Although Brexit in effect gives us a -4% head start on the rest in terms of GDP.
Starmer: No to a Second Referendum
- Thread starter The Ruthsayer
- Start date
Although Brexit in effect gives us a -4% head start on the rest in terms of GDP.
BoroMart
Well-known member
possibly, but it depends on what the economic markers are saying. I think we're probably stuck with brexit for the next 15 years sadly. By then the older generation will be gone, we will have a much more centrist and left leaning society that wants to build not destroy.
You want peole to die?
You beleive people want to destroy? Destroy what?
Millions of people who were left leaning and centrist voted for brexit.
The EU economically is not left leaning.
1finny
Well-known member
Yes, agree with that.
Pragmatically, of course, those joining forces can make it easy or hard to work together on reforms.
Compromise is always on the table and, you never know.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Yeah, after doing crap for so long we will inevitably start to grow again, it's just a case of how far behind we would be, compared to where we were heading in the EU. Before the referendum growth was the best in the G7, now it's predicted as second worst in the G20, only ahead of Russia who just started a war for no reason.
Andy_W
Well-known member
Yup, we just need Labour to stick around until we get to that stage, and I can see them winning (or not losing to a majority) at least 2/3 of the next three elections, which would be as good as we can hope for. Most of the brexit damage will be done between 2016 and 2026, or at least it's baked in for then, and after that the comparative losses should tail off as we get used to our crap situation, and try and make some sort of crappy niche out of it.
This brexit/ current tory crap seems like the last hurrah for the far right lot though, I think, as in I think what we have now is the worst we'll ever have in my remaining lifetime.
BoroMart
Well-known member
personally I think that coalitions are important in a democracy. It's why I want PR. It stops the biggest minority from driving the rhetoric and policy.
If you want true change, then building a guiding coalition across stakeholders is really important, gives you a fighting chance of getting change embedded and the new way of the world.
Andy_W
Well-known member
I don't think he's saying he wants people to die. I think he's acknowledging that people do die and that we have a top heavy older population, which is statistically more likely to lean right than left, which is all correct and well known. This is leaning largely due to when they were born, and that you generally have more wealth when you're older (and hence become more greedy/ more Tory).
Even the left and centrists could be conned by the brexit crap, and some of them were, but those on the right were conned easier as the media tugged on their hateful "heart" strings.
The EU isn't left leaning (or the UK), but it will end up there, it's baked in to the right now, largely by the baby boom which was over half a century ago. But since the 80's it's being baked in to go the other way due to the decrease in fertility rates since the 1980's, coupled with people being born in far more inclusive times. The average woman was having 3 kids in the 60's, now it's 1.5, and it's been below 2 since 1975.
Also, people born now will not get the benefit of the house price boom, and now the average cost of a house is 10x yearly wages, where as it used to be 4x, this is effectively going to mean those trying to get on the ladder now, are not going to be as wealthy/ as tory, when they're older.
Those being born in more recent times, or ageing into those same brackets will be more tolerant/ inclusive/ left leaning, and then they'll die as well, and be replaced by even more tolerance/ inclusivity and left leaning.
We've got a top heavy population due to the baby boom, which surged the average age of the population since the 80's (from 34 to 42). This in turn pushed the country right as the uk was older and those older people were born in less tolerant times than now, people just getting older out did the increase in tolerance from the younger folk coming through.
Over the next few decades that average age increase should really start to stagnate, and with that the decade which the average age of the population was born will shift into more tolerant times. I.e 40 year olds in the 00's were born in 1960's, 40 year olds now born in 80's, and 40 year olds in 2040 would have been born in the 00's. Since the 80's/ 90's the world has become a lot more tolerant and integrated due to human rights, world trade, travel and the internet etc, going to be very hard for the right to fight this. It's a very slow process mind, and takes decades to play out.
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Laughing
Well-known member
Starmer is simply saying what he has to say at the moment. We are stuck with brexit for the time being, regardless of the apatite in the country.
We would have to start to re-align on standards, which Starmer is saying labour will do. It is a necessary first step in rejoining the sm/cu. A manifesto has to be a one term manifesto and we couldn't joing the SM in a single term anyway. Where is the political advantage to saying we are heading to the SM? There isn't any. It really is as simple as that.
I think folks are making more of this than is there.
We would have to start to re-align on standards, which Starmer is saying labour will do. It is a necessary first step in rejoining the sm/cu. A manifesto has to be a one term manifesto and we couldn't joing the SM in a single term anyway. Where is the political advantage to saying we are heading to the SM? There isn't any. It really is as simple as that.
I think folks are making more of this than is there.
BoroMart
Well-known member
what a rediculous take from my comment. Not even close to what I said. I simply commented on the direction of our demographics and how that reflects the referendum stance.
trade relations with our neighbours, I thought that was obvious
of course, but the vast majority who voted remain were left leaning and the vast majority who were right leaning voted brexit.
