The end?
- Thread starter borolad259
- Start date
Yes but they’re using up a lot conscripts who don’t want to be there. They can degrade the infrastructure with missiles as much as they like, but those spaces will eventually have to occupied by flesh and bone soldiers, were will they come from, because conscription will fail eventually.
Yes, I think they will fail eventually but I don’t they’ll be in a hurry to do so.
They are running on fumes. The only reason it's not already over is because they have no cohesion in the leadership. \they all know that they are done, but they don't agree upon how best to be done while saving face, avoiding the Hague and keeping as much as they can. If they were smart, they'd negotiate early. But, collectively, they aren't smart and, although sick, Putin still carries clout. Look at it from their POV. They have got themselves into a position that they are not psychologically prepared for. Each individual in the leadership will be both looking for control, trying not to fall out of a window, and trying not to go to The Hague ..... whilst protecting personal and family wealth/status etc. None of them, Putin included, because he knows he is fecked anyway, know how to negotiate and end. Which is tragic, because their only answer is to buy time by throwing ordinary Russians under the Ukrainian bus.
Norfolkred1
Well-known member
Or fast forward to the bunker scene for many of them.
The only one who really seems to get it is Naryshkin, because he has a more global outlook. But he doesn't have enough clout on his own. Lavrov also understood but has, seemingly, had his wings clipped.
North Devon Red
Member
This is a such interesting post into the hindsight behind the war - wondering if Iran's intervention will change the balance slightly or will the West's already massive contribution move this to moving it over the line ....who knows
Norfolkred1
Well-known member
Looks like India is backing away from Pootin as well, and rightly so.
TeessideCleveland
Well-known member
Explosions reported at a barracks in temporarily occupied Melitopol , Ukraine - as well as at Simferopol and Sebastopol in temporarily occupied Crimea, Ukraine
Quite a few 'carelessly discarded cigarettes' by the looks of it....
Quite a few 'carelessly discarded cigarettes' by the looks of it....
Decent_Left
Well-known member
Interesting perspective from the ISW a couple of days ago that whilst the Rashists are happy enough to use the freed jailbirds as fuel to keep the "pressure" on and buy time till next spring there is actually a significant build up of properly trained better equipped reserves in Belarus just now ready for when the weather improves.
I know it shouldnt by now but it just amazes me the callous attitude to life that Country has for its citizens.
On a happier note as well as getting into the semis on Friday this happened as well
Rishworthian
Well-known member
Putin - your description of his medical condition is interesting as it sounds very like diverticular disease - generally speaking it is not life threatening but more of a nuisance. Very easy to look up
The constipation will no doubt also have produced piles - again a bloody nuisance but not life threatening
It could be bowel cancer but it doesn't sound that likely from what you have picked up
The constipation will no doubt also have produced piles - again a bloody nuisance but not life threatening
It could be bowel cancer but it doesn't sound that likely from what you have picked up
It's not me but my friend/associate.
He (Putin) did indeed have piles earlier this year, treated by his daughter (who was also his physician at the time). The story that he had been got by polonium came from someone close enough to Putin to know. It may, of course, have been a fib. But then it would be hard to ascribe a motive to that. Feck, I don't know. What amazes me is how intelligence types work.
And a sharp handbrake turn
"The war has changed again.
The news and the web has been filled with news about artillery and rocket attacks along the battlefront.
And Ukraine have attacked many barracks killing a lot of Russian soldiers in the back part of Donetsk, Zhaporizhzhia Oblast in Melitopol, Tokmak and Berdyansk, same goes for in Kherson.
It has been one barracks after another blowing up with winter huddling Russians.
It is estimated that more than 1000 soldiers was killed, and another 1000 wounded.
What is different is the amount of heavy attacks done both with drones and missiles in Crimea. Almost all bases have been hit there in the last 24 hours.
Also, over at Kursk several attacks have occured.
Ukraine has changed modus operandi again with the barracks attacks now that Russians are trying to huddle to stay warm. This obviously makes them into prime targets.
Also, something has changed. I do think that Ukraine has gotten permission to use Western supplied weapons inside Russia and down in Crimea, and that the West have supplied new long range weaponry that by far exceeds a GMLRS.
Also, Russias last Spetznas unit seized to exist today. Someone had sent them to reinforce over in Bakhmut, and they where taken out by an artillery barrage. Surovikin is fuming at Patrushev for this interfering in the war.
Winter
The numbers of Russians surrendering into Ukrainian hands has skyrocketed in the last week. So much so that the Russians had a general shot who had a large number of people surrendering.
There has also been an entire part of the front between Vuhledar and Donetsk City where the troops just gave up and walked away into the villages due to weather.
The soldiers clumping up in barracks, giving up, or just walking away has a reason that is quite dark.
In the last 24 hours alone at the hospital in Luhansk they had to perform more than 400 amputations due to frostbites, mostly of feet and legs.
That is at a single hospital.
They rapidly ran out of anestesia, so they had to perform them without to try and save lives.
