Please, a basic explanation to what’s happening: Re Russia and Ukraine

1finny said:
Firstly, it’s a horrible situation and the Ukrainians must be having a torrid time.
Secondly, the comments above are all from Western/USA sources.
I’ve no idea what is going on (Putin says different to the West - as may be expected).

Who do you believe?
Take your pick but just remember they are all spinning (incl Putin) so very difficult to get to the truth of what it is really about.
Click to expand...
Listen to the podcasts available by Brian whitmore
Essentially putin is furious that the ussr was broken up and sees this as an historical mistake and is outraged.
He wants to take back what he believes is rightly Russian
He’s played a strategic blinder and weakened the west just enough to now move in and take Ukraine

Don’t think he would dare go into nato countries however, nato now needs unity like never before to halt the new hitler
 
He's already taking Georgia, inch by inch, genuinely moving the border a few meters a month into the country.

The NATO thin is a ruse, as other have said if he takes control of Ukraine, and with Belarus being a puppet state of Russia anyway, he's moving himself to border NATO countries.

I also reckon he's behind the recent riots in Kazakhstan
 
Legz said:
Thank you for asking this, I actually came on tonight to ask the same thing as I don't really understand it all. Next question....how worried should we be?? Will he just take Ukraine and climb back into his hole (as some are saying he's just trying to reclaim the old Soviet Union). I have a 14 Yr old daughter who obviously is reading/hearing things and I'd like to be clued up enough to answer them.
Click to expand...
Tell your 14yr old this;

Russia think the Ukraine is part of Russia and wants it back after what happened 30 years ago when the USSR broke up,
Once the invasion is over things should settle down.
The sanctions will hurt Russia but they have rare earth minerals that the west need so I’d expect the west won’t be incredibly harsh on Russia because they can hurt us economically
Most probably we will sanction each other and thing’s will settle down in the months ahead with a tense and distant difficult relationship between Russia and the west.

That’s the best case and most probable scenario
 
SmallTown said:
I also reckon he's behind the recent riots in Kazakhstan
Click to expand...

I’m really unsure about Kazakhstan. There have been genuine grievances for years and a previous government massacre of protesters in Zhanaozen.

The protesters had legitimate reasons for taking to the streets but it escalated with what appeared to be extreme armed rioters taking on government forces - who benefits?

The US pretty much abandoned any influence in Central Asia years ago so they’re unlikely candidates even if some do see the CIA’s fingerprints everywhere. There are factions in the government, Tokayev has marginalised Nazarbayev’s allies so that is a real possibility and it was blamed partly on that. Regardless, Tokayev asked for help through the Russian controlled EEU which meant Russian boots on the ground in Kazakhstan to quell the violence - that was a favour that I expect will see advantages given to Russia. Note - resource poor and strategically insignificant Kyrgyzstan previously asked for EEU support for unrest within their borders and were refused.

I was previously in Astana/Nursultan and it’s where most of my friends are from Kaz, as it is the seat of government and escaped most of the unrest its hard to get an accurate picture of what happened elsewhere.
 
A big worry for me (in addition to the obvious ones) is there seem to be quite a few people who have met him suspect he's losing his marbles, his personality has changed and some of his behaviour is pretty odd, even by Putin propaganda standards.

Of course I wouldn't put it past him to be doing it deliberately to further unsettle the west and make his intentions even harder to read. But it's a big concern someone with access to nuclear weapons could be starting to suffer from dementia or some other disorder. Particularly when he was paranoid enough to start with. He's no spring chicken obviously.
 
Smoggle said:
Do you mean Kaliningrad in the Baltic region, not Murmansk in the Arctic/Barents? I was in Murmansk little over a month ago and it’s definitely connected to mainland Russia!
Click to expand...
Apologies,yes you are correct. It was the weird.place that England had a game in their world cup. Sorry about that, I was trying to remember the names and for some reason Murmansk came into my head. I will change it.
 
Last edited:
Ex Footy Legs said:
Tell your 14yr old this;

Russia think the Ukraine is part of Russia and wants it back after what happened 30 years ago when the USSR broke up,
Once the invasion is over things should settle down.
The sanctions will hurt Russia but they have rare earth minerals that the west need so I’d expect the west won’t be incredibly harsh on Russia because they can hurt us economically
Most probably we will sanction each other and thing’s will settle down in the months ahead with a tense and distant difficult relationship between Russia and the west.

That’s the best case and most probable scenario
Click to expand...
Thank you, I just want to be able to tell her why in terms like this. There's so much being said or written, not all true and I just want to give her the basics and calm her nerves. She's mentioned several times now, which she's obviously got from TV as I've heard it myself, that things ain't been so bad since the 1930's and the lead up to ww2....poor b***r even mentioned about rationing the other day. We do need to know what's going on but I do believe 24 hr news is not good, it whips things up a lot and doesn't help with mental health problems etc. That's why I stopped watching etc at the beginning of covid, sick of being bombarded all day and night.
 