It's fairly balanced, it has plenty of workers rights enshrouded in it that we've been told are left leaning. It has food standards to stop capitalists giving people dangerous food that would maximise the profits of the food industry. So there are plenty of left leaning parts of EU membership. It's a fairly balanced solution, but what do you expect the french and germans wrote most of it.
Your idea of political progress was ageist- We will get our way when this demographic passes on.
Its not obvious. You could have been posting about social cohesion.
A majority of working class people voted for Brexit. This was not a right leaning vote.
The EU is neo liberal with an aversion to democracy. The EU provided no protection to a spiralling gig economy, zero hours employment and transient employment. The EU is pro competition versus state ownership of assets.
Free movement of cheap labour within the EU keeps working class wages down - “It is an iron law of economics that an abundant supply of labour pushes down its cost. It is insulting people’s intelligence to pretend otherwise” — Irish Congress of Trade Unions. Moving low paid workers across a continent to a higher wage economy forcing labour costs down is a bosses **** fest =Creating micro economies where socio economic groups work for less, putting downward pressure on wages is not left leaning thought.
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Andy_W
Well-known member
Hardly ageist saying most older folk voted tory/ leave the same way it isn't ageist to say most younger folk voted remain/ labour. Even if they were ageist statements, then these effectively cancel each other out anyway (and I expect he's in the middle), and most people transit through all these boundaries.
You said he wanted people to die, which was much worse, I would say.
As the decades have moved on, people have been brought up in more inclusive times, and it's becoming much harder for most people to build up some wealth. It's just a natural progression to people being more tolerant/ open when they're older, and less wealthy.
Brexit destroyed the economical outlook which is most peoples biggest problem, this was even forecast by the Tories own economical forecasts, then they chose the worst version of it, and that was always going to be a problem for social cohesion.
The working class can still vote for right sided polices, there was millions of them voting UKIP, BNP etc who got suckered in by Farage etc.
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BoroMart
Well-known member
it's not ageist at all, it's a realisation that the future belongs to the young not the old, nothing more nothing less.
I'm not part of the boomer generation, I was born in the 70s, I don't share their values, and nor should U have to respect them. Those people rarely seem to share the younger generations values so be it. A quirk of social engineered growth over a brief period of time has given them power, but it's waning and will be gone.
If you think working class equals left and middle class equals right then you might want to a check your demographics, and b look at history, I mean it was the working classes that pushed the nazis to power not the elite.
Like I said it's balanced. It isn't neo liberal, if it was it would have torn down workers rights a long time ago, like our neo liberal government has started to do.
exactly. My statement wasn't ageist, but then his comment was utterly distasteful to tar me as someone that is reveling in the idea of people dying. It's why he's on my block list, it's dishonest debate.
The Ruthsayer
Well-known member
Pembroke, commenting only on your final paragraph: I could not agree more. This was one of the reasons that Corbyn was anti-EU. Interestingly, Dublin was the only major city I have visited (2010-2013ish), where the bars and construction sites that were advertising positions had 'No Eastern European' signs clearly shown.
Lefty
Well-known member
That wasn't Starmer, that was the wishes of the vast majority ie 3/4 of the Party. It was also after 18 months of polls that had shown a majority of the country thought Brexit was a mistake.
Corbyn did not do the same thing. He was useless, didn't form a view on it and into his leadership vaccuum Milne and McClusky and others in LOTO substituted their own stupid Lexit desires against the wishes of the members and in contravention of what had been agreed positions in shadow cabinet.
BlindBoyGrunt
Well-known member
Oh yes it was, nobody at the head of the party knew he was going to go off piste at the conference and announce this.
EU parliament chiefs welcome Jeremy Corbyn’s new Brexit plans
Theresa May told that backstop and withdrawal agreement cannot be reopened
www.independent.co.uk
No I did not. I asked a question.
The you gov polls there need to be more nuanced. If you look at socio economic groups E-D-C2 what you will see is working class people obviously favouring Brexit. There are clear themes with people from the topical red wall seats voting for Brexit. Similar themes can been seen in Cities, Bristol a red City in its South working class Labour constituents voted heavily for Brexit, versus its more affluent red seats voting remain.
You have linked voting UKIP to the BNP. Millions of working class people do not vote for the BNP and ethno nationalism. UKIP were a very differing thing. Working class people did lend their votes to UKIP and similar, not because they in their millions suddenly became right wing but because Labour has failed them.
Labour interests over the past two decades have moved. The party has become the party of the middle class. Its world view represents a middle class world view. Working class votes have drained away from Labour. There is an unhealthy synergy for Labour there -Labour is being rejected by a class it was formed to represent..
Elements of Labour and its supporters frequently looks upon working class people as that embarrassing elderly relative. Thats what I picked on. Brexit wasn't a vote of the old, or the thick, or the racist, or all the other dehumanising punching down slurs directed at what where tens of millions, it was a rejection of the status quo.
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