As I said, tosty feet is important. And that requires dry clean sock at a steady supply. It also requires good shoes.
And neither of it is available for the Russians.
Mobikification
So, to solve this problem the police in Russia is now openly grabbing people on the streets all over Russia, putting them into buses as they are, and sending them to the frontlines without any equipment in the clothes they wear when they are grabbed.
30 000 of them have been sent in the last 3 days.
The frozen corpses of the Mobiks have geen given a name, Russicles.
The drone photage available is just horrendous of the trenches filled with Russicles and nothing else that is alive.
The war has turned into auto-genocide of the Russian population.
China
Xi had to make a very hard choice, Russian oil to feed Chinas industry, or lose the EU and US markets.
All Chinese ships had to stop going to Russian ports to load oil since they can't be insured, and the shipping companies would lose the ability to enter Western ports.
This means that they can only get oil from Russia on Russian tankers.
China right now only has oil for 80 days left and no way to get more at a sufficient rate.
Xi has pleaded with both the US and the EU to get an exception, but neither had any of it and sent him packing with the message that he had to go and push Putin to give up.
Modi of India came to the same conclusion and asked Putin to sod off, withdrew from the India/Russia Summit, and told him to stop being a d*ck and go home.
That oil cap was really something.
The Urals Oil price is today 53.69USD, but it is traded with an 8USD discount.
As a reminder, the production cost is 55USD FOB per barrel.
And, at any time the West can lower the price cap... it was an economic doomsday weapon.
How could it be so brutal?
Well, it was masterminded by Khodorkovsky and Browder, they knew where to hit, and how.
Conclusion
There is now open begging in Russian war channels to give up.
Both on telegram, in military chatrooms, and behind the scenes in Moscow.
Problem is that nobody is seemingly in power.
All of the Oblast Governers have asked Kremlin to quit, or at least send troops to defend them against the upcoming Ukrainian invasion. Yes, they really believe Ukraine will open fronts directly into Russia as soon as things freeze.
And that is openly being discussed now behind the scenes.
Perhaps not before the New Year, but most definitely in the spring campaign.
And Russia knows this, they have even been told so behind the scenes during the last meeting with Naryshkin.
At the same time, the G7 and the EU have reissued the Ukrainian 10 step negotiation list.
Even Macron has now conveyed them to Russia.
China and India has also gotten in contact with Kremlin telling them that it is enough now, and that the 10 step list is about as good as it gets, and that Russia will not get any aid from them.
And that has swayed the midle east states, Oman was the trailblazer as they sent a NASAMS unit to Ukraine today, with several others expected to follow.
It is all coming to a clinch now, exactly as I thought it would.
Now, either Russia gives up, or are crushed as soon as the ground is completely frozen on the battlefield.
Only remaining question is if there is anyone in Russia with a working brain and a modicum of testicular fortitude.
If so we will have peace at my predicted time, or we will get a couple of more months of massacred Russians.
I have hope."
"The war has changed again.
The news and the web has been filled with news about artillery and rocket attacks along the battlefront.
And Ukraine have attacked many barracks killing a lot of Russian soldiers in the back part of Donetsk, Zhaporizhzhia Oblast in Melitopol, Tokmak and Berdyansk, same goes for in Kherson.
It has been one barracks after another blowing up with winter huddling Russians.
It is estimated that more than 1000 soldiers was killed, and another 1000 wounded.
What is different is the amount of heavy attacks done both with drones and missiles in Crimea. Almost all bases have been hit there in the last 24 hours.
Also, over at Kursk several attacks have occured.
Ukraine has changed modus operandi again with the barracks attacks now that Russians are trying to huddle to stay warm. This obviously makes them into prime targets.
Also, something has changed. I do think that Ukraine has gotten permission to use Western supplied weapons inside Russia and down in Crimea, and that the West have supplied new long range weaponry that by far exceeds a GMLRS.
Also, Russias last Spetznas unit seized to exist today. Someone had sent them to reinforce over in Bakhmut, and they where taken out by an artillery barrage. Surovikin is fuming at Patrushev for this interfering in the war.
Winter
The numbers of Russians surrendering into Ukrainian hands has skyrocketed in the last week. So much so that the Russians had a general shot who had a large number of people surrendering.
There has also been an entire part of the front between Vuhledar and Donetsk City where the troops just gave up and walked away into the villages due to weather.
The soldiers clumping up in barracks, giving up, or just walking away has a reason that is quite dark.
In the last 24 hours alone at the hospital in Luhansk they had to perform more than 400 amputations due to frostbites, mostly of feet and legs.
That is at a single hospital.
They rapidly ran out of anestesia, so they had to perform them without to try and save lives.
As I said, tosty feet is important. And that requires dry clean sock at a steady supply. It also requires good shoes.
And neither of it is available for the Russians.
Mobikification
So, to solve this problem the police in Russia is now openly grabbing people on the streets all over Russia, putting them into buses as they are, and sending them to the frontlines without any equipment in the clothes they wear when they are grabbed.
30 000 of them have been sent in the last 3 days.
