Stop Posting the Conspiracy Rubbish

bear66

Well-known member
Hi all,

Some interesting stats out from the ONS this morning:

View attachment 9142
No doubt COVID deaths have increased over the past few months, however they seemed to have replaced other causes of death as only 8 excess deaths occurred in October compared with 2019.

Another bit of interesting COVID information is PHE recent preprint on T-cell immunity;

Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate

Interesting that acknowledgment of prior immunity to COVID-19 is present in those who have never had the virus, likely through previous exposure to other coronaviruses.

View attachment 9143
Your figures are wrong. There have been 2957 more excess deaths in October 2020 compared with the five year average in England. Every one of those weeks in 2020 had more excess deaths than the maximum figure for any of those weeks over those 5 years.

The data is in this spreadsheet
 

cliverd

Member
My figures are not wrong, they are literally lifted from the ONS.

If you read my post I stated that there has been 8 excess deaths in comparison to 2019, not the five year average.

'Every one of those weeks in 2020 had more excess deaths than the maximum figure for any of those weeks over those 5 years.' - Incorrect statement, granted huge regional variations but here's a useful graph from ONS:


Very clear from the link above that there have been a number of weeks with less excess deaths in comparison to the five year average. Granted October is slightly above the five year excess death average, but in comparison to 2019 very marginally.
 

bear66

Well-known member
My figures are not wrong, they are literally lifted from the ONS.

If you read my post I stated that there has been 8 excess deaths in comparison to 2019, not the five year average.

'Every one of those weeks in 2020 had more excess deaths than the maximum figure for any of those weeks over those 5 years.' - Incorrect statement, granted huge regional variations but here's a useful graph from ONS:


Very clear from the link above that there have been a number of weeks with less excess deaths in comparison to the five year average. Granted October is slightly above the five year excess death average, but in comparison to 2019 very marginally.
I took the maximum figure for each of the weeks in EVERY year which included 2019. So 8 is not right.

That graph you've linked proves my point, but the data is in the spreadsheet link. There have been 1769 deaths more than the maximum figure for those weeks in 5 years.

Screenshot_20201119-151536.jpg

October is weeks 40 to 44
A is 2020 deaths
B is 5 year average
C in minimum over the 5 years
D is maximum over the 5 years
 
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cliverd

Member
I took the maximum figure for each of the weeks in EVERY year which included 2019. So 8 is not right.

That graph you've linked proves my point, but the data is in the spreadsheet link. There have been 1769 deaths more than the maximum figure for any of those weeks in 5 years.
Read what I said my friend, compared to 2019 alone.

Use the ONS data from their site, much easier to read. I'll post this image once again, as you can see from the graph below there are a number of months where all cause (including covid) excess deaths are below average for the five year period, you will be able to see this where the blue line dips beneath the yellow line. The huge first wave at the start of the pandemic is clearly illustrated by a horrendous number of excess deaths, the graph below is useful to put the 'second wave' in to context with the first.

Hope this helps:

1605798963316.png
 

cliverd

Member
I took the maximum figure for each of the weeks in EVERY year which included 2019. So 8 is not right.

That graph you've linked proves my point, but the data is in the spreadsheet link. There have been 1769 deaths more than the maximum figure for those weeks in 5 years.

View attachment 9156

October is weeks 40 to 44
A is 2020 deaths
B is 5 year average
C in minimum over the 5 years
D is maximum over the 5 years
I think you've got your columns confused? Either way, it's much better to refer directly to the ONS figures rather than a slapdash spreadsheet for genuine context.
 

bear66

Well-known member
I think you've got your columns confused? Either way, it's much better to refer directly to the ONS figures rather than a slapdash spreadsheet for genuine context.
The spreadsheet is THE ONS spreadsheet.

You can also download it from here
 

cliverd

Member
That graph isn't 2019.
No the ONS figures use the five year average.

The graph is a good visual representation of the figures, very helpful to look at the context of the second wave. As mentioned when you follow the blue line (all deaths) compared to the five year average (yellow) you get a good picture of where we are at.

The graph illustrates three areas of clearly defined excess deaths:

1605799668344.png

First wave - end of march to late may (huge number of excess deaths)

Relative bump in mid August - not entirely sure the reasons but still a defined bump in the figures

Very very small bump mid October - likely due to huge increased infections in NE / NW regions (also represented in their regional excess deaths figs.)

Hope this helps.
 

bear66

Well-known member
No the ONS figures use the five year average.

The graph is a good visual representation of the figures, very helpful to look at the context of the second wave. As mentioned when you follow the blue line (all deaths) compared to the five year average (yellow) you get a good picture of where we are at.

The graph illustrates three areas of clearly defined excess deaths:

View attachment 9157

First wave - end of march to late may (huge number of excess deaths)

Relative bump in mid August - not entirely sure the reasons but still a defined bump in the figures

Very very small bump mid October - likely due to huge increased infections in NE / NW regions (also represented in their regional excess deaths figs.)

Hope this helps.
Where did you get that graph from? It has daily figures plotted on it.
 

