The end?

So, most of you will have notice a change this week. Well, maybe a few changes. But the most notable one is that Russia's airforce is suddenly finding that it no longer has "superiority". What is worse for them is that they now know for sure that their jets are no match for the "new stuff" flying about, not just over Ukraine, but intruding into Russian air space.

What is doing the damage? Well, not F16s (yet) apparently.
It's just 16 fighter/bombers ... 8 from Sweden and 8 from France. So far I believe they have taken out 7 Russian planes.... and a ship or two. It will be interesting to see what impact this has upon Russia's activities in the skies.

Expect lots more stuff to go boom in the coming days.
 
Over 300 drones and missiles have struck targets all over Russia in the last 18 hours.... and it continues. Including Moscow. Russians are suddenly feeling what it is like to live with constant air raid sirens ... and no power and no heat. It will continue for 6 more hours.
A S300 sent to intercept landed in a busy Belgorod street, killing 10 Russian civilians.

I should add that most the UAF targets are military installations and factories producing stuff for the Russian military.
Also power infrastructure and bridges.
 
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Reading the news, it's all incoming from Russia at the moment. The Ukrainians are been ground gown it is so depressing reading what they are being put through. Just hope the world keep supporting them.
 
Reading the news, it's all incoming from Russia at the moment. The Ukrainians are been ground gown it is so depressing reading what they are being put through. Just hope the world keep supporting them.
Just remember there is no truth in war.

What you are seeing, reading and hearing is decided by the agendas of the combatants and theit allies and to a lesser extent by the view of the observer. So when Ukraine hits targets in Moscow, Ukraine is not interested in publicising its successes to keep its capabilities close to its chest, Russia doesn't want to talk about these strikes as they represent a failure of their own defences. So it goes largely unreported. When Russia strikes Ukraine, Ukraine wants to publicise the actions of the aggressor to keep the supplies of Western weaponry flowing, Russia wants to create fear in the population and in the minds of other satellite states that might think that the Bear has no claws. The Western governments want you to hear about the attacks on Ukraine to keep public opinion behind their spending on Ukraine's requirements.
 
Reading the news, it's all incoming from Russia at the moment. The Ukrainians are been ground gown it is so depressing reading what they are being put through. Just hope the world keep supporting them.

What Muttley said.

Russia really are going for it at the moment... but they are smarting from losing aircraft and the landing ship, as well as being hit be a 350 missile and drone barrage themselves.
My mate suspects they'll take another wave of kabooms tonight as well. But the difference is that Ukraine will be working over the logistics and military capability of the Russian army/airforce...not bombing car dealerships (take that Elon) and hospitals.
 
Why are we all bothering with this?
All Putin has to do is sit tight and wait for Trump to be elected later in the year (which he'll help Trump with) then it's all over, he's won. Trump 'does a deal', Putin agrees to stop but keeps the land he's gained, new borders are drawn, Zelenskyy is beaten and slinks away exhausted, Putin promises to be a good boy, most around the world are glad it's over and hope energy prices fall. Trump & Putin bask in glory - I can see the smiling handshake photos now.
In a year or so once everything's settled down again Putin goes again and installs a pro Russia puppet govt in Kiev to keep the EU and Nato at Bay, no-one is even watching or cares.
 
Why are we all bothering with this?
All Putin has to do is sit tight and wait for Trump to be elected later in the year (which he'll help Trump with) then it's all over, he's won. Trump 'does a deal', Putin agrees to stop but keeps the land he's gained, new borders are drawn, Zelenskyy is beaten and slinks away exhausted, Putin promises to be a good boy, most around the world are glad it's over and hope energy prices fall. Trump & Putin bask in glory - I can see the smiling handshake photos now.
In a year or so once everything's settled down again Putin goes again and installs a pro Russia puppet govt in Kiev to keep the EU and Nato at Bay, no-one is even watching or cares.

Sadly that seems a realistic prospect. Personally I don’t think Trump gets the nomination but I suppose the above would be possible with any Republican candidate.
 
All Putin has to do is sit tight and wait for Trump to be elected later in the year (which he'll help Trump with) then it's all over, he's won. Trump 'does a deal'
Firstly, Trump is unlikely to win.

But, assuming he does or someone of similar "world view" wins, there is still considerable military aid coming from Europe so that would have to dry up too. But, assuming it did,, Russia cannot hold Ukraine. Even within the areas it currently occupies there are Ukrainian "partisans" operating. The war would descend into an asymmetric conflict and ultimately they would be forced to withdraw. Think US in Vietnam or Soviet Union in Afghanistan. They might be able to hold onto some areas but they do not have the military strength to suppress a country as large as Ukraine for as long as it would take.
 
