One of these days we are going give some one a pasting
- Thread starter Jedi boro
- Start date
BobUpnDown
Well-known member
I've thought that too: number of chances we create - unfortunately - we just have no compsoure in front of goal so unless we play more strikers (another one) I just think we'llscore 2 maybe 3 though not really put a team away..
To really turn a team over, 1 in 2 on target needs to be going in - last night 15 shots only 5 on target & too many of those were hit straight at the keeper..
To really turn a team over, 1 in 2 on target needs to be going in - last night 15 shots only 5 on target & too many of those were hit straight at the keeper..
Colin Warnek
Well-known member
Need 2 strikers up top to score more goals. As soon as Duncan came on - 3 clear chances, one should have been buried.
I'm less convinced. We create a lot of half chances but with low probability of scoring. We don't create many clear cut chances. Lots of shots like Muniz's which have several players to get through, Crooks' efforts from the edge of the box again through bodies and McGree's. Not many 1 on 1s with just the keeper to beat. The sort of chances where the xG is 0.1-0.2
Billy69_uk
Well-known member
I agree 100%, someone is going to be on the end of a hiding before long.
However, not converting chances when we are in control of a game is going to cost us (as it already has so far this season)
Ingleby_Flash
Well-known member
On a different night we could have easily scored four, although I admit we do say that a lot. A settled Akpom and Muniz up front and they’ll fly in - and not necessarily just from them two, but I think that’s the key, there’s goals to be unlocked right across the team.
and while we aren’t on the subject I’m thinking Robert’s over Steffen.
Edit Roberts not Robert’s over Steffen the two things are entirely different
and while we aren’t on the subject I’m thinking Robert’s over Steffen.
Edit Roberts not Robert’s over Steffen the two things are entirely different
Englishteacher
Active member
I’m fairly sure Robbie Keane said more or less the same thing back in the last ‘league table is lying’ era.
Jedi boro
Well-known member
No idea as I never took any notice of anything Robbie Keane said or did still don’t know that he actually did.
Frozen Horse
Well-known member
I think fans can be a bit unrealistic about what "good finishing" looks like.
Too often I hear "takes 3 chances to score" as a criticism, when really, it's above average.
Looking below, roughly 15% of shots result in a goal, and around 31% of shots on target result in a goal. I've not worked out our %s for this season; if anyone has them please post. And I know this doesn't say anytihng about the type of shot or quality of chance which, of course, is important.
I do agree with the OP though; there will be a day this season that'll be a statistical blip, where 4 out of 8 shots on targets go in.
Too often I hear "takes 3 chances to score" as a criticism, when really, it's above average.
Looking below, roughly 15% of shots result in a goal, and around 31% of shots on target result in a goal. I've not worked out our %s for this season; if anyone has them please post. And I know this doesn't say anytihng about the type of shot or quality of chance which, of course, is important.
I do agree with the OP though; there will be a day this season that'll be a statistical blip, where 4 out of 8 shots on targets go in.
| League | Total shots | Shots on target | Goals | Conversion rate of total shots | Conversion rate of shots on target |
| La Liga | 341.6 | 166.9 | 51.2 | 14.70% | 31% |
| Premier League | 330.7 | 162 | 50.9 | 15% | 31% |
| Bundesliga | 311.2 | 154.9 | 47.5 | 15% | 31% |
| Serie A | 361.8 | 173.8 | 50.9 | 13.90% | 29% |
| Ligue 1 | 347.8 | 165.4 | 51.7 | 14.50% | 31% |
Steer
Well-known member
Giles and Jones are class and will create a lot of chances.
Our midfield is OK, but runs out of steam and we have no experienced midfield options on the bench. We have been put under the cosh late on when winning and seemingly struggle to retain any control, hence we are conceding late goals and dropping points. For example, if Sunderland's left winger could actually cross a ball, we might have not won that game.
Defense does not fill me with confidence.