Statto1

Well-known member
Hi all,

Some interesting stats out from the ONS this morning:

No doubt COVID deaths have increased over the past few months, however they seemed to have replaced other causes of death as only 8 excess deaths occurred in October compared with 2019.
By replaced, I'm assuming you mean replaced, eclipsed, and still rising, even on the old data, which is nowhere near as bad as where our current data will be once it's released in two weeks.

I don't know where the "8" coming from? We're 2700 over the average, but 2019 was only 1000 over the average. I'll double check my 19 numbers tomorrow, but I think they're right.

The data seems to be incomplete for the last couple of weeks, as there is no downward spike, for anything with complete data, so this may be fudging the recent numbers.

Here's an extract of the raw data, which is ONS data and population increase adjusted.

1606058406012.png

We've been back into excess deaths since September, W/E 6 Nov was about 1400 for the week and it's only going up. I literally posted all of this about two posts up from yours.
 
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Statto1

Well-known member
I took the maximum figure for each of the weeks in EVERY year which included 2019. So 8 is not right.

That graph you've linked proves my point, but the data is in the spreadsheet link. There have been 1769 deaths more than the maximum figure for those weeks in 5 years.

View attachment 9156

October is weeks 40 to 44
A is 2020 deaths
B is 5 year average
C in minimum over the 5 years
D is maximum over the 5 years
That 8 has to be an error, or they've missed a chunk or day out. Might be possible with it being a 5 week month, just means the months either side would be miles worse.
I've got all the data for all years from 2014, and population adjusted it and can't get any year or even the maximums to get near 2020.

Anyway, we're on 1400 per week excess now (well two weeks ago), now is proabbly closer to 3000 :(
 

Statto1

Well-known member
For anyone still doubting the excess deaths.

With the updated figures for today we're on 1787 excess deaths per week, for Wk 46 (week ending 13 Nov), that's 400 higher than the week before.
That's also adjusting for population increase, without adjusting for population increase it's about 1900.
Since then covid deaths have gone up and the excess line is also trending up, so we're probably heading towards 2k per week unfortunately.

1606240062501.png

1606240164660.png
 

FabioPorkpie

Well-known member
I don’t think the excess deaths argument is an actually argument anymore. The delay has caught up and there are very clearly excess deaths now.
Also, pubs like the Daily Mail have been caught out printing deliberately misleading charts to demonstrate a lack of excess deaths. That type of thing should not be finding it’s way into mainstream media.
 

FabioPorkpie

Well-known member
This is a very good article addressing some of the points Dr Yeadon raises frequently and I think anybody who has been interested by what he has to say should most definitely read it. It’s the best thing I’ve found so far, regarding his thoughts.

(I found some of his points very interesting, particularly in respect of his prediction for the course of the pandemic ie a self limiting rise further way away from the epicentre of original outbreaks with a relatively low rise at the epicentre. As I’ve said previously, it’s not black and white- you don’t have to believe ALL of the things said on one side of a discussion and NONE of the things said on the other side. You don’t have to pick a position and steadfastly stick to it and dismiss everything that doesn’t concur with what you think is correct.
Some things will be correct and somethings incorrect, on both sides.)

 

FabioPorkpie

Well-known member
And this thread is also very good and well worth a read by anyone with a curious mind who is looking at all sides of the debate -

 

Statto1

Well-known member
I don’t think the excess deaths argument is an actually argument anymore. The delay has caught up and there are very clearly excess deaths now.
Also, pubs like the Daily Mail have been caught out printing deliberately misleading charts to demonstrate a lack of excess deaths. That type of thing should not be finding it’s way into mainstream media.

It shouldn't have been an argument in the first place, there was no basis to back it up. People drawing up these graphs and charts and trying to fudge the numbers to make it appear better than it is is despicable. It's somehow even worse than the NOTW hacking dead kids phones in my opinion, and that was absolutely horrendous, but it's even worse as this no doubt ends up with more actual dead people, due to covid and sharing covid denial.

The fact loads of people have obviously bought the lies, isn't necessarily the readers fault, as it's hard to spot unless you're capable of finding the numbers, drawing up these charts and figuring out how they got their numbers. The problem is people share this bad information, that they're incapable of fact checking themselves (or even worse is they can check it, and know it's bad), social media is a massive problem for this.
 

FabioPorkpie

Well-known member
It shouldn't have been an argument in the first place, there was no basis to back it up. People drawing up these graphs and charts and trying to fudge the numbers to make it appear better than it is is despicable. It's somehow even worse than the NOTW hacking dead kids phones in my opinion, and that was absolutely horrendous, but it's even worse as this no doubt ends up with more actual dead people, due to covid and sharing covid denial.

The fact loads of people have obviously bought the lies, isn't necessarily the readers fault, as it's hard to spot unless you're capable of finding the numbers, drawing up these charts and figuring out how they got their numbers. The problem is people share this bad information, that they're incapable of fact checking themselves (or even worse is they can check it, and know it's bad), social media is a massive problem for this.

I think it’s only in the last few weeks or so that excess deaths have really clearly significantly risen above the normal 5 yr average ranges.
 
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