xG table

[festa5]

I think we were unlucky earlier in the season Festa, not so sure we are now. On saturday their keeper was excellent. Their goal, not withstanding our giving the ball away, was very well executed.

Earlier in the season, it just seemed like non-scoring players were scoring regularly against us with worldies from 25 yards.

I once scored from the halfway line straight from kickoff. Not a lob, all power as their keeper was messing about. What a goal. Our club captain said, in hiss droll fashion, it went straight, for once. Statistical anomalies tend toward the norm over time, as did my finishing!

Also posted this a couple of minutes ago and it didn't appear and half the content was missing.

Suppose when it comes to talking about luck it's all about interpretation to an extent.

Does the Bristol keeper always perform like that or was it an anomaly? If that's his best game of the season I think you can probably say we're a bit unlucky to have caught him in that sort of form.

 

[Laughing]

Suppose when it comes to talking about luck it's all about interpretation to an extent.

Does the Bristol keeper always perform like that or was it an anomaly? If that's his best game of the season I think you can probably say we're a bit unlucky to have caught him in that sort of form.

True enough about the keeper. I suspect he doesn't play every game like that or he would be in the prem.

 

[indeedido]

After 19 league matches, this highlights how xG can't get anywhere near correlating with the actual league table. Not even close.

 

[Laughing]

After 19 league matches, this highlights how xG can't get anywhere near correlating with the actual league table. Not even close.

It will indeedio, just not quickly. If you fit xg to a distribution curve of results, it has a long tail. If you use just the top 75th percentile, you get a lot closer. The problem it has, is it takes a long time to tend to the mean and the changes in team selection make it even harder to anticipate whether it is accurate or not.

All that said, if you were to use it as a predictive tool, and were very selective in which games you used it to predict, you would be quite accurate. Predicting all game results is tough, which is why I don't bother. I can get very accurate predictions, but at crappy prices. In other words, games we would all agree on the probable result.

 

[indeedido]

It will indeedio, just not quickly. If you fit xg to a distribution curve of results, it has a long tail. If you use just the top 75th percentile, you get a lot closer. The problem it has, is it takes a long time to tend to the mean and the changes in team selection make it even harder to anticipate whether it is accurate or not.

All that said, if you were to use it as a predictive tool, and were very selective in which games you used it to predict, you would be quite accurate. Predicting all game results is tough, which is why I don't bother. I can get very accurate predictions, but at crappy prices. In other words, games we would all agree on the probable result.

I think we are talking at cross purposes here?

After 19 matches some perverse looking positions.

West Brom 22nd in League table versus 1st in xG table
Middlesbrough 20th versus 2nd
Stoke 19th versus 7th.
Blackburn 2nd versus 15th
QPR 5th versus 17th
Preston 6th versus 20th

 

[Otto42]

We were top of XG under Wilder, that bloody Carrick’s useless

 

[johnsmithsno2]

As a stat it doesn’t mean anything does it. We are sitting in the bottom 3.

What you mean is that it's not as important as the actual points stat. Certainly not meaningless, though.

 

[Laughing]

I think we are talking at cross purposes here?

After 19 matches some perverse looking positions.

West Brom 22nd in League table versus 1st in xG table
Middlesbrough 20th versus 2nd
Stoke 19th versus 7th.
Blackburn 2nd versus 15th
QPR 5th versus 17th
Preston 6th versus 20th

Were not really at cross purposes. I just didn't explain it very well. Xg will revert to the mean, but it might take 3 seasons!

 

[CarrickBall]

Suppose when it comes to talking about luck it's all about interpretation to an extent.

Does the Bristol keeper always perform like that or was it an anomaly? If that's his best game of the season I think you can probably say we're a bit unlucky to have caught him in that sort of form.

Or do other strikers in the division not give him the chance to save shots consistently throughout the game, through better finishing.

Being high in the XG table, but outside the relegation zone by a midgie's knacker in the actual real table, suggests our strikers don't convert enough chances/aren't clinical enough/miss easy chances.

Akpom sitter from 3 yards out at home a couple of weeks back? Fantastic save or Akpom's dogshit attempt at finishing the chance? 2 points dropped right there.

 

[BoroPhil]

Or do other strikers in the division not give him the chance to save shots consistently throughout the game, through better finishing.

Being high in the XG table, but outside the relegation zone by a midgie's knacker in the actual real table, suggests our strikers don't convert enough chances/aren't clinical enough/miss easy chances.

Akpom sitter from 3 yards out at home a couple of weeks back? Fantastic save or Akpom's dogshit attempt at finishing the chance? 2 points dropped right there.

As said above I think in our case it's the other end - we are letting in far too many 'difficult' goals. How many have we conceded from outside the box? I'd be amazed if it wasn't a divisional high. We've also had a few deflected goals go in.

As an example in the table below we are the best in the division at conceding xG from set pieces yet nearly the worst at conceding actual goals from set pieces. Which suggests individual mistakes.

 

[Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret]

I think we are talking at cross purposes here?

After 19 matches some perverse looking positions.

West Brom 22nd in League table versus 1st in xG table
Middlesbrough 20th versus 2nd
Stoke 19th versus 7th.
Blackburn 2nd versus 15th
QPR 5th versus 17th
Preston 6th versus 20th

The table is lying though.

 

[festa5]

Or do other strikers in the division not give him the chance to save shots consistently throughout the game, through better finishing.

Being high in the XG table, but outside the relegation zone by a midgie's knacker in the actual real table, suggests our strikers don't convert enough chances/aren't clinical enough/miss easy chances.

Akpom sitter from 3 yards out at home a couple of weeks back? Fantastic save or Akpom's dogshit attempt at finishing the chance? 2 points dropped right there.

If you read my earlier post, you'll see that yes, I agree. Our finishing is poor and that's nothing to do with luck.

Re: Brizzles keeper. Don't know, not a goalkeeping expert so don't know how many of those you'd expect an average keeper to save.

Pretty sure Lumley or Bettinelli would've conceded at least 3 of them though!

 

[Redwurzel]

I tend to use goal attempts by each team to gauge a game - with about 8 attempts equating to a goal.