Just reading that up to late 2019 WHO advice ref pandemics was
* Test and Trace = no point
* Isolation = no point
Then we get a UK projection of 500k deaths.
Maybe we need to look at the projection rather than what we had to do as a result of it being wrong by a factor. of 10.
We got better at projections
80000 cases by Oct 15th (still nowhere near)
4000 deaths per day - using analysis 3 weeks out of date
500k projection wasn't necessarily wrong, it was one arm of a model which was massively misunderstood (like you're doing now), we never went anywhere near going down that path (which was do nothing at all). We took massive action, by locking down, social distancing, hand washing, masks etc etc. The measures worked, and worked well, but were late.
The 80k cases was a projection, it wasn't wrong, it's just being misunderstood (like you're doing now), it was based on no further action and was an estimation of what is in the population, not what we find and test as positive. This "projection" was not realised as we took and had been taking massive action, by locking down, social distancing, hand washing, masks etc etc. The measures worked, and worked well.
We might be at 80k now. Two weeks ago we were on 20k positive cases, and now have circa 360 deaths per day because of that. If IFR is near 0.45% then that's 360 deaths per day average, from 80k cases per day average (but 60k of those would be missed by testing). If we have less cases, then it's because it's more fatal, which is worse.
4000 deaths per day wasn't wrong, again, it was massively misunderstood (like you're doing now), it was based on doing nothing and for the peak, and overwhelming the NHS.
We got to 1000 deaths per day last time around, and we knew cases were doubling every 7 days I think it was. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what would have happened had we let it go on for another two weeks or 5 months before locking down.
Don't forget, the second we cross the line of exceeding NHS capacity, the deaths go through the roof, unless everyone has a ventilator or CPAP equipment in their garage.