BlindBoyGrunt said:
I believe that Putin is only interested in Crimea and protecting her warm water port in Sevastopol. . A majority of Crimeans are ethnic Russian and would prefer to belong to that country so perhaps the only way forward is a rerun the 2014 referendum with overseers agreed by both sides, which would give them the right of self determination.
Click to expand...
But I would guess he'd want a land corridor there, so he'll want Donbass to be part of Russia
 
Randy said:
Nope pretty much spot on. Putin doesn't want American controlled missiles pointing at his country from all directions aswell as he wants more land.
Click to expand...
he already had US and european guns and rockets pointed his way. If his aim was to reduce that, then he has utterly failed as this will hugely escalate tensions and have far more military hardware on europes eastern outposts and far more guns and missiles pointed at Russia. If reducing this was was his aim, then it is a failed strategy. He isn't an idiot, he knew this would happen, so we can consign this theory to the bin.

You have to remember Putin's history, he is from the era of the USSR. Ukraine was one of 13 semi-nations that formed the USSR. He wants to restore Russian might by expanding and reclaiming these now sovereign, independent countries. This is imperialism, a land grab and fueled by some 40 year old vision of Russian might. He's shown persistent aggression to these neighboring countries, be it chechya or ukraine in the past, and also aggression towards both europe and USA. Even when europe offered the hand of friendship with investment in Russia, he still looked for an angle to destabilise and create conflict. Conflict, aggression, militarisation, we have to accept this is his DNA. He has played the long game here with misinformation campaigns, murders on foreign soil, and crushing of political opposition. He clearly won't change at nearly 70 year old, he wants his legacy. Every other nation has to do everything it can do ensure Russia is put back in its box...until such time they can oust him and have proper free and fair elections and dismantling of the terrorist apparatus that runs that country.
 
futureboy said:
To piggyback onto this thread, I'd appreciate an idiots' guide to what can or will happen next. As I understand it, there's no chance of military retaliation from the West for fear that Putin will press the big red button? Is that correct?
Click to expand...
I don't see that as a real fear. HE wouldn't be pressing the button himself and who ever was about to press it knows they are consigning their own countrymen to retaliatory nuclear strikes.

It's more about military escalation and the possibility that russia may invade other countries including nato members, creating a great conflict. Personally, I beleive if this allowed to take Ukraine, he will then set his sights somewhere else. We have to learn from history, this is what Hitler did, Neville's piece of paper about no more aggression was nothing but toilet paper.
 
FabioPorkpie said:
Ros Atkins is worth a follow about most topics, as his short and to the point explainers tend to deliver factual information without the drama and theatre of some journalists.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496920739223646212
Click to expand...
I think this is a good report. A prosperous Ukraine as part of the EU, having checks and balances on it's democratic process as part of EU membership. If that is what their neighbours look like then maybe, the political opposition to Putin's corrupt autocratic regime will grow, a groundswell of wanting some of what their neighbours have could have dramatic consequences for the Russian elite. Despots have to cling to power, because if they are deposed then they are at risk of spending the rest of their years behind bars as the onion layers of corruption and murder are revealed. An element of political preservation is what drove his opposition of Ukraine courting the EU for membership and ultimately led to this invasion.
 
BoroMart said:
I don't see that as a real fear. HE wouldn't be pressing the button himself and who ever was about to press it knows they are consigning their own countrymen to retaliatory nuclear strikes.

It's more about military escalation and the possibility that russia may invade other countries including nato members, creating a great conflict. Personally, I beleive if this allowed to take Ukraine, he will then set his sights somewhere else. We have to learn from history, this is what Hitler did, Neville's piece of paper about no more aggression was nothing but toilet paper.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I appreciate the response - not that it's very comforting.
 
The talk of Putin potentially pressing the big red button is scaremongering at best. I'd hazard a guess that the yanks know exactly where all his nuclear armed subs are and if any launch tubes are opened on the Russian mainland the yanks would neutralise them before the missiles could be launched. Hell it wouldn't at all surprise me if American special forces have men on the ground with eyes on these launch sites in Russia right now.
 
Randy said:
The talk of Putin potentially pressing the big red button is scaremongering at best. I'd hazard a guess that the yanks know exactly where all his nuclear armed subs are and if any launch tubes are opened on the Russian mainland the yanks would neutralise them before the missiles could be launched. Hell it wouldn't at all surprise me if American special forces have men on the ground with eyes on these launch sites in Russia right now.
Click to expand...
Reminds me of a Clear and Present Danger - Tom Clancy at his best.
 
Randy said:
The talk of Putin potentially pressing the big red button is scaremongering at best. I'd hazard a guess that the yanks know exactly where all his nuclear armed subs are and if any launch tubes are opened on the Russian mainland the yanks would neutralise them before the missiles could be launched. Hell it wouldn't at all surprise me if American special forces have men on the ground with eyes on these launch sites in Russia right now.
Click to expand...

I'm very glad to hear it. It would be just our luck to have our promotion push derailed by a nuclear holocaust.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top