Steve Gibson's fmttm Q and A - Thursday

Brian Marwood said:
This dream of getting up and staying up is a poisoned chalice for all involved and almost certain to end in failure.
Click to expand...
Nonsense.
I don't think even the most ambitious Boro fan truly expects us to have promotion, then a future of PL football only.
But neither will they accept 1 season in 16 in the top flight - and we all know how Bob Mortimer succinctly put that one season.

The football "giants" of Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton have all done much better.
Other clubs have been down, but quickly returned, like Burnley, Sheff U, Leicester.
Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons.
Christ even your sorry lot on the Humber have one more season.

Of the teams who have finished above us this season, only Ipswich have not been in the PL across that time span.

One bloke (not me) at the Q&A said we Boro fans deserve better than 1 season in 16 in the PL and Gibson's immediate response was "You don't deserve anything". I thought his caustic response was quite revealing. He then went on a monologue about wage bills and his contribution versus ours as fans and the malaise of current football finances outside the PL.
He quoted rival wage bills at Leicester, Leeds, Southampton and other recently promoted PP clubs.

But what of other clubs promoted to the PL without Parachute Payments?
An owner DOES have to spend to get up.
They then DO have to both spend AND invest to stay up - and do so intelligently.
They invest in a squad. How well they invest is determined by amortisation versus Profit from sales of player registrations, plus market value of squad over book.
They spend on wages/fees.
Virtually every club who goes up has to spend and both invest and spend to stay there (Brighton the most obvious)

But the spending:
Brighton's wage bill was £40m in their promotion season year to 2017, up £13m and almost doubling. They did not spend big on buying players, but they paid them very well.
Wolves' was £51m in promotion season to 2018, up £22m. The same season Cardiff's was £48m up £19m.
Sheff U wage bill was £41m (almost doubling) and up £19m in year to 2019.
Leeds wage bill was £78m, up £32m in their promotion season to 2020
Brentford's wage bill in promotion season to 2021 was £41m, up £16m.
Forest wage bill in promotion season to 2022 was £59m up £22m.

All other clubs promoted since we were have had Parachute Payments, and much higher wage bills. The exceptions are Luton (wage bill £28m up £10m) in 2023 and most remarkably Huddersfield £22m up £9m in 2017.
Gibson strangely said our wage bill would be £22m at the Q&A, when it was £30m last season. I think perhaps he was talking players only, rather than full published wage bill. If not then how will we realistically defy financial gravity?

Steve is very defensive about his position, and the format of the Q&A as I posted, was not conducive to interaction when he didn't want it. (No criticism Rob, just a reality)
Luton and Huddersfield have defied gravity to get up, but the chance of emulating their experience is extremely slim.
Not investing (wisely) in a squad fit to stay is a surefire route back to the Championship with short term relief only via PP?

So Brian, what alternative do you see but a spend to invest model to step change status and give a good chance of gripping on?
 
Brian Marwood said:
The problem though, is that alongside this you will have a manager or Director of football who is going to spend that financial muscle on behalf of the owner in order to achieve all of the things that you have mentioned. The Championship and below is littered with clubs who have had this ambition and ultimately failed, I will name Bolton and Portsmouth as two glaring examples.

Outside of the top 5 or 6 six clubs in the Premier leage there are only two who have had a prolonged period up there and that is Everton and Crystal Palace, the former clinging on by a thread year after year despite spending eye watering amounts. If Palace lose their star players in the summer can't you evisage them struggling nearer the bottom of the league?

Look at Man Utd and Chelsea, despite the money they have spent they linger closer to Luton than Arsenal in terms of points.

Crucial to all of the things you mention is also an element of luck. Luck in getting a manager that can spend wisely and also luck that those crucial players that you bring in at great expense to keep you in Premier league both stay fit and deliver on the pitch.