The frozen corpses of the Mobiks have geen given a name, Russicles.
The drone photage available is just horrendous of the trenches filled with Russicles and nothing else that is alive.
The war has turned into auto-genocide of the Russian population.
China
Xi had to make a very hard choice, Russian oil to feed Chinas industry, or lose the EU and US markets.
All Chinese ships had to stop going to Russian ports to load oil since they can't be insured, and the shipping companies would lose the ability to enter Western ports.
This means that they can only get oil from Russia on Russian tankers.
China right now only has oil for 80 days left and no way to get more at a sufficient rate.
Xi has pleaded with both the US and the EU to get an exception, but neither had any of it and sent him packing with the message that he had to go and push Putin to give up.
Modi of India came to the same conclusion and asked Putin to sod off, withdrew from the India/Russia Summit, and told him to stop being a d*ck and go home.
That oil cap was really something.
The Urals Oil price is today 53.69USD, but it is traded with an 8USD discount.
As a reminder, the production cost is 55USD FOB per barrel.
And, at any time the West can lower the price cap... it was an economic doomsday weapon.
How could it be so brutal?
Well, it was masterminded by Khodorkovsky and Browder, they knew where to hit, and how.
Conclusion
There is now open begging in Russian war channels to give up.
Both on telegram, in military chatrooms, and behind the scenes in Moscow.
Problem is that nobody is seemingly in power.
All of the Oblast Governers have asked Kremlin to quit, or at least send troops to defend them against the upcoming Ukrainian invasion. Yes, they really believe Ukraine will open fronts directly into Russia as soon as things freeze.
And that is openly being discussed now behind the scenes.
Perhaps not before the New Year, but most definitely in the spring campaign.
And Russia knows this, they have even been told so behind the scenes during the last meeting with Naryshkin.
At the same time, the G7 and the EU have reissued the Ukrainian 10 step negotiation list.
Even Macron has now conveyed them to Russia.
China and India has also gotten in contact with Kremlin telling them that it is enough now, and that the 10 step list is about as good as it gets, and that Russia will not get any aid from them.
And that has swayed the midle east states, Oman was the trailblazer as they sent a NASAMS unit to Ukraine today, with several others expected to follow.
It is all coming to a clinch now, exactly as I thought it would.
Now, either Russia gives up, or are crushed as soon as the ground is completely frozen on the battlefield.
Only remaining question is if there is anyone in Russia with a working brain and a modicum of testicular fortitude.
If so we will have peace at my predicted time, or we will get a couple of more months of massacred Russians.
I have hope."
HarryVegas
Well-known member
From Sky News this morning ...
Putin scraps major annual news conference, Kremlin announces
Vladimir Putin watchers will be very familiar with his traditional end of year news conference.
The Russian president's annual fixture has normally involved him speaking for hours on end.
It may, therefore, be of some relief to anyone who might otherwise have been asked to endure his marathon public appearance to learn that it will not take place this year.
According to Russia's TASS news agency, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the event would not take place until the new year - but insisted the leader would find another opportunity to talk to journalists in the meantime.
"As for the eannual news conference, yes, there won't be one before the New Year, but we expect that the president will still find an opportunity to talk to [reporters], as he does regularly, including during his foreign visits," Mr Peskov said.
At the same time, the Kremlin spokesman did not discuss the possible date of the head of state's address to the Federal Assembly. "We will inform you in due time," he said.
Putin scraps major annual news conference, Kremlin announces
Vladimir Putin watchers will be very familiar with his traditional end of year news conference.
The Russian president's annual fixture has normally involved him speaking for hours on end.
It may, therefore, be of some relief to anyone who might otherwise have been asked to endure his marathon public appearance to learn that it will not take place this year.
According to Russia's TASS news agency, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the event would not take place until the new year - but insisted the leader would find another opportunity to talk to journalists in the meantime.
"As for the eannual news conference, yes, there won't be one before the New Year, but we expect that the president will still find an opportunity to talk to [reporters], as he does regularly, including during his foreign visits," Mr Peskov said.
At the same time, the Kremlin spokesman did not discuss the possible date of the head of state's address to the Federal Assembly. "We will inform you in due time," he said.
Herdy Flerdy Gerroot Ma Hus
"In the basement under the Presidential palace Zelenskyy is sitting with a heavy head.
He needs modern tanks and modern attack aircraft.
Problem is that all of NATOs big weapons producers say that they will not deliver until someone else delivers.
US said No.
Germany said Nein.
France said Je suis un saloupe de fromage.
UK said Attaboy.
It is looking dark and his head is heavy, soon the momentum of his army will start to drop. He needs those new weapon systems latest summer. And the only ones who could deliver that fast has not accepted his plea.
In his darkest hour an aide de camp comes in and tell him that there is a negotiator arrived.
A glimmer of hope shines in his tired eyes and he ask them to send in the negotiator.
In walks a man with an eggbeater in one hand and and a terrified turkey under the other, and for some reason a crayfish is peaking up from his apron, the white fluffly hat is rakishly sitting on the side, and the moustache is enormous.
