No Covid-19 deaths in Spain yesterday

spanishman

Well-known member
This was published yesterday, about Sunday....

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 31

They report 96 cases diagnosed yesterday. First time below 100 daily cases since March 6. But with a weekend effect more than likely. The case multiplication rate drops back to 1.003.

We continue with a blackout on the number of deaths per day, while they continue to make their internal consolidations. I think we are the only country in the world that is following this "strategy".

And of course, then what happens happens. In the same way that some Spanish media speak of 1-2 deaths per day (due to the confusion provided by the Health data), this disinformation is transferred abroad, which they believe is no longer deceased. On the day that Spain gives its updated figure, which will be several hundred people who died suddenly, since we are still in a range of 35-60 newspapers, due to the record they give in the autonomous communities, their confusion will be capital.

An example of a widely distributed tweet (4,500 RTs) in which they make us the country with the fewest deaths per day.

@MikeCordingley

Deaths yesterday across Europe:

Spain 2
Italy 87
Germany 24
France 52
Turkey 28
Belgium 42
Sweden 84
Portugal 14
Ireland 6
Poland 13
Romania 13
Hungary 8
Netherlands 28
UK 324
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
Be wary of this info. My Spanish stats man says he thinks they are just not reporting them straight away. Then they will announce a number of days worth of deaths in one go.

I think your stats guy is reporting a method of interpretation that he chooses. Sur is reporting a method of interpretation that they choose. I doubt either is definitive.

What is beyond doubt (for clarification) is that by the method of interpretation that Sur chooses, and has been reporting on since the pandemic began, yesterday was the first day without any reported covid-19 deaths for 90 days - that will do for me
 

hopesoboro

Well-known member
This was published yesterday, about Sunday....

Google translation:

Data Sunday May 31

They report 96 cases diagnosed yesterday. First time below 100 daily cases since March 6. But with a weekend effect more than likely. The case multiplication rate drops back to 1.003.

We continue with a blackout on the number of deaths per day, while they continue to make their internal consolidations. I think we are the only country in the world that is following this "strategy".

And of course, then what happens happens. In the same way that some Spanish media speak of 1-2 deaths per day (due to the confusion provided by the Health data), this disinformation is transferred abroad, which they believe is no longer deceased. On the day that Spain gives its updated figure, which will be several hundred people who died suddenly, since we are still in a range of 35-60 newspapers, due to the record they give in the autonomous communities, their confusion will be capital.

An example of a widely distributed tweet (4,500 RTs) in which they make us the country with the fewest deaths per day.

@MikeCordingley

Deaths yesterday across Europe:

Spain 2
Italy 87
Germany 24
France 52
Turkey 28
Belgium 42
Sweden 84
Portugal 14
Ireland 6
Poland 13
Romania 13
Hungary 8
Netherlands 28
UK 324
Hope someone is gonna explain that list to me - in a way that will have me feeling optimistic!
 

Sheriff_John_Bunnell_ret

Well-known member
I posted about this in another thread. Spain went from having 50 to 110 odd deaths per day one week, to single figure deaths the following. With a couple of days where they gave very high death rates.
This doesn't echo the data from any other country as far as I could see where there has been a very gradual decline rather than falling off a cliff as it had done in Spain.
So I assumed that it was either worldometer getting their stats wrong or a change in how deaths are being recorded.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Hope someone is gonna explain that list to me - in a way that will have me feeling optimistic!
My stats guy says the Spanish are playing silly buggers with the reporting. Not sure. However I think it is the way various autonomous regions in Spain are reporting things differently. So for the last few days there has not been many new deaths reported in Spain. However, at some point he thinks we will play catch up. Announcing a number of deaths on the same day. When they have actually taken place over a period of time.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
I posted about this in another thread. Spain went from having 50 to 110 odd deaths per day one week, to single figure deaths the following. With a couple of days where they gave very high death rates.
This doesn't echo the data from any other country as far as I could see where there has been a very gradual decline rather than falling off a cliff as it had done in Spain.
So I assumed that it was either worldometer getting their stats wrong or a change in how deaths are being recorded.