It's not crystal clear to me the model that you want to see implemented, spend to get up and spend even more to stay up isn't a model that works over a prolonged period, for most clubs. As at some point within a 10 year window unless you pile in Newcastle types of investment you are going to face a tricky season and relegation, then you're in trouble unless you bounce straight back which is another challenge in itself and even you do, you will lose so much money in that season of return that unless you have bottomless pockets you won't have the funds to invest sufficiently again when promoted.

And then on top of all of this is the impatience of fans, just look at West Ham over the past two seasons, for example. 9th place, 49 points, success in Europe and the manager is being hounded out. You see this repeated often. Even this success isn't enough and the fans want 'the cheque book out' which creates a bigger potental circle of debt.

This dream of getting up and staying up is a poisoned chalice for all involved and almost certain to end in failure.
Click to expand...

👏🏻👏🏻
 
fmttmadmin said:
I was handed a piece of paper at the end of the Q and A documented by a fly me to the moon writer, George.
Steve Gibson was asked 67 questions by supporters on the night. He may have deflected one or two but for the most part he gave a very candid response. The questions came from raised hands, Liam racing around with the microphone and more anonymously scribbled on paper and handed to Liam or myself. It was as open as it could be and back in the Legends Lounge last night I bumped into a couple of those present that night saying just how much they had enjoyed the evening. Would it be repeated.
I hope so and hopefully we will also be able to secure Kieran Scott or even Michael Carrick next time. And once again raising a lot of money for a charity or two.
But room capacity is limited so the tickets are always going to fly.
Click to expand...
Rob, he did field a lot of questions and as I posted afterwards, it is important to register that there was absolutely no vetting, restriction or blocks in place.

He did however deflect a lot.
When you say some candid answers, they were closed off and triggered long musings that he wanted to project. There was no interaction or development of a theme, just long one way projections.
The event still served a good purpose. I didn't expect interaction; there was probably more than I thought there would be.
You would have to have a much smaller group to have such interaction.
I still say hats off for arranging it Rob and to Gibson for opening up a tiny bit.
 
indeedido said:
Nonsense.
I don't think even the most ambitious Boro fan truly expects us to have promotion, then a future of PL football only.
But neither will they accept 1 season in 16 in the top flight - and we all know how Bob Mortimer succinctly put that one season.

The football "giants" of Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton have all done much better.
Other clubs have been down, but quickly returned, like Burnley, Sheff U, Leicester.
Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons.
Christ even your sorry lot on the Humber have one more season.

Of the teams who have finished above us this season, only Ipswich have not been in the PL across that time span.

One bloke (not me) at the Q&A said we Boro fans deserve better than 1 season in 16 in the PL and Gibson's immediate response was "You don't deserve anything". I thought his caustic response was quite revealing. He then went on a monologue about wage bills and his contribution versus ours as fans and the malaise of current football finances outside the PL.
He quoted rival wage bills at Leicester, Leeds, Southampton and other recently promoted PP clubs.

But what of other clubs promoted to the PL without Parachute Payments?
An owner DOES have to spend to get up.
They then DO have to both spend AND invest to stay up - and do so intelligently.
They invest in a squad. How well they invest is determined by amortisation versus Profit from sales of player registrations, plus market value of squad over book.
They spend on wages/fees.
Virtually every club who goes up has to spend and both invest and spend to stay there (Brighton the most obvious)

But the spending:
Brighton's wage bill was £40m in their promotion season year to 2017, up £13m and almost doubling. They did not spend big on buying players, but they paid them very well.
Wolves' was £51m in promotion season to 2018, up £22m. The same season Cardiff's was £48m up £19m.
Sheff U wage bill was £41m (almost doubling) and up £19m in year to 2019.
Leeds wage bill was £78m, up £32m in their promotion season to 2020
Brentford's wage bill in promotion season to 2021 was £41m, up £16m.
Forest wage bill in promotion season to 2022 was £59m up £22m.

All other clubs promoted since we were have had Parachute Payments, and much higher wage bills. The exceptions are Luton (wage bill £28m up £10m) in 2023 and most remarkably Huddersfield £22m up £9m in 2017.
Gibson strangely said our wage bill would be £22m at the Q&A, when it was £30m last season. I think perhaps he was talking players only, rather than full published wage bill. If not then how will we realistically defy financial gravity?

