Prighozin dead

[BoroMart]

Hard to imagine anyone in the Russian military would do it without Putin’s sign off.

Unlikely but not impossibly if anyone in the military is ready to dispose putin

 

[Redwurzel]

You're not wrong about the history, but I do think there are legitimate parallels with Hitler. This is similar to the earlier annexations when Hitler still acted under the pretence that he was just reclaiming German lands full of German people. It's not 100% the same, but there are clear similarities. And I do believe he is hiding his real intentions behind the "safety of ethnic Russians".

And I don't know whether he would accept just the Donbass/Crimea. There's no way that he would go to the lengths that he has done in Ukraine just to get formal acceptance of the Donbass and Crimea belonging to Russia. They have pretty much been "independent"/under Russian control since 2015, at least to the same extent that Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria are. If that's all he wanted, he would have left it alone, like he has in those regions.

Either way, Ukraine would be in a real mess post-war if they accepted Russian control of any areas beyond, possibly, Crimea (although even that could be a tough sell). You've got quite a few heavily armed, fairly extreme, militias who are very nationalistic and who have just been fighting almost suicidal odds at times for the country. You have a population who have just endured heavy bombing campaigns and will have lost loved ones. You have refugees who have been scattered all across Europe who will have lost loved ones during the war. The President's position would be untenable if he agreed to any concessions to end the way, and he'd leave office and flee abroad at best, or face an armed uprising or civil war at worst. Then you're either looking at a power vacuum, a military dictatorship, or an even longer, extremely bloody, internal conflict. That's when you're going to have to rely on NATO forces to act as peacekeepers in an area where any of the militias have access to very powerful weapons.

I just think we've reached a point where neither side can back down without looking weak. And the best possible outcome I can think of is that Putin kills off all of his opposition so that he can present any concessions to Russia as a victory without dissent, whilst Ukraine loses so little that they can also present it as a victory. That's risky for both sides though.

There is an issue for Putin with NATO membership for Ukraine. If someone were the invade Russia it would likely to come from the Ukraine region along the open plains. He wanted Ukraine to be a buffer zone, if hes got NATO forces stationed in say the Donbass they are right against his belly button. The naval ports in Crimea are important because they are warm water and suited for the Russian Navy. Sometimes people have to think insecurities of your opponent. Russians can feel insecure too and use that to negotiate. I think they would withdraw quite a way back and stop the aggression if they had the Crimean ports and a road to the Donbass, and the Donbass, with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO. Putin woud not lose face, but he would have withdrawn from a lot of Ukraine and there would be end to the fighting. Its not perfect of course, but the alternative to me is many years of conflict and deaths

 

[BoroMart]

There is an issue for Putin with NATO membership for Ukraine. If someone were the invade Russia it would likely to come from the Ukraine region along the open plains. He wanted Ukraine to be a buffer zone, if hes got NATO forces stationed in say the Donbass they are right against his belly button. The naval ports in Crimea are important because they are warm water and suited for the Russian Navy. Sometimes people have to think insecurities of your opponent. Russians can feel insecure too and use that to negotiate. I think they would withdraw quite a way back and stop the aggression if they had the Crimean ports and a road to the Donbass, and the Donbass, with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO. Putin woud not lose face, but he would have withdrawn from a lot of Ukraine and there would be end to the fighting. Its not perfect of course, but the alternative to me is many years of conflict and deaths

There is no negotiation that would last. Russia will always want more. Give them nothing, make that clear, fight til they leave

 

[Mwelolo]

Unlikely but not impossibly if anyone in the military is ready to dispose putin

Don’t hold your breath.

 

[BoroMart]

Don’t hold your breath.

I’m not, but I’m not ruling that out either. The war has gone badly, a lot of rich and powerful people have lost a lot of money, Putin is only bulletproof until he isn’t bulletproof

 

[Smoggle]

There is an issue for Putin with NATO membership for Ukraine. If someone were the invade Russia it would likely to come from the Ukraine region along the open plains. He wanted Ukraine to be a buffer zone, if hes got NATO forces stationed in say the Donbass they are right against his belly button. The naval ports in Crimea are important because they are warm water and suited for the Russian Navy. Sometimes people have to think insecurities of your opponent. Russians can feel insecure too and use that to negotiate. I think they would withdraw quite a way back and stop the aggression if they had the Crimean ports and a road to the Donbass, and the Donbass, with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO. Putin woud not lose face, but he would have withdrawn from a lot of Ukraine and there would be end to the fighting. Its not perfect of course, but the alternative to me is many years of conflict and deaths

You are completely ignoring the right of Ukraine, and any other nation bordering Russia, to make their own decisions. Ask the Ukrainians what they want first maybe. There are reasons these former Soviet and Warsaw Pact countries are afraid of Russian intensions and want closer ties with the EU/NATO etc - they are all so much more than just buffer states and negotiation tools.

Putin told us what he expects in his 2007 Munich “spheres of influence” speech and has acted in precisely a way to achieve that, to think if he just gets his way he’ll be pacified is severely underestimating the man. Long-term peace will not come with Ukraine giving away territory.

 

[rbmfc1985]

There is an issue for Putin with NATO membership for Ukraine. If someone were the invade Russia it would likely to come from the Ukraine region along the open plains. He wanted Ukraine to be a buffer zone, if hes got NATO forces stationed in say the Donbass they are right against his belly button. The naval ports in Crimea are important because they are warm water and suited for the Russian Navy. Sometimes people have to think insecurities of your opponent. Russians can feel insecure too and use that to negotiate. I think they would withdraw quite a way back and stop the aggression if they had the Crimean ports and a road to the Donbass, and the Donbass, with Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO. Putin woud not lose face, but he would have withdrawn from a lot of Ukraine and there would be end to the fighting. Its not perfect of course, but the alternative to me is many years of conflict and deaths

I really don't believe that pretence. NATO won't accept any country with an ongoing land dispute on their territory. If this was the issue, he'd have just allowed the fighting in the Donbass to continue and that would have prevented NATO membership. There is something more he wants, which is why it isn't just a simple resolution.

I agree with those who say that both Ukraine should have the final say over any agreement, and I agree that it may require land to be given up to stop the bloodshed. Both of these are contradictory, but it's just the reality of the situation. The most important thing is that the peace that follows needs to be lasting - and that requires an understanding of what Putin's aims actually are. If you give him assurances of no NATO membership, but what he really wants is a puppet government in Ukraine then you can't placate him in any manner with land or assurances. In two or three years time there'll be another "Special Military Operation".

 

[BobUpnDown]

NATO wouldn't invade Russia.. it's Russia that does the invading, just look at history..

Ukraine should be told it will become a full NATO member 12th June 2024 & Russia has to withdraw all military from Ukraine, pre 2014 & internationally recognised boundaries, by then including Crimea.

NATO can the enforce a no fly zone over Ukraine & backfill strategic locations away from the frontline, releasing Ukraine forces to Russian & Belarusian fronts..