xG table

uncle_rico

Well-known member
The whole point of that xG stat is to highlight how poor our finishing has been.

A large part of the reason we've had rubbish results is because we don't put away many of the big chances we manage to create.

We're also conceding soft/fluke goals by the barrelful.
We've got the lowest expected goals conceded in the Championship too.

I'm not sure why some are taking offence at the stats.
They indicate that we create plenty of chances and aren't exposed to too many, but we need to do better with the chances that do occur.
They're not saying that we "deserve" to be 1st in table, or that we've been robbed, it's just a helpful stat to help show where we can improve.
I'm not sure anyone is taking offence, but I don't need a stat to tell me that we can't hit the back of the net. I appreciate some may find it useful, I personally don't. I suppose if it ever becomes something that affects your position in the league table then I'll start taking notice of it.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
Absolutely. The club won't be using it in isolation either.

I think the criticism of Wilder referring to it is unfair. He's not (as far as I'm aware) using to say the league table is lying or that everything is fine. He's pretty much saying "look, we are creating chances, we are causing problems for the opposition" which is a fair interpretation of the stat I think?

It's become a stick to beat him with for some, but not sure what they want to him to say "yeah we are **** and I'm ignoring all the data that suggests anything otherwise because the league table is all that matters"?
To be honest I didn't hear the comment from Wilder. He does seem a pretty straight bloke though so it would seem reasonable to take him at face value.

Let's be honest when a team is doing well the manager can say what he wants. When we are underperforming fans deconstruct everything a manager says and look for meaning that may well, not be there.
 

indeedido

Well-known member
Even the supporters of XG accept it is not predictive.
If it is an Indicator that correlates with and explains past performance, then after 10 matches why are we top of the XG table and 22nd in the only one that counts?
That is a massive discrepancy.
I speak as someone without an agenda against Wilder, if anything I think he has been sold down the river.
I also speak as somebody able to understand how the model works in principle, it is not difficult to get your head around.
The OP table illustrates just how poor the methodology is to explain what has happened after ten rounds. At least even it’s groupies have admitted it is is no predictor.
 

Rofesleg

Well-known member
People talk about 'shots' or 'shots on target' as relevant stats when reviewing a match.
xG is just a more accurate version of that really.
I wouldn't think anyone should use it in algorithms to try and win money.
 

Nano

Well-known member
The issue is that some think the stat is worthless and some put more store in it than they ought to. It's the best single indicator of performance that we have. But it still isn't very good, particularly on its own.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. It's probably a little bit better better than corners but, probably, much worse than corners and possession used together.

I would largely agree that pointing to xG alone and claiming that we were unlucky shouldn't wash with fans, particularly over a sequence of games. Either the results or the xG tend toward the mean. However, in our case, just watching games should be enough to suggest we, probably, deserve a couple more points.
The best indicator we have is the league table. Points is best, goal difference next.

You can be unlucky in a game. If you are unlucky for 10 games you probably aren't unlucky, just rubbish.
 

changingman

Well-known member
They will have done though, it’s a pointless stat that means absolutely nothing. If only xG got you the points.
That's the point though? It usually correlates well with league position.

We're a massive anomaly this season, a team winning most games via xG but struggling to put points on the board.
 

Cardiffdaffs

Well-known member
The best indicator we have is the league table. Points is best, goal difference next.

You can be unlucky in a game. If you are unlucky for 10 games you probably aren't unlucky, just rubbish.
Of course it is. But when we are trying to find an answer to our problems a lot still can’t put their finger on it so any stats which help focus on areas we need to address can’t be bad.
 

changingman

Well-known member
People talk about 'shots' or 'shots on target' as relevant stats when reviewing a match.
xG is just a more accurate version of that really.
I wouldn't think anyone should use it in algorithms to try and win money.
Yep, I think that's where it came from originally? A way of "describing" those shots in effect.

Otherwise a team could just bang in loads of attempts from 35 yards and, on paper, look like they had dominated the play.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
The best indicator we have is the league table. Points is best, goal difference next.