That's the thing isn't it - there are so many different ways of reporting - that's why I just follow the reported results from one source, which in my case is the regional paper - you have consistency at least
 

hopesoboro

Well-known member
My stats guy says the Spanish are playing silly buggers with the reporting. Not sure. However I think it is the way various autonomous regions in Spain are reporting things differently. So for the last few days there has not been many new deaths reported in Spain. However, at some point he thinks we will play catch up. Announcing a number of deaths on the same day. When they have actually taken place over a period of time.
Cheers Spanish. Is our figure really bad or is that another case of dodgy reporting?
 

borolad259

Administrator
Staff member
It's similar in Sweden. There is reporting lag because the deaths are recorded by the regions. It takes around 10 days for some to be reported. So Sweden has had 3 or 4 days with next to no deaths reported, but today it was 64.... these were spread over about 10 days. The trend in both countries is downward though. It's very noticeable in Sweden. Because it is now making its way into the rural North, I expect this to be a long tail, as those communities are very spread out. As I have said elsewhere, my nearest neighbour is about 200 metres away. And there are only about 6 houses in my hamlet. The disease will spread very slowly, if at all.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
Here is his comment about the official Spanish death figures from his article today (for the period up to yesterday):

Google translation -

"Still without news regarding the situation of deceased. It remains stagnant at the figure of 4 days ago."
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
No coronavirus deaths reported in Malaga province so far this week

Only 94 coronavirus patients still in hospital on Thursday in the whole Andalusian region, which is 97 per cent fewer than 30 March, the peak of the pandemic in southern Spain, when there were 2,708 in hospital.

And we move to Phase 3 with the rest of Andalucia on Monday (y)

http://www.surinenglish.com/local/2...fatalites-reported-malaga-20200604202030.html

Good news - let's hope it continues
 

spanishman

Well-known member
No coronavirus deaths reported in Malaga province so far this week

Only 94 coronavirus patients still in hospital on Thursday in the whole Andalusian region, which is 97 per cent fewer than 30 March, the peak of the pandemic in southern Spain, when there were 2,708 in hospital.

And we move to Phase 3 with the rest of Andalucia on Monday (y)

http://www.surinenglish.com/local/2...fatalites-reported-malaga-20200604202030.html

Good news - let's hope it continues
While things are a lot better in many parts of Spain the figures for deaths are being skewed. Due to changes in reporting methods. So the death figures are known to be incorrect in some regions. Not sure about Andalucia figures.
 

spanishman

Well-known member
For example:

Daily info from my preferred Spanish stats guy

Note that a multiplication rate of 1.0 means approximately 0 events (cases or deaths) when comparing today`s 4 day average with yesterday's.

Note that this is the data from yesterday - due to timing changes to the release of data by the government

NOTE: He continues to be unhappy with the lack of central reporting of deaths in Spain

Google translation:

Data from Wednesday, June 3

Remember: the survey on confinement and climbing is active, your participation is appreciated. Access here to the questionnaire.

Today Fernando Simón has explained the situation regarding the series of total deceased and its stagnation in recent days. My verdict is severe, I am sorry: what has been done this week is a real bungling in terms of crisis communication. They should have a knowledgeable communication advisor on their team (no, I'm not available).

Let's go first to the case data. 219 cases are reported in the last 24 hours, 82 more than yesterday and 148 more than the minimum reached two days ago. There was a weekend effect. Madrid is responsible for 50% of today's cases, with 112. It follows the open focus of Aragon, it seems, with 20 new cases. Simón points out that now we have reached almost all suspected cases, so many of the new cases are not medically worrisome, as they are minor cases. As Simón correctly points out, it should not be inferred from this that the virus is less malignant than before, but that now cases are identified that were not previously contemplated to do the test even if they requested it. The multiplication rate remains at 1.002.

The mess of accounting for the deceased in recent days. Because it is a mess, in which Fernando Simón's team, the CCAES, has gotten totally unnecessary. The basic situation, which Simon has finally said explicitly today, and which is the interpretation we gave here from the beginning: the data on the deceased are frozen, not because there are no deaths, but because we are in a period of transition towards a new system of communication of data. If he had said it clearly enough a week ago, we would not have the national or international press or our Prime Minister saying that in Spain there are no longer deceased people with coronaviruses. Because that is not the reality although Simón has been extremely ambiguous throughout the week.

To the ambiguity about the meaning of the series has been added a movement of confusion, which now understood becomes even more incomprehensible that they have applied that decision. That instead of having the series totally frozen (and clearly indicating that it is frozen), they have been adding one or two deaths one day. What corresponds to those deceased? Only and exclusively to those who died the previous day and have been registered deceased with coronavirus that same previous day.

They will tell me that it should be the majority of cases that are counted on the same day. Well, no, it is a minority that is not representative of the situation, and today Simon has finally explained why: for the new data monitoring and communication system that the communities must apply since May 11. As you will see, everything is a little sad or tragicomic, but it is what it is. Since that date, a personal file system has been introduced that allows to follow exactly the entire process of a person since they are declared positive for coronavirus. Therefore, the starting point is in most cases since May in primary care centers, and another percentage has its origin in hospital centers (for example, emergency care or review before another medical act). All the alterations that occur in the profile of the infected person are included in his personal file: if he enters the hospital, if he moves to the ICU and if he finally dies. It is assumed that this is a simple formality and that all this is collected almost in real time in the file (which is supposed to be digital, but it is not clear that it is in all the autonomous communities). Well no: because someone has to enter the date on which the change occurs in the personal file.