Why are we all bothering with this?
Because its the right thing to do.
Hitler was appeased for far too long.
Putin is another Hitler or would be if left unchallenged. He was to restore the old USSR with all of the old boundaries including Poland, Czechslovakia, Hungary etc etc and beyond.
But more importantly we should not sig back and watch Ukranians getting slaughtered and do nothing.

People like you feed people like Putin.
 
Why are we all bothering with this?
All Putin has to do is sit tight and wait for Trump to be elected later in the year (which he'll help Trump with) then it's all over, he's won. Trump 'does a deal', Putin agrees to stop but keeps the land he's gained, new borders are drawn, Zelenskyy is beaten and slinks away exhausted, Putin promises to be a good boy, most around the world are glad it's over and hope energy prices fall. Trump & Putin bask in glory - I can see the smiling handshake photos now.
In a year or so once everything's settled down again Putin goes again and installs a pro Russia puppet govt in Kiev to keep the EU and Nato at Bay, no-one is even watching or cares

Apologies but thats a very poor take, and apologies but frankly clearly from someone who has not been bothered paying attention.

Park Trump for a moment.

Europe is now a dramatically different Ruzzian foe than it was in Jan 22. During the conflict Europe has combined provided more support than the USA militarily and in Euros of aid.

Ukraine has basically neutralised the Black Sea threat entirely with hardware and support from Europe.

The continuous appeasement of Putler within Europe has now ended and the divide between legacy Putler supporters and those who will stand up to him is best illustrated within the EU by the process for admitting Ukraine and the pariah status of Hungary who could well be on a path towards the exit door which will be interesting to see how the Hungarian population reacts to that with the current leadership.

Non Nato countries such as Sweden are already on the front foot and are quasi on the ground already. Finland has accelerated into NATO and as a result Ruzzia has even more of a frontline to worry about if it wants to take on NATO directly and historically Ruzzia in Finland does not always go well unless Ruzzia is supported materially by the west which cannot happen this time around.

We know that Europe is also ramping up with billions in forward orders for the military basics that will support Ukraine for years to come wehtehr or not the USA joins in.

As for Trump, well it is a fact that the current administration has been as much of a handbrake as a help on helping Ukraine win this "3 day war" now into its 320th+ day. the USA has been far more prescriptive on how and where its weapons can be used - European supplies not so much.

As the Darth Putin account stated Bidens plan of witholding weapons from Ukraine to force Ukraine into a deal with Putler (which he would violate) so in the end Trump can point out he lost to Putler in an election year is an odd strategy in an election year.

A Trump presidency would see barely a change from other than acceleration of European self reliance.

A be sure an awful lot of people are still watching and caring.
 
Why are we all bothering with this?
All Putin has to do is sit tight and wait for Trump to be elected later in the year (which he'll help Trump with) then it's all over, he's won. Trump 'does a deal', Putin agrees to stop but keeps the land he's gained, new borders are drawn, Zelenskyy is beaten and slinks away exhausted, Putin promises to be a good boy, most around the world are glad it's over and hope energy prices fall. Trump & Putin bask in glory - I can see the smiling handshake photos now.
In a year or so once everything's settled down again Putin goes again and installs a pro Russia puppet govt in Kiev to keep the EU and Nato at Bay, no-one is even watching or cares.
If that did happen(which I think is unlikely as a few major allies would still support Ukraine even without the USA) then the war would get a lot more dirty and ruthless from both sides, at the start of the invasion the Ukrainian people where making petrol bombs and improvised weapons to defend the country this would be magnified ten fold. If this happened and pressure was put on Ukraine to sign A peace agreement and actually did(again doubtful) then the metaphorical gloves would be off and the rules of war and the laws which govern it would not be in play from the Ukrainian perspective, the millions of people who have lost friends and family, homes and jobs would be a constant thorn in the side of the Russian occupiers. Even if all supplies to Ukraine stopped today Ukraine would be a people who are still pretty well armed(even considering the amount of rifles that must be in the country and ammo that will be in the country) and probably the most battle hardened veteran soldiers in the world right now. This would turn into guerrilla warfare and Ukraine would have a very tough, well trained and well equipped group of people fighting from the shadows.
 
Europe is more than picking up the slack of our western transatlantic superpower buddy. Ukraine are doing a fairly good job of bleeding the Russian military dry at the moment, whilst keeping their tinder dry for "things" later this year. Just 15 or so western fighter jets were enough to down 7Russian planes and blow up one key landing ship... in the space of a week. And that is before the old time F16s roll onto the scene. Not a fan of our government, but they have been at the forefront ... this week supplying 200 of the latest air to air AD/Seeker missiles.

