls are not narrowing
They can leave it until late January - and as they have no plan but to stoke division I can see them cling on until they 'run out of road'
They'll be hoping to get some mud stuck on Labour with today's by-election - but don't think it will
They can leave it until late January - and as they have no plan but to stoke division I can see them cling on until they 'run out of road'
They'll be hoping to get some mud stuck on Labour with today's by-election - but don't think it will