I agree that we may well spank someone, but nervy ends to games look likely to continue as we have no Howson jr who we can bring on in Midfield to take the sting out of a game late on.
Our midfield is OK, but runs out of steam and we have no experienced midfield options on the bench. We have been put under the cosh late on when winning and seemingly struggle to retain any control, hence we are conceding late goals and dropping points. For example, if Sunderland's left winger could actually cross a ball, we might have not won that game.
Defense does not fill me with confidence.
I agree that we may well spank someone, but nervy ends to games look likely to continue as we have no Howson jr who we can bring on in Midfield to take the sting out of a game late on.
VestasBoro
Well-known member
I think we'll smash Cardiff. 5 or 6.
MickaelDebevePhenomenal
Well-known member
Before the Sunderland game I'm pretty sure I saw something that said our XG per game is the second highest in the league.
We do have a good xG because we have a lot of chances but they are low probability ones. We have had 102 shots in 8 games, scored 11 (1 O.G. which doesn't count as a shot), 0.1 goals per shot, xG of 13.9, 27 Shots on Target which is 3rd worst in the league.
To score 4 goals when you only have 10 shots that are 0.1xG means you need 40 shots in a game or you have to outperform your xG by 300%. This can happen, you can have a good day where everything goes in but it's more like a good day of finishing might get you 2 instead of 1 rather than 4 or 5.
xG is a tool but it's not perfect (and doesn't claim to be). If you have 2 penalties in a game and no other shots you'd have an xG of 1.52 (0.76 x 2). If you have 10 shots of 0.1xG then the team with 2 penalties but no other chances at all would have a higher xG but the team with 10 shots are the only ones that could have scored 3 or 4.
It's part of decision making. Should we take shots at goal that you would only expect to score 1 in 6/7 or should we try to create chances where you score 1 in 2? If you can create a few 0.5xG chances and several 0.1-0.2xG chances then your chance of scoring 4 or 5 is much higher. We tend to create some quite high xG chances when we do things like get Jones out wide and slide it across to an open man for an open goal but those chances are harder to create than pot shots through bodies from the edge of the box.
I think the fact we have so few shots on target means we are making bad decisions about when to shoot. It's the scattergun approach. I also think we lack composure in front of goal. This isn't a surprise though is it? We've all watched us enough to know we have a team full of players that aren't great in front of goal. Hopefully Muniz playing regularly will change that and take some of the pressure off the others.
xG Stats: https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-football-league-championship-table-2022-23/439
Shooting Stats: https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/shooting/Championship-Stats
VestasBoro
Well-known member
xG is ridiculous, it might work on computer games and for stats, but real world, it counts for zip
When I watched the highlights on tv the day after the sunderland game I was surprised how many decent chances we had.
McGree could have scored 4.
1 - volley into the ground that bounced over the bar.
2 - the goal.
3 - the shot that came after Crook's back heel.
4 - the one he was running on to when Muniz got in his way.
Crook's
1 - the one he hit from fairly central area on the edge of the box which took a nick off the defender and went wide.
2 - the ball that dropped to him after Watmore cut inside and hit a shot which the keeper parried.
Muniz could have scored the header central to the goal on the edge of the 6 yard box which their keeper saved in the second half. He also had a half chance in the first half when Giles crossed the ball in and he headered it over but that was a bit more difficult.
McGree could have scored 4.
1 - volley into the ground that bounced over the bar.
2 - the goal.
3 - the shot that came after Crook's back heel.
4 - the one he was running on to when Muniz got in his way.
Crook's
1 - the one he hit from fairly central area on the edge of the box which took a nick off the defender and went wide.
2 - the ball that dropped to him after Watmore cut inside and hit a shot which the keeper parried.
Muniz could have scored the header central to the goal on the edge of the 6 yard box which their keeper saved in the second half. He also had a half chance in the first half when Giles crossed the ball in and he headered it over but that was a bit more difficult.