Dictator's army are said to be ready to lose Kherson , Ukraine
In Bakhmut , Donetsk, Ukraine they're failing miserably - been pushed backwards
Road between Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk, Ukraine impassable as defenders have it in their crosshairs - so they can't supply from the north
Explosions in Sevastopol in Crimea, Ukraine mean damage to one of the ships
Further info on this. The latter part is obviously "informed opinion".
"
Let us take a look while we await news about why Putins airplane while flying to Sochi decided instead to fly out over the Black Sea, fly up to a US AWACS named FORTE10 and say hello, prior to doing a rapid curve around and hightailing it straight back to Moscow.
FORTE10 flew a loop well outside it's normal flight pattern towards Sochi, so the airplanes was at the closest 500 meters from each other.
This is a new level of insanity even for the Russians.
One idea is that Putin tried to flee Russia, or that he died on the flight and that the closeby flight was relaying a message about it. Or, that it somehow was a prearanged way of relaying info.
In other words, no clue what so ever, and the Muricans are as of yet not talking about it.
Nobody has missed that Sevastopol Navy Yard was hit causing an old frigate to be fairly destroyed, and a new robot frigatte to have it's superstructure fairly removed. There was also an oil storage and a weapons storage destroyed in the port.
Much teeth gnashing is going on in Russia over this.
Luhansk
In Luhansk there is slow, small, but steady progress in some area. The main importance is though that the Svatove/Kreminna line is now cut, so Russian logistics is slowed down. The commander here is still trying tactical advances on a daily basis, but it is not a big problem for the Ukrainians, they just push them back and advance a bit.
At least this one is trying the concept of manouvre warfare out.
Bakhmut
Here the Russians are unhappy about having been pushed back, so they are stepping up their first world war style attacks. We now know why they are doing it, they do not have the mechanical equipment left to even try out a tactical manouvre attack, not that they did that while having their equipment.
The Command here is lacking in the brain department at an astounding level, but what else can one expect from Prigozhin and Kadyrov.
Zhaporizhzhia/Melitopol Front
Ukraine is making small but significant advances now, just a handfull of villages, but it is telling that they now both can do it, and that the Russians can't hold them back.
Having less than 500 operational tanks in all of Ukraine is really starting to bite the Russians in the ****.
Kherson
Ukrainians are quiet, but they are cheerful so we suspect that things are slowly moving forward.
One tidbit was dropped at least, in the last month they have captured, or Russians surrendered, at a whopping rate. 3000 Russians from Kherson are now happily eating Ukrainian borstj, half of them do not want to go back to Russia for some reason.
Equipment
In the beginning Ukraine got mostly eighties stuff from almost surplus stores around Europe and the US.
As that started to run out they got a bit of nineties tech, but from there things jumped directly into 20s stuff.
Panzerhaubitze's, Krabs, Gungnirs, brand new GMLRS systems, New and improved missiles, NASAMS new batch (not even the US have them yet), IRIS-T (not even German have those), Talons, Falcons, Hawks... all new stuff.
And now the Germans are openly talking about Leopard II, block 7s... And Abrams Sep 3s.
At the same time more and more NATO standard handguns are being sent.
Ukraine is solidly moving up the ladder and will somewhere during the spring become the most modern army on the planet based on average equipment age.
More importantly, they will at that time be fully NATO compatible, NATO is building a formidable future member.
At the same time Russia is devolving and are now solidly in the fifties on average weapons construction age.
In most aspects now Ukraine has a 2:1 advantage on numbers of heavy equipment, what is now lacking is modern tanks and airplanes, and that is now in the pipeline. It will though take time. Russia only has an advantage in airplane and helicopter numbers, but that is negated due to the simply staggering power of the Ukrainian Air Defence Network (that is getting better by the week now).
On soldiers there is also a 2:1 advantage now to Ukraine.
In real firepower (equipment and people) the advantage is now 4:1... and that explains the steady progress being made.
I would say that all that is left for the Russians are their nukes, but even their own propagandists are starting to realise that the same amount of theft and corruption has happened there, in other words, most of Russias nukes are believed to be junk. And Russia may need them for other things rather soon.