Before Zelenskyy has time to ask what is going on the visitor starts talking.
"Börk börk!
Herdy dur flerty flööpin. I shmer der flömpty. Yer shööpin flerpty dur.
Bövövnä näd Möskvöyä, bööm!"
And out walks the man and the door is closed.
Zelenskyy is bewildered.
In the corner of his eye he sees tears of joy in the eye of his aide de camp who comes from Gammelsvenskby in Donetsk, one of the last places where Chefish is still spoken.
He asks what was said?
He said that we can buy and EU pays for 80 Jas-39 C/D and 80 Leapard 2 Block D, plus 24 more artillery pieces, 80 Riverine combat boat 90, and 80 Combat Vehicle 90...
At this point the sound of a President fainting with joy was heard in the presidential palace.
Because a major western arms producing power had just gone in first, and the others would have to follow.
And that is how the Swedish Chef makes his living when he is not cooking the dinner at the Nobel Award.
Now, imagine the sounds coming out of the EU when they realised that they will be shafted with footing the bill of enough weapons to arm a smaller nation, and to make a kickass airforce.
To be delivered during spring for the spring offensive, if needed.
In reality it was the Swedish Defence minister signing the deal, but he is such a ridiculous twerp that I do not give him any credit, so all hail the Swedish Chef instead.
Herdy dur flerty indeed!
Putin
The pundits are waxing about Putin getting ready to flee to either Central African Republic, Argentina or Venezuela.
This is obviously a lot of horseradish.
The two latter would just give the Ukrainian special forces his adress and tell them to come and pick him up.
And nobody with two cents in his brain would ever flee with his billions to CAR. He would just be promptly robbed and killed by the mad dictator there.
No, it will either be Iran, Turkey, or to Saudi Arabia.
My bet is on the latter.
Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome
This is how to best describe Russian politics right now.
Kadyrov is now arresting SOBR Police Officers. They are the federal police SWAT Team from Moscow.
This comes after a trumped up charge against one of them, a pure false flag attack.
He is sending the SOBRs (that have not yet fled back to Russia) directly to the frontline.
Basically he has said sod it and taken the first step of carving out his own country.
Out in the fringes of Chechnya there have been fights between SOBR troops and anti-kadyrovites on one side and Kadyrovites on the other.
Moscow is doing jack all about it, a sign of how far from reality they have fallen.
The most dangerous man in Russia is breaking away, and they are doing nothing.
Heck knows if they will even respond if he starts to grab adjacent parts with nuclear bases.
And the Cucumber (Girkin, or whatever) is sitting in Moscow belting out video after video that now has a cult following of more than 10 million Russians.
And once more nothing is done. No arrest, no protests, no nothing.
Instead they sent forth a drunk Medvedev, but he didn't have anything useful to say either.
This will not have gone unnoticed among the big league players, and also among mid-leaguers.
If the goon-squad is openly going for it now, it is time for them to make their moves.
Whoever of them can get one of the 3 powers in Russia to sign up behind his banner will immediately be at the forefront.
Patrushev is still banking on Medvedev. But he seems to have rather big personal problems right now, and does not seem to have the best contact with reality to be honest.
And also, both Patrushev and Medvedev are seen as tainted goods due to being Putinites through and through.
The military is divided. With rumours of Gerasimov being on the way out they have an internal power struggle.
And nobody in the military respects Soyghurt any longer.
So, unless Surovikin goes out and says that he supports someone, the army is out of the competition.
Surovikin will though most likely act if Kadyrov gets out of hand, but for now he is happily killing as many Wagnerites as possible.
That leaves Naryshkin.
Currently he has the upper hand in Moscow. He has also secured western support for if and when he acts.
Presumably he has made assurances to the liking of the West. Just being a sort of informant is not enough.
And to be adamantly clear here, he is not a spy, nor a double-agent. He has always only transmitted what is suiting Naryshkin, but it has always been good info even though limited in scope.
Problem for Naryshkin is that he has no Politico under his wings.
KGB has never been allowed to befriend the political caste, so he is starting behind the others on this.
It has been suggested to him that he would be currying his own favour with the West if he went and grabed one of the opposition leaders out of jail and made him the "peoples" champion, or invited in one from abroad of renown.
It was also hinted that the West would not miss Navalny if he had him bumped off in the process.
It was suggested that he should pick from Kasyanov, Kara-Murza or Kasparov.
He then lifted an eyebrow and asked Burns if he really wanted KKK to take over Russia.
He has a wicked sense of humor for being a Russian, always a humorous barb awaiting.
Being Naryshkin I caught on to one of his offhand remarks, "It is time for Russia to return to its Mother". Not that I understand it, but it was said in a way that has importance coming from him.
Ukraine
The most notevorthy on the battlefront is that Ukraine has crossed a river to get in behind Kreminna.
This is great news, because this means that the winter offensive has started, and that Ukraine can develop deeper attacks in Luhansk.
I will here lament a bit on bridging.
Everyone and the cat is impressed with the huge bridging machines being used.