It would be a lie to say that Ukraine wasn't suffering casualties, but they have been, on the Eastern front, in the ratio of about 1:10.
You'll hear about a Ukrainian mobilisation of 500k. These have a specific purpose. Not frontline assault troops. Join the dots.

Russia has spent tens of thousands of young men on trying to capture a few fields and villages around Avdivka and Kupyansk. They sure as hell aren't going to be rolling over the Finns or anyone else.

I don't know if anyone saw Steve Rosenberg's report last week with ordinary Russians expressing their hopes for the New Year. Very telling. They've had enough.
 
Because its the right thing to do.
Hitler was appeased for far too long.
Putin is another Hitler or would be if left unchallenged. He was to restore the old USSR with all of the old boundaries including Poland, Czechslovakia, Hungary etc etc and beyond.
But more importantly we should not sig back and watch Ukranians getting slaughtered and do nothing.

People like you feed people like Putin.
Sorry I didn’t meant bothering with the war or dire situation in Ukraine, I meant bothering with the microscopic detail day to day as if there was some imminent military breakthrough each day or as if the overly optimistic political reports were true.
The war has been in stalemate for months, there was 5-6? years of fighting in Eastern Ukraine before that, Crimea was invaded without a squeak.
My point was that it’s a big political move or major govt decision that will end this war not any tlt for tat bombing, village incursion or daily field report.
It’s an absolute tragedy, I care and I would love Putin to be crushed but it is not going to happen via this war whatever you wish for militarily.
 
Maybe Europe see that if Ukraine topples Putin then first of all Ukraine then Russia may eventually become part of Europe! Then we wouldn’t have to rely on the USA?
 
Sorry I didn’t meant bothering with the war or dire situation in Ukraine, I meant bothering with the microscopic detail day to day as if there was some imminent military breakthrough each day or as if the overly optimistic political reports were true.
The war has been in stalemate for months, there was 5-6? years of fighting in Eastern Ukraine before that, Crimea was invaded without a squeak.
My point was that it’s a big political move or major govt decision that will end this war not any tlt for tat bombing, village incursion or daily field report.
It’s an absolute tragedy, I care and I would love Putin to be crushed but it is not going to happen via this war whatever you wish for militarily.
Wrong again

In 2023 Ukraine retook 10 times more territory than the Ruzzians gained in their "advances".

Not as much as hoped for but as the West (read USA & Germany) did not provide the equipment neccessary for the type of war they were advocating the Ukrainians should carry out. At least Germany had the humility to recognise its mistake (give or take the supply of Taurus missiles), the USA not so much but at lest we hear a lot less from Jake Sullivan these days than we used to which is no bad thing.

In addition to physical territory tactically Ukraine has a foothold on the east bank of the Dnieper which is eating up Ruzzian resources trying to kick them out.

In the east, around Donestsk city Ukraine has retaken territory that has been occuppied by the Ruzzian proxies since 2014 at the same time as bleeding the Ruzzian manpower resources and depleting the Ruzzian hardware resources to a massive degree - Ruzzian museums are being raided for equipment and there was a photo of a captured Ruzzian pre revolution maxim machine gun which caused a few headlines at the time.

In 2023 the battle for the western Black sea was won by a nation with no navy.

Ruzzia was "invaded" in 2023 by other Ruzzians, and there are a couple of border Ruzzain oblasts that are looking like prime neutral demilitarised buffer territory in the near future

In the last 2 weeks without the USA withheld F16's & with barely a dozen European supplied models Ukraine has decimated the front line air superiority the Ruzzians had at massive equipment cost to Ruzzia without a Ukrainian scratch.

Again in the last 2 weeks Ruzzias ability to supply Crimea has been impacted with the Landing Ship destruction in a "safer" port in Eastern Crimea with the Kerch bridge no where near able to take up the slack.

You say t*t for tat missile attackes you would better to say Ruzzia continues to attack apartment blocks and childrens playgrounds while Ukraine takes out military and infrastructure - which is better in the long term?

You say stalemate for months, in territory where the ground looks like a sea of mud who is cannier holding and shaping a line versus bleeding manpower & equipment to retake a village of rubble because Putler wants it taken?

The future is based upon this simple fact - does the west want Ukraine to win and just as importantly Ruzzia to lose. In fact more starkly does the USA want Ukraine to win. The minute the rest of the west can establish that point either way, they can then get on with their support efforts with greater clarity including the consequences for USA self esteem.

Last winter it was all about releasing Leopards, this winter its all about releasing the Bulls and a few second hand Australian Hornets wouldnt go amiss either (but that brings us back to the USA again).
 
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