Steve is very defensive about his position, and the format of the Q&A as I posted, was not conducive to interaction when he didn't want it. (No criticism Rob, just a reality)
Luton and Huddersfield have defied gravity to get up, but the chance of emulating their experience is extremely slim.
Not investing (wisely) in a squad fit to stay is a surefire route back to the Championship with short term relief only via PP?

So Brian, what alternative do you see but a spend to invest model to step change status and give a good chance of gripping on?
Click to expand...

First of all, we have had 4 seasons in the Premier League in that time so that makes it 3 more than you! Prior to that it was zero in something like the previous 100 years!

I think you are too hung up with what other teams are doing in what is essentially a race to the bottom in terms of debt and maybe as a fan, as should all fans, be content with the club being run financially sound and see where that takes you. I mentioned Bolton in my earlier thread, at one point under Allardyce they were held up as the model to follow but how many teams in the top two divisions wish to emulate them now?

Your Chairman is ploughing in a staggering amount of money and yet you want more and he is right that you don't deserve anything, you buy a ticket which gives you the right to watch a game of fooball, not decide on the financial outlay and essentially behave like a shareholder.

'Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons' For me this highlights a sense of arrogance and entitlement as I certainly don't see you as any more remarkable than these clubs from the outside looking in.

Spend to invest model doesn't exist in football, just spiralling debt, coming straight from the pockets of your Chairman.
 
Brian Marwood said:
'Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons' For me this highlights a sense of arrogance and entitlement as I certainly don't see you as any more remarkable than these clubs from the outside looking in.
Click to expand...
I hear what you are saying about arrogance, but I guess fans have a sense of where their club should be based on historical data.

Man Utd fans believe they should be winning the title at least every 3 years. they're very unhappy
Boro fans believe they should be an established prem side, they've been very unhappy.

Call it arrogance or entitlement, but it's simply an expectation based on what they've witnessed in the past. Boro have had a lot more top flight football, international footballers, european nights, cup semifinals in living memory, than all those sides.

Of course fans of other clubs will look at us the same way and think they are better, Hull fans might think 4 years in the prem recently to our 1, so they should be above us. Coventry fans, beat us in a play off semi, many think they should be above, despite going 25 years without finishing above us. It's fans being passionate in the moment. The reality is though, that given a long enough time frame, Boro will finish above all those sides in the league ladder more often than they don't. The last decade or so at Hull has probably been the clubs high point, the last 15 at Boro have been some of our lowest, but we're coming back out of it again. Good luck next season, think we will be top 4 and Hull will be 4-8th.
 
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I noted a few posts about competence along with ambition and financial muscle. I don't think you can question his ambition and finances which as we still a consistent top 30 club (as we should be by attendance levels). Competence I think he knows mistakes have been made, particularity in 2017 which set us back years. I think he learnt from that and appointed Scott as last year the amount of incomings was comparable to 2017 in terms of quantity. The transfer spending in summer 2017, I think we spent £47M and I would argue only Howson and Randolph were good buys. We got our money back on Randolph and Christie and maybe lost 2m on Braithwaite, but no player was sold for a profit. Britt and Fletcher left on frees at the end of their contract as they were not sellable. The following year we got Saville, McNair and Flint at maybe (£18m) we got £4-5m back, so no profit on those to reinvest. You look at the 2022 intake, I would guess £10m max spent, potential value £30-40m now. So competence is cleary improving in the club and will hopefully get us promotion.

On ticket prices, they are high but in reality if the club is successful next season, we will see crowds around 27-28k, if we struggle it will reduce to 18-20k. I can imagine 40,000 Boro fans having very little difficulty in funding a trip to Wembley at £90 per ticket, hotel and travel. We can moan all we like about ticket prices and Gibson should reduce them, He won't because the demand is there with success. and he is banking on the club's new policies to provide that. Lets hope he succeeds and maybe then reduces prices if we get up.
 
