Todays interest rate rise.

House prices don't tend to fall much, they stagnate but rarely fall. If people can't get the price they want they just don't sell instead of selling for less than they think it's worth. So all that happens is the total houses available for sale reduces and you're left with the ones that people have to sell which get reduced because they need the sale. All the people that want to sell but aren't desperate just wait because not only are they not getting the price they want for theirs but there are no good houses available for them to buy.
My next door neighbour has had her house up for 3 months. Priced too high in my opinion but it's what she needed to get the bungalow she wanted. After lots of viewings she only received one offer which was £20k below asking price. She declined and has taken the house off the market.

This is in line with what Nano said.

For context, I had my house valued just over a year ago and was valued £5k more than my neighbours was listed for. Same property layout. My house would be finished better, newer boiler, new kitchen and newer bathroom as hers has had very little done in the last 20 years. Given the avenue I live on is usually in high demand and houses very rarely remain on the market more than a month, I think this is an indication that demand is definitely decreasing.
 
Quite right. But I don't see any evidence or reason why the slump won't continue. We are effectively in a recession, interest rates going up, cost of living including energy bills squeezing affordability, lack of confidence in government fiscal policy, austerity on the horizon, tax rises etc - non of this screams house price rises to me. I'm not even sure a stamp duty cut would help.
Lack of house building and increased cost of construction materials, plus every increasing population is continuing the supply:demand issue. In real terms the price of a house will not come down until that SD ratio changes.
 
Interest rates merely going back to their historic average of about 5%. Too much cheap money since 2009 plus the billions splurged on the pandemic from the magic money tree.Bank of England rather asleep at the wheel.
 
Houses are now sitting and being reduced in my area, following a very buoyant period. I moved in April 2021 but continue to monitor Rightmove once a week just to see how the markets doing.
 
House prices don't tend to fall much, they stagnate but rarely fall. If people can't get the price they want they just don't sell instead of selling for less than they think it's worth. So all that happens is the total houses available for sale reduces and you're left with the ones that people have to sell which get reduced because they need the sale. All the people that want to sell but aren't desperate just wait because not only are they not getting the price they want for theirs but there are no good houses available for them to buy.
This sums up our current position Nano.
We had decided in late spring to try and capitalise on the price surge and downsize.
We got an acceptable offer slightly below what we had targeted.
The mini budget, interest rate surge, global energy crime, and inflation has resulted in lots of squeaky bums.
Our buyer is dragging heels and clearly wants to re-negotiate down, despite the Memorandum of Sale being explicitly clear that the sale price is fixed.
We don't need to sell and won't below what was agreed.
Other interest has died, so we are resigned to staying put for 3-4 years before we go again.
It's not a big deal for us, but I really feel for others who do need to sell in a falling market - and believe me it is.

The interest rate comparison thing is interesting - there are always arguments about who has/had it worse and there are many variables.
One thing remains true, that people have selective memories. Remember when people were moaning about endowment shortfalls, yet failed to equate that with collapsing interest rates on their mortgages and huge amounts of extra cash they had as a result, or how they pushed to houses they couldn't have otherwise have afforded.
 
Exactly it’s a supply and demand issue

I said this before since Thatcher and especially under Blair house prices jumped. Under Blair house prices jumped something like 150-250%

But wages didn’t rise. That’s why it’s caused in part by the baby boomers and it’s called inflating an asset

I’d love to know how Starmer plans to tackle the housing crisis which is at least 40 years in the making
Difficult to know the specific implementation but clearly a house building strategy.

He (starmer) said: “If you keep on inflating demand without increasing supply, house prices will only rise. And homes become less affordable for working people.”
 
I dont think many of the oldies in my life really remember what life was like, or have an idea of the changes in property prices v wages in reality.

50k houses and wife staying at home looking after the kids. No idea of childcare costs or demands.

I think we all live in our bubbles unfortunately.
Yeah my parents bought their house in nunthorpe for 55k in '86, my dad worked abroad and my mum packed in nursing to look after us all until we were done with school and times were hard for them at times but we had good food on the table, clothes, computers etc and lived in a food area.

I can't even imagine affording one of us to not work and we don't have kids, my parents had 3 😂
 
I wish people would realise this. Had a conversation with my elderly mother in law last week who didn't think a 6% mortgage was bad! "We had 14% back in the day" she exclaimed. I then had to explain to her exactly what you posted - 14% of £40k (the house value at the time) is different to 6% of £350k (her current house value).

I find the lack of understanding on this quite strange. People seem to have turned their brains off these last 10 years.
100% agree with this.

Too many people just look at the headline interest rate and make comparisons based on that. What actually matters is the monthly repayment as a proportion of disposable income, which has increased dramatically in recent decades.

Excellent thread from Ed Conway of Sky News on this subject. It’s from a couple of months ago but still relevant. He explains that, when you adjust for affordability, a 3% BoE interest rate today would be the equivalent of the 14.2% seen in 1980 (and that’s before we take MIRAS into account).

