When’s the second wave?

Facefuzz

Well-known member
#1
Covid.
Given VE Day and blm protests were over a month ago. Lockdown has pretty much ended for many and cases, hospital admissions and deaths continue to fall then why no second wave
We’ve massively over recorded anyway but seems odd to me that it’s still on the decline.
Is it seasonal?
Have we built immunity?
I was dubious to start with but now I’m really starting to doubt what we are being told.
 

Facefuzz

Well-known member
#4
Winter is an obvious concern if it is more seasonal.
I hope there isn’t a second wave.
Given the decline in figures alongside the easing of restrictions and mass gatherings then I think I’d it was coming we will have seen a spike already and we haven’t.
 

BobUpnDown

Active member
#6
It's not a seasonal virus - its all over the world now - it's been with us for Spring & Summer - it's autumn & winter in other areas of the world..
its a new virus.. & due to the actions we all took, stay home, socially distance - clean hands & catch: coughs & sneezes - we've regained a level of control, despite the numbers of infections & deaths (forget what may be poor recording of 'covid' deaths & look at the number of - extra - deaths than usual.... the majority of those will be covid related, if not directly)

2nd wave... we'll see infection numbers increase again when the unhygienic, selfish & ignorant - start to gather en-mass again. Once people start getting colds & go back to old bad habits of not catching their coughs / sneezes that will speed the covid spread again.
 

dooderooni

Well-known member
#7
Exactly what Bob said. Despite our far too high per capita death toll (subject to reporting issues) and the generally crap government response, we have managed to bring the infection levels down to a level where it can be kept in check if we continue to be vigilant.
We desperately need an effective contact tracing system before cold and flu season starts to kick in.
 

Wilf

Well-known member
#8
The second wave wont be the end of it, there will be a third, and a 4th etc etc - the quicker we change the way we are organised and living the better.

i see that theres an outbreak of The (Bubonic) Plague over in the USA.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
#10
The second wave wont be the end of it, there will be a third, and a 4th etc etc - the quicker we change the way we are organised and living the better.

i see that theres an outbreak of The (Bubonic) Plague over in the USA.
The bubonic plague isn't as rare as people think apparently.
 

boromike85

Well-known member
#12
The bubonic plague isn't as rare as people think apparently.
It's not common but it still exists. I was reading about it recently, Under 1000 cases per year, about 10% mortality with treatment. It is easily treatable in most cases with antibiotics which obviously wasn't the case when it killed a third of Europe during the Black Death.
 

bear66

Well-known member
#13
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It's not common but it still exists. I was reading about it recently, Under 1000 cases per year, about 10% mortality with treatment. It is easily treatable in most cases with antibiotics which obviously wasn't the case when it killed a third of Europe during the Black Death.
It was prevalent in a Indian city I was working in in the 90s. Countries with a lot of poverty and poor access to health care still fear it, even, as you say, it should be simply curable.
 

hopesoboro

Well-known member
#15
It's not a seasonal virus - its all over the world now - it's been with us for Spring & Summer - it's autumn & winter in other areas of the world..
its a new virus.. & due to the actions we all took, stay home, socially distance - clean hands & catch: coughs & sneezes - we've regained a level of control, despite the numbers of infections & deaths (forget what may be poor recording of 'covid' deaths & look at the number of - extra - deaths than usual.... the majority of those will be covid related, if not directly)

2nd wave... we'll see infection numbers increase again when the unhygienic, selfish & ignorant - start to gather en-mass again. Once people start getting colds & go back to old bad habits of not catching their coughs / sneezes that will speed the covid spread again.
the unhygienic, selfish & ignorant - are they responsible for all excess deaths so far?!
 

Juninho10

Active member
#17
I think we'll have a 'lull' for a few months - people will get complacent - then when winter flu / vomiting bugs hit - hospitals will be overwhelmed and a second wave will happen around the same time
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
#18
Anders Tegnell revealed that the epidemiological team in Sweden are looking at three potential course. 1. Continued low level infections, declining. 2. Low backround levels but with outbreaks in different locations that spike and decline quickly. 3. A return to sustained growth in infection over winter. They consider 2. to be the most likely outcome.

Their picture is rapidly declining infections, despite increased testing, with low admissions to ICU (yesterday there were less than 50 people in ICUs in Sweden). Daily death rate is now single figures.
 

atypical_boro

Well-known member
#20
I think we'll have a 'lull' for a few months - people will get complacent - then when winter flu / vomiting bugs hit - hospitals will be overwhelmed and a second wave will happen around the same time
If mass sport gatherings, concerts and packed pubs continue to be illegal then I really don’t see a second wave happening at all. Any slight increase in cases would be publicised, alert level raised, and society will deal with it. That’s surely the reason for no genuine “second waves” in other countries yet? I'm no expert, but surely its big gatherings of tens of thousands of people all over the country at once are the likely cause of a second wave? Even the odd BLM protest seems to have had little affect.
 
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