But, what only military people understand is that a bunch of engineers and soldiers to guard them had to swim across a freezing river in the middle of winter to prepare the ground on the other side, most likely in a hail of bullets.
It is something you volonteer for even in peace time.
It is the height of being uncomfy and at risk of death, still in peace time.
In Ukraine it is war.
I just wanted you guys to understand what bridging entails beyond the nice clips of unfolding bridging machines that end up on the news clip.
It is telling how many Ukrainian volunteers do it, and how fast they can do it, and how often.
Brave buggers."
"In the basement under the Presidential palace Zelenskyy is sitting with a heavy head.
He needs modern tanks and modern attack aircraft.
Problem is that all of NATOs big weapons producers say that they will not deliver until someone else delivers.
US said No.
Germany said Nein.
France said Je suis un saloupe de fromage.
UK said Attaboy.
It is looking dark and his head is heavy, soon the momentum of his army will start to drop. He needs those new weapon systems latest summer. And the only ones who could deliver that fast has not accepted his plea.
In his darkest hour an aide de camp comes in and tell him that there is a negotiator arrived.
A glimmer of hope shines in his tired eyes and he ask them to send in the negotiator.
In walks a man with an eggbeater in one hand and and a terrified turkey under the other, and for some reason a crayfish is peaking up from his apron, the white fluffly hat is rakishly sitting on the side, and the moustache is enormous.
Before Zelenskyy has time to ask what is going on the visitor starts talking.
"Börk börk!
Herdy dur flerty flööpin. I shmer der flömpty. Yer shööpin flerpty dur.
Bövövnä näd Möskvöyä, bööm!"
And out walks the man and the door is closed.
Zelenskyy is bewildered.
In the corner of his eye he sees tears of joy in the eye of his aide de camp who comes from Gammelsvenskby in Donetsk, one of the last places where Chefish is still spoken.
He asks what was said?
He said that we can buy and EU pays for 80 Jas-39 C/D and 80 Leapard 2 Block D, plus 24 more artillery pieces, 80 Riverine combat boat 90, and 80 Combat Vehicle 90...
At this point the sound of a President fainting with joy was heard in the presidential palace.
Because a major western arms producing power had just gone in first, and the others would have to follow.
And that is how the Swedish Chef makes his living when he is not cooking the dinner at the Nobel Award.
Now, imagine the sounds coming out of the EU when they realised that they will be shafted with footing the bill of enough weapons to arm a smaller nation, and to make a kickass airforce.
To be delivered during spring for the spring offensive, if needed.
In reality it was the Swedish Defence minister signing the deal, but he is such a ridiculous twerp that I do not give him any credit, so all hail the Swedish Chef instead.
Herdy dur flerty indeed!
Putin
The pundits are waxing about Putin getting ready to flee to either Central African Republic, Argentina or Venezuela.
This is obviously a lot of horseradish.
The two latter would just give the Ukrainian special forces his adress and tell them to come and pick him up.
And nobody with two cents in his brain would ever flee with his billions to CAR. He would just be promptly robbed and killed by the mad dictator there.
No, it will either be Iran, Turkey, or to Saudi Arabia.
My bet is on the latter.
Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome
This is how to best describe Russian politics right now.
Kadyrov is now arresting SOBR Police Officers. They are the federal police SWAT Team from Moscow.
This comes after a trumped up charge against one of them, a pure false flag attack.
He is sending the SOBRs (that have not yet fled back to Russia) directly to the frontline.
Basically he has said sod it and taken the first step of carving out his own country.
Out in the fringes of Chechnya there have been fights between SOBR troops and anti-kadyrovites on one side and Kadyrovites on the other.
Moscow is doing jack all about it, a sign of how far from reality they have fallen.
The most dangerous man in Russia is breaking away, and they are doing nothing.
Heck knows if they will even respond if he starts to grab adjacent parts with nuclear bases.
And the Cucumber (Girkin, or whatever) is sitting in Moscow belting out video after video that now has a cult following of more than 10 million Russians.
And once more nothing is done. No arrest, no protests, no nothing.
Instead they sent forth a drunk Medvedev, but he didn't have anything useful to say either.
This will not have gone unnoticed among the big league players, and also among mid-leaguers.
If the goon-squad is openly going for it now, it is time for them to make their moves.
Whoever of them can get one of the 3 powers in Russia to sign up behind his banner will immediately be at the forefront.
Patrushev is still banking on Medvedev. But he seems to have rather big personal problems right now, and does not seem to have the best contact with reality to be honest.
And also, both Patrushev and Medvedev are seen as tainted goods due to being Putinites through and through.
The military is divided. With rumours of Gerasimov being on the way out they have an internal power struggle.
And nobody in the military respects Soyghurt any longer.
So, unless Surovikin goes out and says that he supports someone, the army is out of the competition.
Surovikin will though most likely act if Kadyrov gets out of hand, but for now he is happily killing as many Wagnerites as possible.
That leaves Naryshkin.
Currently he has the upper hand in Moscow. He has also secured western support for if and when he acts.
