Missive (from last night ... things have moved on even since then).
"Moscow is still safe
If your main general states that it is probably time to worry. This pearl of wisdom came from General Apti Alaudinov, sayer of many wise words of stupendousness and mediocrity. He claimed that losing Kursk and Bilhorod was not a problem, because “Moscow is still safe”.
If I was a Ivan the Muscovite I would start looking for a dacha in Khabarovsk when hearing such reassuring words from someone so Awesome Generalissimo as Apti Alaudinov. We all know that the more things have gone to ****, the perkier and optimistic he will be.
Officially Russians are now heroically advancing backwards to more advantageous position. In other words, they are attempting strategic retreats to what should be pre-constructed fortifications and trench lines infront of villages with good logistics.
Reality is somewhat less glorious. They are legging it as fast as they can on their crutches, hauling their newly issued donkeys with them. So, let us go through where the main actions are now.
In the East of Sudzha there is a gaping hole in the Russian lines 5km wide East and Southeast of the village of Ulanok. And on the Western side there is 16km long breach going from Viktorovka up to Kruglen’koe.
How did this happen? As I mentioned yesterday, Tank Girl has meticulously exploited Russia’s lack of ammunition and troops, and the lines started to crumble 4 days ago. In the last 36 hours she stepped on the gas pedal and started to push through and around 100km3 has been liberated in 4 days, with the majority taken in the last 36 hours.
Officially it was the Russian troops that was supposed to hold in Kursk, or preferably even advance there, but in reality the Russian troops was spent and consisted of wounded soldiers pressed back into service or consisted of the particularly useless Akhmat Brigade.
In reality it was the North Koreans that stood for the pushing of Ukrainian lines, and the holding of Russian lines. Well, until the moment they stated that things was not working at left it all to the Russian while they stepped back to heal, reconstitute units, and figure out how the hell you stop a robot army from slaughtering you.
We should though remember that behind the lines there are still 6 000 North Korean soldiers, and at some point they might return to the frontlines. But, for now they do not seem inclined to do so.
With Russia short on shells and ammo for their rifles, the general idea was that the North Korean super artillery would help hold the lines and support the Russian units. It should also be noted that even if Russia would have had shells for their artillery, they barely have any artillery systems left after months of relentless target practice by Olga’s counter-batter artillery and heave drone usage.
And as you know, even the North Korean artillery did not stand up to the withering counter- battery fire of very modern Western howitzer’s aided by counter-battery radars, and droves of hunter-killer drones targeting them.
With around 60 percent of the 192 pieces that was sent in the artillery division gone, North Korea said, “good luck” and withdrew them. No point in offering them up for slaughter after North Korea figured out that they are indeed yesterday’s news.
In a way it is Russia that created this crisis. They had for a long time diverted fresh units that had been formed to Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, to furnish the meatgrinders there with fresh meat.
The ever-loving Akhmat Brigade felt that it was beneath them to do any actual fighting, so they emptied out hospitals of wounded to do the fighting. If they could hobble on crutches, off to the front with them.
And as per usual the fine lads of the Akhmat Brigade under the brave leadership of General Apti Alaudinov raped, tortured, or shot those who didn’t see the wisdom of the state of affairs. Often in combinations of said motivational actions, sometimes they even accidentally shot them and then raped them before applying the torture.
Not having any ammunition also helped to improve the morale of the wounded troops that was lovingly coaxed forth. But the drop was probably when they instead of getting trucks and cars to do their frontline logistics with, and instead got issued donkeys, something broke and they started to hobble away from their trenches in ever larger groups.
Somehow they decided that it was better to take their chances with the Akhmats instead of Ukrainians. Seeing their own soldiers come hobbling infront of advancing Ukrainians made the Akhmats decide to go and fight some bushes somewhere else.
Why?
How come a country that de facto has been invaded doesn’t defend their territory is a good guess. But we can state that Russia created this problem almost all on their own.
Remember that the entire idea of the Kursk venture was to draw out forces from the areas where Russia is advancing, and that most pressing was the Pokrovsk axis. The secondary reason was to grab a bargaining chip, if Ukraine could hold on to parts of Kursk.