My little gripe about one of the questions asked about tickets pricing.

Why do Boro HAVE to increase kids tickets if they drop adults ones? Definitely smells very much of divide and rule, making sure the older supporters are on board with him and will kick off if these increases happen.

The kids pricing structure (paid £20 for my 10 yr old for the Watford game) is completely bollox when you see what other clubs do for U5/U10/U16/U18 etc.

Older supporters will stop going one day......and if the kids have been priced out years before.......
 
h_m_boro said:
My little gripe about one of the questions asked about tickets pricing.

Why do Boro HAVE to increase kids tickets if they drop adults ones? Definitely smells very much of divide and rule, making sure the older supporters are on board with him and will kick off if these increases happen.

The kids pricing structure (paid £20 for my 10 yr old for the Watford game) is completely bollox when you see what other clubs do for U5/U10/U16/U18 etc.

Older supporters will stop going one day......and if the kids have been priced out years before.......
Click to expand...
To keep the revenue the same.
 
h_m_boro said:
My little gripe about one of the questions asked about tickets pricing.

Why do Boro HAVE to increase kids tickets if they drop adults ones? Definitely smells very much of divide and rule, making sure the older supporters are on board with him and will kick off if these increases happen.

The kids pricing structure (paid £20 for my 10 yr old for the Watford game) is completely bollox when you see what other clubs do for U5/U10/U16/U18 etc.

Older supporters will stop going one day......and if the kids have been priced out years before.......
Click to expand...
He actually said adult prices would have to increase further to fund lower kids prices, but I get what you mean.
 
Brian Marwood said:
First of all, we have had 4 seasons in the Premier League in that time so that makes it 3 more than you! Prior to that it was zero in something like the previous 100 years!

I think you are too hung up with what other teams are doing in what is essentially a race to the bottom in terms of debt and maybe as a fan, as should all fans, be content with the club being run financially sound and see where that takes you. I mentioned Bolton in my earlier thread, at one point under Allardyce they were held up as the model to follow but how many teams in the top two divisions wish to emulate them now?

Your Chairman is ploughing in a staggering amount of money and yet you want more and he is right that you don't deserve anything, you buy a ticket which gives you the right to watch a game of fooball, not decide on the financial outlay and essentially behave like a shareholder.

'Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons' For me this highlights a sense of arrogance and entitlement as I certainly don't see you as any more remarkable than these clubs from the outside looking in.

Spend to invest model doesn't exist in football, just spiralling debt, coming straight from the pockets of your Chairman.
Click to expand...
I never said we were so much better or bigger than those clubs, just that there was nothing remarkable about them.
Brighton did spend to unlock PL revenues, then have heavily invested to establish themselves on another level to us. There are others I posted above too.
I am not hung up on or about anything Brian.
Gibson at the Q&A said he could not afford what other owners are willing to do.
I don’t doubt that, or criticise it, I get it. I equally get that another owner might well choose to, but would Gibson ever let go of his precious?
 
Just trying to find Sunderlands latest wage bill.
It's a bit opaque but I think it's


9.0306​
7.32094​

indeedido said:
Nonsense.
I don't think even the most ambitious Boro fan truly expects us to have promotion, then a future of PL football only.
But neither will they accept 1 season in 16 in the top flight - and we all know how Bob Mortimer succinctly put that one season.

The football "giants" of Brentford, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves, Palace, Everton have all done much better.
Other clubs have been down, but quickly returned, like Burnley, Sheff U, Leicester.
Completely unremarkable clubs like clubs like Watford, Norwich, Southampton, West Brom, Cardiff, Swansea and Stoke have all had more top flight seasons than us in that 16 seasons.
Christ even your sorry lot on the Humber have one more season.

Of the teams who have finished above us this season, only Ipswich have not been in the PL across that time span.

One bloke (not me) at the Q&A said we Boro fans deserve better than 1 season in 16 in the PL and Gibson's immediate response was "You don't deserve anything". I thought his caustic response was quite revealing. He then went on a monologue about wage bills and his contribution versus ours as fans and the malaise of current football finances outside the PL.
He quoted rival wage bills at Leicester, Leeds, Southampton and other recently promoted PP clubs.