And it is there, friends, where all the problems begin (I am not saying it, Simon has told it). The theory is that for all the cards that are opened from May 11 with the new system, the delays are slight, and the card is updated with a maximum delay of 48 hours (fabric, despite everything) . These updated data are those that correspond to most of the information that is now collected on cases, hospitalization and ICU in the last 7 days. And they are the figures that also correspond to the famous number of "deceased with death date in the last 7 days". These are the cases in which they have the entire file completed, from the beginning of the infection until their death. Today 63 people are killed by 34 yesterday. People did not understand that the number of people counted in the week increased by 29, but that the number of total deaths only increased by 1. That is the consequence of what we have today and that we interpreted this way for days: because we have the chaos of that it is not well explained that the number of total deaths is frozen until we move on to the new system, and to “facilitate” that no one understands what is happening, it is not completely frozen but rather leaves an open thread, that of the deceased yesterday with all the completed form.

And how can they not be able to do this with all the deceased since May 11, which are many, but correspond to a daily figure of about 100 at the beginning and probably about 30-50 now? Well, because they have to rebuild their personal file with the new system, for all those who got it before May 11. At the moment, it is the vast majority of those who die now. And they have to do it not only for these hundreds who died in May, but for the 28,000 from the start. This leads to the tragicomic situation that the new deceased are not communicated, although evidently they have their date of death, because their date of infection and hospitalization has not yet been entered in their personal file. Simón says that the centers are overwhelmed with this task, and that he hoped to have the new system fully activated in a week, but that it will take longer. And in this overflow of work, it seems that they have not considered it a priority to treat the files of those who died after May 11, in order to continue informing public opinion.

For 3 weeks, Simón has been saying that the new notification system will be a great advance for analysis because the data is much more rigorous, since the traces of each of the infected and their evolution are dated, with dates. That is undoubted, it is sure that it is necessary and it will undoubtedly be very valuable to manage both the departure of this first wave and possible re-sprouts. But that this transition of systems has been made leaving the death situation silenced with the traditional notification system that Spain has followed until May 11 and that all the countries of the world follow to date is a great botch in terms of public communication crisis communication. It is a fright.

When they manage to do their compilation work, we will finally have the number of new deceased that has been muted since May 25. Please, do it as soon as possible so as not to disconcert public opinion any further.

Meanwhile, the recommendation is clear to the press: it must be explicitly said that the death toll is frozen until further notice, and that only information on new cases can be reported.

I am convinced that Fernando Simón and / or his team do not have any kind of political calculation in this bizarre transition exercise, but simply do not have the crisis communication aspect integrated as an essential part of their mission, beyond being as clear as they can in what they see relevant. From the Ministry of Health, from the Government, which does have communication experts, they should address this issue in depth. They need communication experts on their team, at least in times of health crisis.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
While things are a lot better in many parts of Spain the figures for deaths are being skewed. Due to changes in reporting methods. So the death figures are known to be incorrect in some regions. Not sure about Andalucia figures.

I know you prefer “your” guy‘s take on everything, but both facts in my post are unarguable - there have been no deaths recorded in Malaga province in the last week, and there are only 94 coronavirus patients in hospital in the whole of Andalucía.

This cannot be anything except good news
 

spanishman

Well-known member
I know you prefer “your” guy‘s take on everything, but both facts in my post are unarguable - there have been no deaths recorded in Malaga province in the last week, and there are only 94 coronavirus patients in hospital in the whole of Andalucía.

This cannot be anything except good news
I accept that the statement about cases is correct according to the government.

However the Spanish government has admitted they are not counting deaths correctly at present. They have also not done so for a period of time. So the death figures in the newspapers for some time are the figures being quoted by the government. However the government has acknowledged that they are incorrect. As at some point in the not too distant future they will be reporting delayed deaths that they are not reporting in real time. So on days where 0 deaths have been reported in the initial figures by the government the figures are likely to change retrospectively in the future.

The point being made is that the government is not making this point about upcoming corrections clear when they are announcing deaths.
 

Malaguena

Well-known member
I accept that the statement about cases is correct according to the government.

However the Spanish government has admitted they are not counting deaths correctly at present. They have also not done so for a period of time. So the death figures in the newspapers for some time are the figures being quoted by the government. However the government has acknowledged that they are incorrect. As at some point in the not too distant future they will be reporting delayed deaths that they are not reporting in real time. So on days where 0 deaths have been reported in the initial figures by the government the figures are likely to change retrospectively in the future.

The point being made is that the government is not making this point about upcoming corrections clear when they are announcing deaths.

Interesting article today highlighting the "increased deaths" figure

http://www.surinenglish.com/national/202006/05/data-analysis-suggests-spain-20200605094639-v.html
 
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