Well, it's Friday ... I don't know how he has time to write this ****, he/we have been in meetings all day.
"Mental Dissociation is something we all can feel from time to time, being disconnected from the world and other people. It is only natural.
Problem come when people suffering from Dissociation, ie. are unable to relate to other people and the worldview is disconnected from reality. It is then called psychosis.
Problem is that we right now have an entire country suffering from Dissociation Disorder with the following psychosis. I am obviously talking about Russia.
It is caused by their entire worldview crashing down and a raving power vacuum.
In the eyes of almost all Russians they are a true Superpower and a great country with a god given right to rule over other countries. The first part was true decades ago, and the second part is a case of colonial psychopathy.
In reality they where at best a regional power with the ability to reach out globally towards other lesser powers.
And, there is no allowance in the modern world for colonialist imperial dreams and attitudes.
This causes a dissociation of rather stupendous nature as they discover that their worldview had nothing to do with reality.
Problem is that they are so far gone that as they discover what is real, they do not know how to handle it.
They are unable to admit that things are totally arsebuggered for them, and unable to deal with it in a rational way.
It is now clear to them that they have lost, they are even talking about it, and their impending group travel to Hague.
But, what is clear is that they do not know how to handle it.
Instead of sitting down and try to negotiate for some sort of negotiated peace limiting at least who will go to prison and the amount of restitution they all the time revent into psychosis.
This is obviously not helped at all by the power vacuum in Russia, there is no singular voice, or even group of people, running the show. This means that there are many voices proposing solutions to the problem.
In the end this might actually lead to Russia inventing democracy and pluralism, but that will be years in the making.
For now they are just acting even more disjointed and discombobulated (I love this word).
Here are the currently proposed solutions to their predicament:
- Mobilising another 300K soldiers without weapons and hope for a miracle. Duma
- Mobilising everyone and send them naked across the frontline. Okay, they will have regular clothes, but admit that it would be a sight to behold... The idea here is to somehow drench Ukraine in dead Russians. Propagandists
- Be stubborn and negotiate. Surovikin
- Drink Vodka and snort cocaine. Peskov
- Somehov force Ukraine to recognise Kherson, Crimea, Luhansk, Zhaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Donetsk as Russian Oblasts, and then negotiate for peace. Lavrov
- Negotiate for a settled peace, pay out the nostrils for decades, limiting the number of people sent to Hague, go and cry in the nearest forrest. Naryshkin
The first option has already been decided for January. It will obviously not help, but it will massage a few egos in the Duma.
The second option would crack Russia like an egg. Just the attempt at sending all of them to the front would end up with millions of Russians stuck on sidetracks across Russia starving to death. This most likely not what is going to happen.
The third option is happening as we speak. It is very clear now that this is what Surovikin is doing, hoping that someone in Moscow will start negotiating using the only bargaining chip they have. Being bloody stubborn in case they do not get something, at least Surovikin don't want to go to Hague... This is why he is not attacking anywhere and is spending so much effort on digging in.
The fourth option is popular in large circles of Moscow as the Siloviki are partying like not seen since Deccamerone. They see that it is the end of the world, and any debauchery is worth trying before it is to late.
Option five is just ludicruous and shows how far Lavrov have dropped down the deep end.
More and more are coming around to the Naryshkin view of things.
Personally I think it will be a merging of option 1, 3 and 6.
Surovikin is not stupid, he asked for 300 000 more Mobiks knowing it would at best delay the Ukrainian offensive. The Duma gave it to him, also knowing it would not produce any win. And Surovikin is hell bent on being stubborn using whatever he has left handing Ukraine a long shlog backwards to Russia.
That opens up for negotiations according to 6. In the end there are a lot of Russians who want immunity. Naryshkin, Surovikin and the Duma for one want it.
That leaves 3 that are not talking. Putin for rather obvious reasons, Patrushev and Soyghurt. No military is speaking now, they do not want to be associated with this shitfest, and Soyghurt is probably listening to them on the "shut up" part.
Patrushev is a tad uncomfy after someone torched his apartment and Naryshkin moved upwards into the sunlight due to this loss of face.
Regardless it is believed that Patrushev shares Naryshkins view, they are after all working with finding out what is real. Patrushev is though a raving hawk. Both of them obviously knows that they are buggered.
One thing is though clear, and that is that none of the Russian powerplayers have what it takes to take control.
The current theory is that Russia is heading towards a breakup, and that is why more and more Governors are setting up their own militias following Dondon Ramzans example.
Dondon Ramzan seems to be hellbent on waiting a bit, and then create his own country.
This is making a lot of Governors nervous since he has one of the 3 armies in Russia, and if the country breaks up many will be gobbled up by his forces.
Prigozhin is rapidly becoming a nobody after Surovikins dainty use of his rapists. Most of the Wagnerites are now dead in Bakhmut, so many that he is now recruiting soldiers openly in Central African Republic.
This obviously creates some questions...
Do we really want to keep Russia together?