You can be unlucky in a game. If you are unlucky for 10 games you probably aren't unlucky, just rubbish.
It is over a run of games but not so much in a single game. Your punt about 10 games is well made and either our xG or our points will revert to the mean at some point. The SD with xG is quite large.
 

Nano

Well-known member
Of course it is. But when we are trying to find an answer to our problems a lot still can’t put their finger on it so any stats which help focus on areas we need to address can’t be bad.
We need to be better at shooting and defending.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
XG is a very broadtool. but it is used to some extent by bookmakers to help predict the future. Hence our odds are relevely short to finish top 6 even though we are in the bottom 3. Bookies are more times right than wrong, as they say have you ever seen a poor bookmaker?

Last season we struggled up the end of November but still finished 7th.

When Leicester won the Premier League is there anybody on here that believed they were clearly the best team in the league that season? (sometimes things fall your way).
 

Laughing

Well-known member
XG is a very broadtool. but it is used to some extent by bookmakers to help predict the future. Hence our odds are relevely short to finish top 6 even though we are in the bottom 3. Bookies are more times right than wrong, as they say have you ever seen a poor bookmaker?

Last season we struggled up the end of November but still finished 7th.

When Leicester won the Premier League is there anybody on here that believed they were clearly the best team in the league that season? (sometimes things fall your way).
There are very fine margins, particularly in our league where there are no gimmes.

of course xG is used as part of predictive tools and you are also right that we are generally way too short a price to win games than we ought to be, given our league position. Bookies may be basing prices on multiple factors, one of which is probably how fancied you are at the start of a season along with, of course xG, league position, goals scored and conceded PPG over multiple time frames. I suspect the algorithms are complex and almost certainly involve deepnets.
 

GazC_MFC

Well-known member
People who know how football works = understand the importance of using xg data

People who dismiss xg data , well…..
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
Lets look at fine margins.

Boro/Rotherham 17/9/22

Watmore's second half shot was going in and the Rotherham goalie got a very fine touch to it to deflect it onto the inside of the post, that deflection caused the ball to move around 2 inches? to stop a goal, that probably was the difference between 1 point and 3 points. Over a season that could be 92 points difference if it happened in every game.

At least xG records that as a close chance.
 

Redwurzel

Well-known member
A disadavatage with xG is that it is historic to some extent i.e it reflects past performance.

If a team signs better quality players or better quality players return from injury etc the xG will be inaccurate if it is projected onto future performance and vice versa. Look at Newcastle last season their performance and results picked up after the Saudi investment, as better players were brought in during the Jan window. But say in February the xG would have reflected performance with a weaker team.
 

Abel Tasman

Well-known member
A disadavatage with xG is that it is historic to some extent i.e it reflects past performance.

If a team signs better quality players or better quality players return from injury etc the xG will be inaccurate if it is projected onto future performance and vice versa. Look at Newcastle last season their performance and results picked up after the Saudi investment, as better players were brought in during the Jan window. But say in February the xG would have reflected performance with a weaker team.
What stats predict future outcomes, like Saudi oil money arrives, pass go collect £1 billion.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
A disadavatage with xG is that it is historic to some extent i.e it reflects past performance.

If a team signs better quality players or better quality players return from injury etc the xG will be inaccurate if it is projected onto future performance and vice versa. Look at Newcastle last season their performance and results picked up after the Saudi investment, as better players were brought in during the Jan window. But say in February the xG would have reflected performance with a weaker team.
Thats what short term stats do, last 4 and 8 games, typically. They are supposed to, quickly, capture an upturn, or indeed, a downturn in form quicker than season long stats.

Whilst it is historic, it can still be used to predict outcomes, every stat is historic and can be used to some extent or another. Oddly enough relative league position is pretty good at predicting outcomes and it is one of the few current stats that we have.

Generally, if you want to predict the outcome of games you are either a backer or a bookie and to get any sort of edge you have to focus on something other bettors don't. This won't improve your strikerate but it will improve your odds. For example lady jokeys used to make a profit in racing, just backing them blindly as most backers just assumed women would be weaker in a tight finish so tended to lower the horses relative chance in their thinking so are less likely to back it, leading to an inflated pice.
 
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