We all now know that Russia took one look at Kursk, and said sod it, and continued to send the bulk of reinforcements to the active offensives that they had running. They also sent the bulk of consumables in those directions, and most of the equipment.
In fact, they starved the literal **** out of their Kursk units. The solution for Russia was to send North Koreans to defend their own country, while they concentrated on taking Ukrainian land. Something that only worked for a while.
I have rambled enough about Russia not being able to recruit enough soldiers. And with Ukraine now transferring in 50 000 fresh troops, the frontline ratio is worsening rapidly. And at that point continuing senseless meatwaves to take fields, tree lines and a small village or two per month… it is not overly bright and is just making things worse in the end for Russia.
Obviously this is a political decision. Russia’s generals are generally crap, but even they know that this is not sustainable, nor a good idea. But, with Putin and his ilk ordering them to push ever onwards into the great blue yonder, they have no choice.
What now?
Russia now has a choice, unless of course Kim Yo-jong decides to up the number of troops sent from North Korea. So far we see no signals that this is happening in the nearby future. For her the idea was most likely to give her troops experience from the modern battlefield and then take that back and learn what can be learned and adapt how they operate.
And with North Korea being an artillery heavy country, she has probably seen all she needs to see in regards of how good her “super artillery” really is. Sending more troops and artillery will not give her any more information, it will just eat into her reserves.
After all, she does not have endless resources. Russia almost had that and just look where that got them. I would love to be a fly on the wall and see what their conclusions will be, and what changes she will instigate.
We should always remember that she might have a truly warped and evil mind, but she is far from stupid. She will undoubtedly spend the coming years hatching plans for how to make up for the deficiencies her troops had visavi their Ukrainian counterparts.
So, let us for now rule out any North Korean Hail Mary cards. What can Russia do? They have 3 military options and 1 diplomatic one. So, let us go through them.
Let us begin from the point where Apti Alaudinov left off. Remember that he said that Kursk and Bilhorod was not important. There is a clear possibility that he said to much, and that this is the general consensus in Russia, and that this originates with Putin.
In this literalist scenario Russia will chose to temporarily lose large areas of Russian territory to secure as much Ukrainian territory as possible. Presumably their dream is to take all of Donbas at least.
Another option is that they hope that they will keep all of their ill-gotten gains, and that Ukraine somehow will be forced to hand back Kursk and Bilhorod to Russia in a peace deal. This is though not going to happen.
Problem with this is that if your start to lose large areas those tend to multiply with a little bit of time, and that Moscow all of a sudden is not so safe.
Militarily the correct option would be to lock down all offensives and start to divert as much resources as possible to Kursk to either secure the current frontline, or drive Ukraine out.
And from a national standpoint that would obviously be that best option. There’s after all the clear risk that Ukraine will be able to maul their way rapidly onwards when the ground firms up towards the summer. And with the current battle fortunes for Russia, it is not even certain at that point that Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk are going backwards too.
We should here not that there are basically no troops between where TG stands now and Moscow if she truly manages to break through. All she needs is one good highway, and she would be at the outskirts of a highly undefended Moscow in about 18 hours, totally unhindered.
This would though most likely force Russia’s hand and we would all know if they have any functioning nukes. They would at that point not nuke Ukraine, but they would both practically and doctrinally be forced to bomb her forces as they advance inside of Russia.
Obviously Ukraine is aware of this and will probably instead opt for nibbling of parts that is not on the road towards Moscow, at least initially.
So, the third option is the least likely to happen. Is the second option viable now? If Russia had halted their offensive operations and diverted enough resources they would most likely have been able at that point to retake Kursk, but with Ukraine being free to make minor gains.
Now? Not likely, they could probably freeze down Kursk but not retake it. And there is now a high probability that Ukraine would be able to crack through inside of Ukraine at that point. Russia just do not any longer have the resources for what they need to do.
We shall see what happens, question now is more when Russia will break, and if Ukraine will have the time to do that. There will after all most likely be peace negotiations fairly soon. ."
Oh, and
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lhl6rys2xk26
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english.nv.ua
www.forbes.com