 
House prices don't tend to fall much, they stagnate but rarely fall. If people can't get the price they want they just don't sell instead of selling for less than they think it's worth. So all that happens is the total houses available for sale reduces and you're left with the ones that people have to sell which get reduced because they need the sale. All the people that want to sell but aren't desperate just wait because not only are they not getting the price they want for theirs but there are no good houses available for them to buy.

Quite right, they rarely fall, but when they do it is big. The last time was about 15% I think. I think there is a risk that we are heading this way. It will take some time to filter through but with these big mortgage rate hikes and energy bill increases we may risk repossessions and people being unable to afford to buy.
 
House prices to fall. Good or bad?

Depends on an individuals circumstances. Generally I think we need a bit of a realignment, prices are a bit daft atm, but any crash, in my opinion, wouldn't be sufficient to make homes affordable for the majority of people who can't afford them now.
 
I doubt if there will be a big correction in house prices. Demand for houses is far outweighing supply. The UK population is given as about 68 million but it’s quite possible that it is well in excess of this. My guess would be closer to 75 Milliion. Nationwide Bank give a worse case scenario of a drop of 30%. I think they are way off the mark. My guess would be a 3/4% drop over the next two years and then continuing increase due to population pressure.
 
Of course there is a need to build more new homes.
Buy to let and Holiday homes however needs serious overhaul too.

It is a very complex mess we have.
Our home is nearly always the biggest expense we have, the biggest drain on income.
Whether that is through buying or renting it.

So the % of post tax income taken by mortgage/rent should be a decent yardstick to compare different times. I'm sure somebody must have looked at this.
Then food and household goods may have changed massively in relation to post tax income. Until the last few months, groceries have never been cheaper.
Then there is fuel/cost of getting to work and the price of energy and how that has changed in relative terms.
These are the basics/fundamentals that everyone needs.

Everyone has got used to and expect other expenses, trappings of modern life. Telecoms/wifi/gadgets; Entertainment in all its forms; Travel and holidays; our appearance/cosmetics; clothes and footwear; cars/transport; eating away from home; booze/fags/drugs etc etc etc. We each make our own choices about what mix we can afford. We always have had to do so - EVERY GENERATION.
What seems clear is that for the first time in a long time, an awful lot of people are finding they can't afford those basics/fundamentals. They simply don't have enough coming in to cover them; the idea of the other stuff is not possible for them.
These are the people I feel for and we as a society led by our Government should be doing much more to support them, rather than worrying that others can no longer fritter away quite so much on non essentials.

All just my opinion.
 
I dont think many of the oldies in my life really remember what life was like, or have an idea of the changes in property prices v wages in reality.

50k houses and wife staying at home looking after the kids. No idea of childcare costs or demands.

I think we all live in our bubbles unfortunately.
historically going from single income to dual incomes mortgages sparked big rises in house prices putting housing beyond single incomes.
 
House prices to fall. Good or bad?
Whilst there’s a need for the housing market to settle down, deflation is never good for an economy.

If you know that prices are likely to be lower in 6 months time then today, a rational person will delay their purchase until that time. If, in 6 months time the same situation is unchanged, the rational person will delay purchase again. It leads to a deflationary spiral which is damaging to the economy.

In the UK, the economy as a whole is inextricably linked to the performance of the housing market (probably more than it should be), both in the activity in the construction industry for new build housing and in the ‘wealth effect’ that drives much of our consumerism. A period of deflation in the housing market, therefore, can have very damaging repercussions on the wider economy.

It’s no coincidence that, in the UK, periods of falling house prices have tended to coincide with very severe recessions.
 
I think we will see around 7-10% reduction in house prices. Mortgage rates will probably stabilised around 4-5% and therefore the market will slow.

My diary is the quietest it’s been for a long time. Will probably start getting busy with existing customers on the back of this announcement but there is already less prople buying homes and borrowing extra
 
2% to 6% is a larger increase than 8% to 11.5%
04 Sep 89​
13.88​
31 Aug 89​
13.84​
25 May 89​
13.75​
25 Nov 88​
12.88​
25 Aug 88​
11.88​
08 Aug 88​
10.88​
21 Jul 88​
10.38​
07 Jul 88​
9.88​
24 Jun 88​
8.88​
10 Jun 88​
8.38​
03 Jun 88​
7.88​
17 May 88​
7.38​

2.5% change or x4 that would be 7.38% going to 9.88% or 29.52%
May to July 88 3 month increase is closer to the Feb to Nov increase of 22..

03 Nov 22​
3.00​
22 Sep 22​
2.25​
04 Aug 22​
1.75​
16 Jun 22​
1.25​
05 May 22​
1.00​
17 Mar 22​
0.75​
03 Feb 22​
0.50​
 
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