Presumably he has made assurances to the liking of the West. Just being a sort of informant is not enough.
And to be adamantly clear here, he is not a spy, nor a double-agent. He has always only transmitted what is suiting Naryshkin, but it has always been good info even though limited in scope.
Problem for Naryshkin is that he has no Politico under his wings.
KGB has never been allowed to befriend the political caste, so he is starting behind the others on this.
It has been suggested to him that he would be currying his own favour with the West if he went and grabed one of the opposition leaders out of jail and made him the "peoples" champion, or invited in one from abroad of renown.
It was also hinted that the West would not miss Navalny if he had him bumped off in the process.
It was suggested that he should pick from Kasyanov, Kara-Murza or Kasparov.
He then lifted an eyebrow and asked Burns if he really wanted KKK to take over Russia.
He has a wicked sense of humor for being a Russian, always a humorous barb awaiting.
Being Naryshkin I caught on to one of his offhand remarks, "It is time for Russia to return to its Mother". Not that I understand it, but it was said in a way that has importance coming from him.
Ukraine
The most notevorthy on the battlefront is that Ukraine has crossed a river to get in behind Kreminna.
This is great news, because this means that the winter offensive has started, and that Ukraine can develop deeper attacks in Luhansk.
I will here lament a bit on bridging.
Everyone and the cat is impressed with the huge bridging machines being used.
But, what only military people understand is that a bunch of engineers and soldiers to guard them had to swim across a freezing river in the middle of winter to prepare the ground on the other side, most likely in a hail of bullets.
It is something you volonteer for even in peace time.
It is the height of being uncomfy and at risk of death, still in peace time.
In Ukraine it is war.
I just wanted you guys to understand what bridging entails beyond the nice clips of unfolding bridging machines that end up on the news clip.
It is telling how many Ukrainian volunteers do it, and how fast they can do it, and how often.
Brave buggers."
swordtrombonefish
Well-known member
Russia's Putin scraps trademark year-end news conference
No reason is given, but there is growing unease among Russians over President Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
www.bbc.co.uk
johnsmithsno2
Well-known member
Pretty much all opinion (about China) this one. But some interesting news snippets that had passed me by.
Our man was out in the field all day yesterday and has My Sharona, so Lord knows where he found the time/energy to write this.
"The problem with playing the strongman game is that as soon as you are not able to play strongly you will seem weak.
Democracies do not really have that problem, they are sort of expected to be softer in the beginning and to try talking their way out of problems, but for a dictator there is just one answer.
To punch the living daylights out of any opposition.
And if that is not possible, punch someone else around them.
Russia used to be masters at that, argue with NATO and then go and give someone else a bloody nose as a warning to NATO.
But, this time they went to far with their threats to NATO and the West, so there was an imperative to help defend Ukraine as Russia tried to therapeutically beat them up.
I know, I sound cold here.
I am just trying to describe something here.
The top dog democracies tend to be faster to hitting at any threats to their power than lower rung democracies. Not rung as democratic level, rung as in hard power.
China
Let us now talk about the erstwhile second power of the planet, and the prospective future first power, China.
Well, at least in their own eyes.
I have other ideas really who is the real second power, and even third power, and also which countries will become the fourth power.
If we go on Hardpower the list is currently US, EU, China, India.
If we go on Softpower the list is changing a bit, EU, US, India and China.
Russia used to be number 3 on hardpower and number 4 on Softpower after China, with back then India as number 5 on Softpower and Hardpower.
On most things the US and the EU are working towards common goals, but like to siblings they now and then argue obscure points in life. But, if the **** hits the fan any other power would be up against both.
How powerful are the pair? Together they are at least twice as strong as the rest of the Globe put together.
The loser of the last year is obviously Russia, even counting them in any list today is just knee-jerk reflexes.
The only thing they have are nukes, and not even that for long.
The wheels are set in motion to defang them for a very very long time, they are no longer seen as worthy of having a large stash of nukes.
India is the clear winner.
It has shown itself to be a greater hardpower than expected, I will get back to this soon.
And as a neutral player it has now firmly taken the reigns on being the central neutral softpower.
In some aspects they fell into the old Swedish Neutral Softpower that we voided, plus their own considerable softpower.
India is really becoming interesting as a player.
Xi's Di-Lemma
Problem for Xi is that he has made the gravest error a strongman dictator can ever do.
And that is having a lack of testicular fortitude.
He has only managed to be strong inwards, by increased repression, and by removing inside political threats.
His Covid policy failed, and unlike Deng and Mao he did not use ultra-violence to strike down the immense protests in China. He was to soft to send in the tanks, so instead he folded and blamed local governors for everything.
Obviously everyone noticed, both inside and outside of China, that he did not crack down.
It also did not really make a huge difference on the protests, they are still ongoing.
He has also ****ed up the economy, thusly breaking the deal between CCP and the citizens. You obey, instead you get more tosh in your wallet. Carrot and stick if you will.
This has also been noticed.
But, let us talk about hardpower now.
China is supposed to be a budding superpower.