But what of other clubs promoted to the PL without Parachute Payments?
An owner DOES have to spend to get up.
They then DO have to both spend AND invest to stay up - and do so intelligently.
They invest in a squad. How well they invest is determined by amortisation versus Profit from sales of player registrations, plus market value of squad over book.
They spend on wages/fees.
Virtually every club who goes up has to spend and both invest and spend to stay there (Brighton the most obvious)

But the spending:
Brighton's wage bill was £40m in their promotion season year to 2017, up £13m and almost doubling. They did not spend big on buying players, but they paid them very well.
Wolves' was £51m in promotion season to 2018, up £22m. The same season Cardiff's was £48m up £19m.
Sheff U wage bill was £41m (almost doubling) and up £19m in year to 2019.
Leeds wage bill was £78m, up £32m in their promotion season to 2020
Brentford's wage bill in promotion season to 2021 was £41m, up £16m.
Forest wage bill in promotion season to 2022 was £59m up £22m.

All other clubs promoted since we were have had Parachute Payments, and much higher wage bills. The exceptions are Luton (wage bill £28m up £10m) in 2023 and most remarkably Huddersfield £22m up £9m in 2017.
Gibson strangely said our wage bill would be £22m at the Q&A, when it was £30m last season. I think perhaps he was talking players only, rather than full published wage bill. If not then how will we realistically defy financial gravity?

Steve is very defensive about his position, and the format of the Q&A as I posted, was not conducive to interaction when he didn't want it. (No criticism Rob, just a reality)
Luton and Huddersfield have defied gravity to get up, but the chance of emulating their experience is extremely slim.
Not investing (wisely) in a squad fit to stay is a surefire route back to the Championship with short term relief only via PP?

So Brian, what alternative do you see but a spend to invest model to step change status and give a good chance of gripping on?
Click to expand...
Very interesting post.
Just trying to find Sunderland's latest wage bill to compare to our £22m or £30m.
It's a bit opaque but I THINK it's £9.2m up from £7.3m.
Mogga really was working magic up there!
Surely they'll lose Clarke this year and their Billionaire Boy owner will struggle to keep the unsettled mackems happy unless he puts his hand in his pocket
 
Badonde said:
Just trying to find Sunderlands latest wage bill.
It's a bit opaque but I think it's


9.0306​
7.32094​


Very interesting post.
Just trying to find Sunderland's latest wage bill to compare to our £22m or £30m.
It's a bit opaque but I THINK it's £9.2m up from £7.3m.
Mogga really was working magic up there!
Surely they'll lose Clarke this year and their Billionaire Boy owner will struggle to keep the unsettled mackems happy unless he puts his hand in his pocket
Click to expand...
Sunderland's wage bill in the season to 2023 was £25.3m up £9.2m versus previous year.
Our wage bill was £29.6m up £1.2m.

Their turnover was £9.3m up at £35.1m. Ours was £1.8m up at £28.6m
Ticket receipts were £1.2m up at £10.6m. Ours was £0.5m down at £9.1m.

They make a lot on Conference & Banqueting which I guess covers concerts?

They made £0.3m on Player Sales, we made £22.3m.
Their Amortisation charge was £2.7m, ours was £11.6m

They lost £9.7m before tax, we lost £6.4m

They generate more overall, but not per supporter.
They haven't sold players to supplement turnover, because they haven't had any to sell.
They haven't bought much of note, so yes Mowbray worked miracles.

Their owner has shown not the slightest inclination to invest in the squad, they are going backwards and losses are starting to mount again. Their nett negative shareholder value is similar to ours post Gibson's debt to equity conversion last year.
 
WhitRed said:
Losing 5000 season ticket holders won't keep the revenue the same, it will be a lot less, meaning Gibson will be roughly £300,000 down on revenue
Click to expand...
Not what I said. He would need to increase one to offset the other.
 
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