Mid-Week Championship games

[Laughing]

It depends on what value you put on a point doesn't it.

Out of interest, how many points is your weekly stake?

1 point = 1 grand. Started off with a point = 100 pound and built from there. This seasons training, was 17 thousand games and it went live on the 18th of November, so just under a month and it is 14.63 points up so I am really looking forward to seeing if it maintains that level of success.

Worth mentioning I only trade the under 2.5 goals market. The w/l/d is too erratic.

It sounds like a lot of money, but it has taken 4 years of coding, debugging and tweaking to get where I am. Just pulling in the data for a saturday then running the algorithms takes about 4 hours on a Friday. I also pay 60 quid a month for access to automated API's and data. Also it is boring, it reduces football to number crunching.

I never bet on boro, even if the game is picked by one of my algorithms, it ruins the game experience.

 

[B_G]

1 point = 1 grand. Started off with a point = 100 pound and built from there. This seasons training, was 17 thousand games and it went live on the 18th of November, so just under a month and it is 14.63 points up so I am really looking forward to seeing if it maintains that level of success.

Worth mentioning I only trade the under 2.5 goals market. The w/l/d is too erratic.

It sounds like a lot of money, but it has taken 4 years of coding, debugging and tweaking to get where I am. Just pulling in the data for a saturday then running the algorithms takes about 4 hours on a Friday. I also pay 60 quid a month for access to automated API's and data. Also it is boring, it reduces football to number crunching.

I never bet on boro, even if the game is picked by one of my algorithms, it ruins the game experience.

Do you bet the singles or do you bet multiples?
14k profit in 4 months is a lovely little second income isn't it. Have you had any problem withdrawing? Betting sites often either cap the stake or put blockers in place for withdrawing winnings especially if they suspect a system is being used. Shower of b4st4rds,

As a recovering compulsive gambler it's not something I could ever take part in but love to see someone find a way to beat the bookie.

 

[Laughing]

Do you bet the singles or do you bet multiples?
14k profit in 4 months is a lovely little second income isn't it. Have you had any problem withdrawing? Betting sites often either cap the stake or put blockers in place for withdrawing winnings especially if they suspect a system is being used. Shower of b4st4rds,

As a recovering compulsive gambler it's not something I could ever take part in but love to see someone find a way to beat the bookie.

I only use betfair so no worries on limitations.

I never back multiples, I either straight back the under 2.5 goals or, if I am watching the game, and the correct score prices look tempting I will back the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and trade out as the game progressess. You have bigger profits, but you do risk more capital.

I wouldn't recommend betting to anyone who isn't very, very disciplined.

 

[GingerTravel]

I only use betfair so no worries on limitations.

I never back multiples, I either straight back the under 2.5 goals or, if I am watching the game, and the correct score prices look tempting I will back the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 and trade out as the game progressess. You have bigger profits, but you do risk more capital.

I wouldn't recommend betting to anyone who isn't very, very disciplined.

Is your algorithm just Championship? My guess would be the Premier League is more predictable but less profitable, certainly in W/L/D terms

 

[Laughing]

Is your algorithm just Championship? My guess would be the Premier League is more predictable but less profitable, certainly in W/L/D terms

I cover most of the european leagues, plus brazil.

The higher class the football the worse the overs/unders becomes but the more accurate the wld becomes. typically less than 3 games in the prem qualify each week and this holds true for the top italian, spanish, german and french leagues. Dutch league is awful for unders.

The biggest single factor is the period in the season. I don't get involved for the first 8 games and I don't get involved the last 5 weeks of the season, though I do record results until the last game of the season, but every season you see a drop off in profit towards the end of the season. I suspect this is due to teams that "need" to win so more goals are scored and the under 2.5 suffers.

As I said above, it reduces football to manipulating numbers and is very boring.

This started off as an intellectual challenge to see if it could be done. I enjoyed that bit but don't much like running the algorithms.

the data I gather I have shown below

Date

KO

Country

League

Home

Away

Gap

Home GF

Home GA

Toal Home

Away GF

Away GA

Total Away

Total Goals

Home Half Time Goals

Away Half Time Goals

Half Time Goals

First Goal Home

First Goal Away

Total First Goal

> 3 Goals Home (8)

>3 Goals Home (4)

>3 Goals Away (8)

>3 Goals Away (4)

Total >3 Goals (8)

Total >3 Goals (4)

Home % Above 3

Away % Above 3

Bet

Fixture Id

Half Time

Full Time

Goal Times

Home ID

Away ID

Season ID

1-1 Home

1-1 Away

Win

Result

<3 Return

Return

Home LP

Away LP

Home PPG

Away PPG

Home GF

Away GF

Home GA

Away GA

Home DiffPos

Away DiffPos

Under 2.5 Deepnet 8K

PHI Corr

Price Unders

Return

Returns C/O

HDA 17K Ensem

PHI Corr

Price Unders

Return Unders

Retuns C/O

Under 2.5 Deepnet 17k

PHI

returns C/O

Price

Returns

HDA 17k

Conf

error

confidence

 

[Laughing]

Some appetizer footie tonight whilst we wait for the main course tomorrow.

Thought I would post my algorithms thoughts on the games - Results

Blackburn Home win Under 2.5 goals Home win over 2.5 goals
Huddersfield Away win Under 2.5 goals Away win over 2.5 goals
Rotherham Away win goals could go either way Away win over 2.5 goals
Stoke Home win Under 2.5 goals Draw under 2.5 goals
Watford Away win Over 2.5 goals Away win over 2,5 goals
Sunderland Away win Over 2.5 goals Yeaaahhhh Home win under 2.5 goals
Cardiff Home win Under 2.5 goals Away win under 2.5 goals
Coventry Away win Under 2.5 goals Draw under 2.5 goals
Leicester Home Win Over 2.5 goals Home win over 2.5 goals
Norwhich Home win Over 2.5 goals Home win over 2.5 goals
QPR Away win Under 2.5 goals Draw under 2.5 goals
Boro Home win Over 2.5 goals Double yeaahhhh Away win over 2.5 goals

Take this with a pinch of salt, whilst the algorithm is accurate, it gets it wrong plenty often enough.

Results for the midweek games above

H/D/A 6 from 12 50%
overs unders 8 from 11 73%