Todays Championship Games

Andy_W said:
You probably know this, but an algorithm which is right 50% of the time is good if your algorithm is finding more value than it loses. i.e you might be right on 50% of 3/10 chances (paying 3.3-1) and wrong on 50% of 8/10 chances (losing 1.2-1). You win bigger on the wins, and lose less on the losses etc.

Not saying your algorithm does that mind, you'd need to stake it over 100 games and see if it is profitable. You would need to be better than 5-10% right to make up for the bookies margin mind, which is the big problem.
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I know what it's like over 6k games Andy. I know it's exact success rate at any phi correlation on any game being played. At low correlation it's a 50 50 chance in a 3 horse race.

Topically in the under 2.5 market it has above 70% success rate at over 0.55 correlation. The correlation shouldn't be confused with success rate though it is related. I have posted pie charts at various correlations previously.

It works so long as you are disciplined with money management. Lost 15 quid today so far from 600 invested in the 2 games traded over low scores. It's a tiny percentage roi.

Going man utd will put me in profit on the day. The prices are so good I doubled my investment to 600 on a single game.

Trading 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 on the score market. I will be out of the 0-0 market in the first 5 minutes or so. I will be out of the 1-0 markets in the first 20 minutes if the it's no goal. Its all profit from that point on.
 
Laughing said:
I know what it's like over 6k games Andy. I know it's exact success rate at any phi correlation on any game being played. At low correlation it's a 50 50 chance in a 3 horse race.

Topically in the under 2.5 market it has above 70% success rate at over 0.55 correlation. The correlation shouldn't be confused with success rate though it is related. I have posted pie charts at various correlations previously.

It works so long as you are disciplined with money management. Lost 15 quid today so far from 600 invested in the 2 games traded over low scores. It's a tiny percentage roi.

Going man utd will put me in profit on the day. The prices are so good I doubled my investment to 600 on a single game.

Trading 0-0 1-0 and 0-1 on the score market. I will be out of the 0-0 market in the first 5 minutes or so. I will be out of the 1-0 markets in the first 20 minutes if the it's no goal. Its all profit from that point on.
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Ah sorry, didn't realise you'd been doing it a while!

Yeah, the staking is the key, and where so many people mess up. Their system could actually work if they staked it correctly and allowed for variance.
 
Andy_W said:
Ah sorry, didn't realise you'd been doing it a while!

Yeah, the staking is the key, and where so many people mess up. Their system could actually work if they staked it correctly and allowed for variance.
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Finding an edge is relatively easy. Managing your betting is much more difficult. Of that there is no doubt.

Most people suffer because they want to turn 20 into 200 every day. I want to turn 20 into 20.50 and I would be delighted.
 
Laughing said:
Finding an edge is relatively easy. Managing your betting is much more difficult. Of that there is no doubt.

Most people suffer because they want to turn 20 into 200 every day. I want to turn 20 into 20.50 and I would be delighted.
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Yeah, you get nutters putting £100 in their account and putting it all on one straight bet, or even on like 3 bets on one game, it's insanity. I'd never risk more than 1% of account on any one straight bet, and maybe up to 5% which I was going to trade over a long duration.

I used to trade Tennis and Cricket, wouldn't touch footy or horses with a barge pole, as you get no time to get out of trouble.

I like betting on NFL but not having a fast stream and low liquidity on betfair can cause big problems.
 
Andy_W said:
Yeah, you get nutters putting £100 in their account and putting it all on one straight bet, or even on like 3 bets on one game, it's insanity. I'd never risk more than 1% of account on any one straight bet, and maybe up to 5% which I was going to trade over a long duration.

I used to trade Tennis and Cricket, wouldn't touch footy or horses with a barge pole, as you get no time to get out of trouble.

I like betting on NFL but not having a fast stream and low liquidity on betfair can cause big problems.
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The basic rule on bank % is very the percentage advantage you have. So if you know the result you should bet 100% of your bank. If you have a5% advantage net 5% and so on. I always know my advantage from nearly 2 years of stats. I bet about 10% on average. Usually looking for a1/2 payoff.

Out of the 0-0 now.
 
Out of the 1-0 now. I was vulnerable between trading out of the 0-1 and 1-0. Mistake on my part.
 

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I can carry on posting if anyone interested in the method I use? If not, no worries, it's quite boring.
 
Laughing said:
The basic rule on bank % is very the percentage advantage you have. So if you know the result you should bet 100% of your bank. If you have a5% advantage net 5% and so on. I always know my advantage from nearly 2 years of stats. I bet about 10% on average. Usually looking for a1/2 payoff.

Out of the 0-0 now.
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Yeah, that also depends on variance though, as you don't want the variance wiping you out. You could have a 20% chance, but getting 5 out of those wrong in a row is game over. Of course you could top up, but if you were going to do that you might as well do it at the start and work on smaller percentages to reduce risk/ variance.
 
Andy_W said:
Yeah, that also depends on variance though, as you don't want the variance wiping you out. You could have a 20% chance, but getting 5 out of those wrong in a row is game over. Of course you could top up, but if you were going to do that you might as well do it at the start and work on smaller percentages to reduce risk/ variance.
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If your Edge is genuinely 20% you would never wipe out betting 20% of your bank. Its not statistically impossible but very unlikely.
 
Just done the maths on a 20% coming up 5 times on the bounce is 3 times in every 10 k so not impossible. That's once every 3.3 thousand bets.
 
Taken a little bit out of the 0-0 and 0-1. Trying to maximise my trading opportunities if it goes 1-0. Cash out now stands at 273 though that can change very quickly.
 
Taken a wee bit more out of the 0-0,expecting a united goal.
 

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Not completely surprising 0-1 to wolves but reduced profit.

Now backed the 1-1 to cover an equaliser
 

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End of the game. 241 profit before commission. So about 238 profit.

I did trade based on an expected united win. Nothing wrong with that and I am happy with the result.

I made one mistake and that was trading out on the 0-1 too early and left myself vulnerable. That would have left me, had wolves scored, 75 quid profit with a large liability.

Live and learn. Hopefully some found this useful in terms of how to trade football games, AFTER YOU HAVE AN EDGE.....
 
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