Even in it's weakened state nobody is giving Russia a bloodied nose for any other reason than Ukraine. Note the lack of other countries settling scores.
Why? Because everyone knows that Russia would do whatever they can to punch back as hard as possible, and even if they fail now they would be back at a later date settling the bill. Because Russia has always done that, so on this they are credible even in their current watered down state.
China has rapidly failed 3 times to respond against external losses in a single week.
In the general media flood it was missed that China lost control of 5 Island in the China Sea to no less than 3 different countries.
China has been pushing hard for Island domination here for two decades, but at first push they just went home without firing a single bullet.
Also, China forgot to maintain their newly built island fortresses, so they are sinking.
Huge hardpower loss that everyone missed.
India decided that the Arunachal Pradesh border dispute should be settled and attacked China in some rather major clashes.
After bloodying up the Chinese and pushing a bit forward the Indians called up the Chinese commanders and forced them to accept a seizefire.
Note that it was India that attacked, and India that got the seizefire on their side.
The entire conflict has gone like this, India in the driver seat, China getting stung.
And on top of that the Taliban felt that it was a good idea to blow up a Chinese compound in Kabul.
Ostensibly the Chinese was there to help the Taliban building up the country, so it is quite telling that the Taliban attacked them.
If anything the Taliban in specific, and Afghans in general, have been good at playing the strongman attack anything that moves game.
So, how have 3 real superpowers in history dealt with this?
Well, the English sent in troops to squash them. This did not work, but the Afghans left them fairly alone after that having learned that the English will fight back.
Strongmen tend to respect getting attacked.
Russia was over the border with an army so fast that the Taliban are still feeling the breeze under their skirts.
Once again the Taliban won in the end, but they learned that any stupidity would be met with force. So, they left the Soviet Union and later the Russians alone.
US? Same thing... Note how well behaved the Taliban are to the west now? They do not want the West back again, even though they won in the end.
So, when China was attacked one would have assumed a Chinese army to meander in and deal with it. At least an English style in and out affair. Nothing, not even harsh words.
If we do not talk about it, it does not exist.
The Taliban noticed, and they will now push forward their positions.
Expect terror-acts in China, or even aid in armed Uigur uprising inside of China.
So, let us compare Xi with Deng, Mao and the other Chinese leaders.
Invade into Korea to fight directly with the US. Check.
Send an army into India. Check.
Attack the Soviet Union. Check.
Belt the living Schnabel out of any neighbour that is out of turn. Check.
Xi, smile like a wellwishing panda in a menacing fashion. Talk the talk, but not walk the walk. Check.
If you in a single week chicken out of 3 different wars, you have lost any respect you had and you will be seen as a pushover papertiger.
And he would not have even needed to risk a full on war.
A new division to Indian border and a couple of artillery barrages, and a new seize fire instigated by China this time. No war as such.
Sending a few warships and planted back the flags on the islands. No war.
A dozen or so cruise missiles over Kabul. No war.
All of it would have been seen as a measured, but strong response worthy of a budding superpower.
He did not even have to go to the excesses of his predecessors, that would have been enough.
Now he has put China in a very tough spot, and if he ever find his testicles he will have to go much much further as a response.
I do not think Xi will survive this for long.
China will get rid of him in the next few years.
As a final note.
China did not in any way go against the West in regards of Russia. They talked Russia friendly, but they walked like directed by the West.
I am starting to suspect that Xi was afraid of both parties, but decided that of the two West is the bigger bully and that he did not want a wedgie.
I do not any longer think China under Xi will be a real threat against Taiwan due to him being a weakling."
Our man was out in the field all day yesterday and has My Sharona, so Lord knows where he found the time/energy to write this.
"The problem with playing the strongman game is that as soon as you are not able to play strongly you will seem weak.
Democracies do not really have that problem, they are sort of expected to be softer in the beginning and to try talking their way out of problems, but for a dictator there is just one answer.
To punch the living daylights out of any opposition.
And if that is not possible, punch someone else around them.
Russia used to be masters at that, argue with NATO and then go and give someone else a bloody nose as a warning to NATO.
But, this time they went to far with their threats to NATO and the West, so there was an imperative to help defend Ukraine as Russia tried to therapeutically beat them up.
I know, I sound cold here.
I am just trying to describe something here.
The top dog democracies tend to be faster to hitting at any threats to their power than lower rung democracies. Not rung as democratic level, rung as in hard power.
China
Let us now talk about the erstwhile second power of the planet, and the prospective future first power, China.
Well, at least in their own eyes.
I have other ideas really who is the real second power, and even third power, and also which countries will become the fourth power.
If we go on Hardpower the list is currently US, EU, China, India.
If we go on Softpower the list is changing a bit, EU, US, India and China.
Russia used to be number 3 on hardpower and number 4 on Softpower after China, with back then India as number 5 on Softpower and Hardpower.
On most things the US and the EU are working towards common goals, but like to siblings they now and then argue obscure points in life. But, if the **** hits the fan any other power would be up against both.