China
The leadership of China has by now quietly dropped their plans on Taiwan.
They have realised that the price of taking it would be to monstrous even by Chinese standards of willingness to absorb losses.
Also, the Chinese economy is in ruins. About 60 percent of it remains, and that is by far not enough to take on the western powers now that they are reunited and standing strong.
Problem is though that Xi Jinping is desperate for a win to cover up his bungling of the economy, and to squash the anger over the eternal closedowns.
And the time honoured way forward for troubled dictators is as per always to munch on other countries.
The CDF have for the last 9 months moved units towards the border to Russia and Mongolia. No big movements, but a unit here and there. Over time this has led to half a million men at the border. They have though moved enough equipment for 1 million men.
Same goes for the Navy, ships have quietly been moved Northwards, not more than a port or two each, but South China Sea is fairly empty now from Chinese navy, only their most essential water patrols are there.
This has ramped up over the last couple of weeks, but still it is done quietly and in an unassuming manner, easy to miss for a neighbour at war, easy to spot for anyone with lots of satelites.
China has always been a careful player, ready to wait decades if not centuries for a decissive win. So, seeing this we think this is the moment of weakness China has been waiting for in the 100 year long war with Russia. And yes, that is how China is viewing Russia.
We are fairly certain that China will try taking back the parts it has lost in the last 100 years to Russia, or even more. We at least believe that Manchuria and Mongolia will be reintegrated with China.
Our estimate is that China is careful, a wounded bear is after all dangerous. And here we are talking about a nuclear clawed bear.
So, as long as the Russian central government is in power, and there is not internal strife and turmoil, China will hold off attacking. But as soon as internal fighting breaks out China will attack.
The percentages for this scenario playing out is surprisingly high in favour of a Chinese attack. And that will obviously have tremendous consequences for Russia, but also for the West.
First of all, I think China is underestimating what levels of insanity Russia is able to do if attacked. It would almost certainly unite all of Russia into a fever frenzied country willing to endure almost anything to defend themselves. Lack of equipment will help the Chinese, but the Russians would be able to haul in millians in a war defending the motherland, even the Refuseniks that left Russia would be inclined to go back home.
The West on the other hand can't afford Russia loosing large chunks, because that would solve China's resource problems and making China almost untouchable.
Conclusion
War is insanity.
If China will attack Russia the West would be forced to somehow help them out, at least if there is someone even remotely palatable in command in Russia at that point. Palatable should be read as anything that is above Putin in moral fibre, and that says very little in Russia. Heck, we made deals with Stalin...
At least on paper Russia is a far stronger power than China on nukes alone, and this has importance for the West. We fear more Russian nukes than Chinese. So sending troops, or at least gear, to Russia is definitely not out of the question.
Because in the greater scheme of things, we rather deal with Russia than having to succumb to the yoke of Jinping.
Obviously a war between Russia and China would be nuclear from the getgo, this is Russian doctrine since the days of Stalin. There is just no way that Russia can hold back a horde of chinese with conventional weapons, not even on the height of the Soviet power.
Now, as being a severely weakened Russia that has squandered 70 percent of its battle strength in Ukraine, it will have to start nuking from the first hour trying to create a nuclear ditch between Russia and China. And China would have to respond quickly at that point.
This in turn would force Russia to start leveling big cities in China, and that would lead to a return attack in kind.
Russia has the clear advantage, better spread of its population, and more nukes. China has a highly concentrated population and will take every blow where it hurts, even the initial lob on the border.
West not going in directly in the war in Ukraine had a damn good reason after all.
What scares us is that Jinping does not seem to grasp this at all. He seems quite willing to have a couple of hundred million dead citizens in return of more natural resources, in the long run for China this is the better option. It may take 100 years before China is back in the game fully, but at that point it will be as an insurmountable power able to pull the entire world into the darkness.
I think somewhere in his deranged mine Putin was aware of this, and this is why he never moved the nukes into a western stance. He also knew that he could never win a nuclear war against the US. "
