Reform

ForssAwakens

ForssAwakens

Well-known member
Can the realistically win any seats

Can the tories turn people off enough for the people of Redcar to vote for them, for instance
 
I think they'll get 2 or 3.
They are the only party who are seemingly increasing their popularity through this election campaign.

Labour's lead is increasing due to the Tory demise rather than their own growth.

A lot of people on this board have been calling for Proportional Representation for the last 14 years. PR is actually a scary thought now where Reform/Tory could probably form a coalition government if it was in place.

With a 18-20% share of the polls I would expect Reform will manage to capture 1-5 seats.
 
The Right Wing Tories who have been put off by the shambles that their party has become might vote for them in numbers. I can see them coming 3rd in a lot of the seats, but perhaps not actually winning any. A bit like UKIP in that respect. They will divide the right wing vote, which will hurt the Tories.
 
Farage has said some horrible things about the constituency that he is standing in. I hope that the local people will see that he is not someone who is going to take any local issues seriously at all.
 
The first past the post system makes it really difficult for new/different parties to win seats. Most people will vote for the same party they always do and even if they gain popularity then gaining enough in a constituency that is already established as a one/two party constituency is difficult. In 2015 UKIP got nearly 4m votes and it gave them 1 seat. The Lib Dems got 2.4m and 8 seats, the SNP got 1.4m and 56 seats. That was more than the SNP and Lib Dems combined but that got them 63 seats fewer.

I don't agree with anything Reform have to say but it is a nonsense system that gives so many votes so little representation in Parliament.

The biggest problem with Reform isn't whether or not they are taking votes off the Tories. Labour should be wondering why these people aren't voting for Labour. They are mostly traditional working class former Labour voters, even if they have voted for the Tories/UKIP more recently. This is what happens when Labour abandons the workers and moves to the right. Those voters aren't economically right-wing, they aren't wealthy, they aren't businesses they are people that would benefit most from left wing economics and they have only ended up over on the right because Labour have stopped talking about the negatives of immigration and how it impacts the people that have to compete for housing/jobs/public services with the additional people. It makes it too easy for people like Farage to stoke racism/hatred when all the opposition parties are saying there is no problem.
 
Nano said:
The first past the post system makes it really difficult for new/different parties to win seats. Most people will vote for the same party they always do and even if they gain popularity then gaining enough in a constituency that is already established as a one/two party constituency is difficult. In 2015 UKIP got nearly 4m votes and it gave them 1 seat. The Lib Dems got 2.4m and 8 seats, the SNP got 1.4m and 56 seats. That was more than the SNP and Lib Dems combined but that got them 63 seats fewer.

I don't agree with anything Reform have to say but it is a nonsense system that gives so many votes so little representation in Parliament.

The biggest problem with Reform isn't whether or not they are taking votes off the Tories. Labour should be wondering why these people aren't voting for Labour. They are mostly traditional working class former Labour voters, even if they have voted for the Tories/UKIP more recently. This is what happens when Labour abandons the workers and moves to the right. Those voters aren't economically right-wing, they aren't wealthy, they aren't businesses they are people that would benefit most from left wing economics and they have only ended up over on the right because Labour have stopped talking about the negatives of immigration and how it impacts the people that have to compete for housing/jobs/public services with the additional people. It makes it too easy for people like Farage to stoke racism/hatred when all the opposition parties are saying there is no problem.
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I would like to see proportional representation so there is a chance for another party other than Labour and Conservative being in power. However the argument is this would lead to more hung parliaments and nothing be done.
 
speckyget said:
Most European governments involve some kind of coalition and they seem to muddle through.
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The thing is, everywhere thinks that their country does it the worst way don't they? Its not like the people of USA, France and Germany are looking at the UK going "We do it brilliantly compared to them". I was chatting to a Californian two weeks ago who was desperate to move to the UK, I explained to her that it was far from a bed of roses and that our weather was worse but she wouldn't have it.
 
atypical_boro said:
The thing is, everywhere thinks that their country does it the worst way don't they? Its not like the people of USA, France and Germany are looking at the UK going "We do it brilliantly compared to them". I was chatting to a Californian two weeks ago who was desperate to move to the UK, I explained to her that it was far from a bed of roses and that our weather was worse but she wouldn't have it.
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I suppose if you're looking at a summer of uncontrolled forest fires our perpetual damp might be quite appealing.
 
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