How do we get control of the nukes?
How do we kill Dondon Ramzan?
What would be a bigger pain in the **** for Xi?
For now, we wait and see how the chips fall.
This ends the political part.
The US
In an act not seen since WWII it has been authorized to move technology from one producer and contracting other companies to produce the same product.
GMLRS and Himars will now be produced also by other suitable companies, doubling the production capacity in one go, and probably a lot more soon.
Boeing got a contract of delivering 10s of thousands of Himars compatible rockets that are cheaper and more longer ranged.
ALCOA, Atlas, and several others got contracts for almost ridiculous amounts of 155mm grenades and other ammunition.
Note, this is not needed for Ukraine as such. It is due to the west having rediscovered how much it takes to bump a big enemy off the chart.
Russia
If you have access to night time satellite imagery it might be worthwhile keeping track of Russian cities and towns in the hinterlands disappearing from "the map". The lack of maintenance is not helping, nor are the smoking incidents.
Frontlines
At Bakhmut Nothing New...
Behind the line safe from the mud artillery and tanks are lining up waiting for things to clear.
If Ukraine hit hard enough here it will be a major blow.
In Luhansk Ukraine are still manouvering into position taking village after village at high ground. Svatove is now more resembling a rat slowly being encircled and strangled by an anaconda.
In Zhaporizhzhia there has been a bit of manouvering too, as Ukraine are creating better positions. Also the artillery is slowly ramping up picking away at the Mobiks.
This leaves Kherson.
Surovikin has ordered the command and the civilian leaders to withdraw from Nova Kakhovka together with Russian civilians. Same with what remains of the Russians in Olechky after someone drove her Brigade through it after the confusion from the withdraval from North Kherson.
A couple of weeks of murderous Ukrainian artillery from the front, and a way to happy Brigadeer attacking their arses from behind was in the end a tad to much.
Unlike the other withdravals this was not according to Surovikins plan.
He misjudged how fast Ukraine could get the railroad bridge repaired and usable for armoured vehicles. He was thinking that Ukraine would repair it for rail, something that would have taken months.
Instead they just used a tank with a doser blade and shovelled the rail off the concrete bridge deck and went over with the rest of the brigade galumphing after... It was brilliantly daft, and they where gone into the steppes of Kherson in a jiffy leaving a few bewildered Russians behind.
And on top of that having Kinburn taken due to it not being reinforced enough.
Surovikin underrated the Ukrainians here, and that is a deadly mistake in war. He assumed they could not do what he could not do. Poop...
Leaving half of Southern Kherson behind is another deadly mistake on his part. Ukraine will just take that as a; Welcome as you please. And send in an entire army and plow on, the Nova Kakhovka dam is passable now... and the railbridge might not be ideal, but it is possible to run tanks and other stuff over if you have the nerves for it.
Conclusion
At a press conference in Moscow Lavrov sat, with only 13 viewers. Not even Russian state TV sent it out.
He was not allowed to the OSSE meeting to play with the big boys. Lavrov was cancelled.
It is what Russia has become. Not even ordinary Russians are watching them.
The vacuum is now so hard that anyone could drive a Death Star through the gates of Kremlin.
Question is who? If they do not get their **** together and undiscombobulate it will be Zelenskyy in August 2023.
I am though certain that some enterprising Russian will do it long before that.
As Konstantin is phrasing it, Tick Tock goes the crocodile it is coming closer.
I am still holding the 24th of this month as the end date.
It is though depending on Russia breaking down, and not being overly stubborn.
Military Russia is totally beat, we are now just waiting for the right weather conditions so that Ukraine can take a couple of Regions.
Right now it looks like Zhaporizhzhia, but Ukraine tends to do something else than the expected.
I say follow the Himars. Half of them are in Kherson, the rest are divided up among the rest.
Half of the 155mm barrel artillery is in Kherson. Their heaviest mechanised army corps is in Kherson.
Ukraines best commanders are in Kherson.
And, it is the easiest target to take right now.
This means that they will probably take Arkhangelsk or something.
If Bakhmut turns into a route, Luhansk is moving, and Kherson is largely taken and they are knockin on the gates of Crimea Russia will go home, and all of this is eminently doable before the 24th. Same with someone actually grabbing the reigns in Moscow and saying 'nuff, let's go.
Next peace date is between late february to late april. By then Russia is out of Ukraine regardless, and in August if they really intend to continue.
Circling back, now they have chips to play by offering to go home quietly. In April they do not have Chips. In Auguest they will lose entire Oblasts forever to a new very angry Superukraine...
It is here good to remember that it may end up with Ukraine having to enter Russia to save Russia... from whome is the question really.
Am I nervous that I may be wrong on the 24th? Obviously, in war though shalt not be overly cocky.
Problem is that I am using logic and math to it prognosticate the outcome, and I know I am often overly rational, and Russia is not rational.
I am quite open to having missed the human aspect of it. Question is if that makes me or Russia dissociated?"