How powerful are the pair? Together they are at least twice as strong as the rest of the Globe put together.
The loser of the last year is obviously Russia, even counting them in any list today is just knee-jerk reflexes.
The only thing they have are nukes, and not even that for long.
The wheels are set in motion to defang them for a very very long time, they are no longer seen as worthy of having a large stash of nukes.
India is the clear winner.
It has shown itself to be a greater hardpower than expected, I will get back to this soon.
And as a neutral player it has now firmly taken the reigns on being the central neutral softpower.
In some aspects they fell into the old Swedish Neutral Softpower that we voided, plus their own considerable softpower.
India is really becoming interesting as a player.
Xi's Di-Lemma
Problem for Xi is that he has made the gravest error a strongman dictator can ever do.
And that is having a lack of testicular fortitude.
He has only managed to be strong inwards, by increased repression, and by removing inside political threats.
His Covid policy failed, and unlike Deng and Mao he did not use ultra-violence to strike down the immense protests in China. He was to soft to send in the tanks, so instead he folded and blamed local governors for everything.
Obviously everyone noticed, both inside and outside of China, that he did not crack down.
It also did not really make a huge difference on the protests, they are still ongoing.
He has also ****ed up the economy, thusly breaking the deal between CCP and the citizens. You obey, instead you get more tosh in your wallet. Carrot and stick if you will.
This has also been noticed.
But, let us talk about hardpower now.
China is supposed to be a budding superpower.
Even in it's weakened state nobody is giving Russia a bloodied nose for any other reason than Ukraine. Note the lack of other countries settling scores.
Why? Because everyone knows that Russia would do whatever they can to punch back as hard as possible, and even if they fail now they would be back at a later date settling the bill. Because Russia has always done that, so on this they are credible even in their current watered down state.
China has rapidly failed 3 times to respond against external losses in a single week.
In the general media flood it was missed that China lost control of 5 Island in the China Sea to no less than 3 different countries.
China has been pushing hard for Island domination here for two decades, but at first push they just went home without firing a single bullet.
Also, China forgot to maintain their newly built island fortresses, so they are sinking.
Huge hardpower loss that everyone missed.
India decided that the Arunachal Pradesh border dispute should be settled and attacked China in some rather major clashes.
After bloodying up the Chinese and pushing a bit forward the Indians called up the Chinese commanders and forced them to accept a seizefire.
Note that it was India that attacked, and India that got the seizefire on their side.
The entire conflict has gone like this, India in the driver seat, China getting stung.
And on top of that the Taliban felt that it was a good idea to blow up a Chinese compound in Kabul.
Ostensibly the Chinese was there to help the Taliban building up the country, so it is quite telling that the Taliban attacked them.
If anything the Taliban in specific, and Afghans in general, have been good at playing the strongman attack anything that moves game.
So, how have 3 real superpowers in history dealt with this?
Well, the English sent in troops to squash them. This did not work, but the Afghans left them fairly alone after that having learned that the English will fight back.
Strongmen tend to respect getting attacked.
Russia was over the border with an army so fast that the Taliban are still feeling the breeze under their skirts.
Once again the Taliban won in the end, but they learned that any stupidity would be met with force. So, they left the Soviet Union and later the Russians alone.
US? Same thing... Note how well behaved the Taliban are to the west now? They do not want the West back again, even though they won in the end.
So, when China was attacked one would have assumed a Chinese army to meander in and deal with it. At least an English style in and out affair. Nothing, not even harsh words.
If we do not talk about it, it does not exist.
The Taliban noticed, and they will now push forward their positions.
Expect terror-acts in China, or even aid in armed Uigur uprising inside of China.
So, let us compare Xi with Deng, Mao and the other Chinese leaders.
Invade into Korea to fight directly with the US. Check.
Send an army into India. Check.
Attack the Soviet Union. Check.
Belt the living Schnabel out of any neighbour that is out of turn. Check.
Xi, smile like a wellwishing panda in a menacing fashion. Talk the talk, but not walk the walk. Check.
If you in a single week chicken out of 3 different wars, you have lost any respect you had and you will be seen as a pushover papertiger.
And he would not have even needed to risk a full on war.
A new division to Indian border and a couple of artillery barrages, and a new seize fire instigated by China this time. No war as such.
Sending a few warships and planted back the flags on the islands. No war.
A dozen or so cruise missiles over Kabul. No war.
All of it would have been seen as a measured, but strong response worthy of a budding superpower.
He did not even have to go to the excesses of his predecessors, that would have been enough.
Now he has put China in a very tough spot, and if he ever find his testicles he will have to go much much further as a response.
I do not think Xi will survive this for long.
China will get rid of him in the next few years.
As a final note.
China did not in any way go against the West in regards of Russia. They talked Russia friendly, but they walked like directed by the West.
I am starting to suspect that Xi was afraid of both parties, but decided that of the two West is the bigger bully and that he did not want a wedgie.
I do not any longer think China under Xi will be a real threat against Taiwan due to him being a weakling."
BandH
Member
I assumed corona virus, might be wrong.