Energy prices shot up like a rocket only to tediously drift slowly back down (until the next crisis), now Ofgem are helping with the illusion of falling prices by lowering how they define typical use.
Get in the bin.
There will be a number of reasons for this, which is fair enough I think.
More poeple using Solar, that the grid don't even know about, and I bet they also exclude those with EV's etc (which is fair to do).
The whole of the new development where I live has solar panels, and the grid doesn't even know they're there (or didn't) and there's no feed in tariff available etc. Each house only has 4 panels each, but that's enough to run my house when it's sunny and I WFH. A lot of sunny days I end up putting about 4-10kWh back into the grid (for free), as do my other 30 neighbours, and that juice will go straight into the estate next to us, and the grid are completely unware.
People will have cut use down too, I keep telling our lass to stop using the dryer (when each room is 20 degrees and there's a big shining sun blasting an empty washing line, and I have been a lot more conscious about leaving lights on all over the place.
Same with better insulation, turning radiators down etc, it all really adds up.
Same about different tariffs, loads have gone on smart tariffs and keep a better eye on their consumption, or aim to reduce it.
The "average bill" term they use is completely backwards though, this doesn't really mean anything to anyone. They should just list what rates actually are, what they were and what they will be etc. Even if they just said 50% higher than 2019 etc, going to 20% higher than 2019 etc. It needs a recognisable base/ reference point and before covid and the war etc is probably the best comparison.
Ofgem, the grid and the government need to do a hell of a lot more to make more people aware of smart tariffs and get people educated, peoples bills and the grid could be managed far better if people knew when the peak times were. Many people can halve their bills now, and don't even know it. Loads of people are unaware they're paying rates way above the cap, getting knocked down back to the cap, and the taxpayer picking up the bill for the ignorance of it.