Just Seen the Covid 2nd Wave Projections

1finny

1finny

Well-known member
Can’t post for obvious reasons.
It comes with the usual caveats of scientific uncertainty but, in short, there is a lot at stake.

For North East and Yorks
2nd wave expected early August
If lockdown relaxation is successful - 3000 deaths (almost same as 1st wave)
If lockdown relaxation is unsuccessful - 8000 deaths

Using same success or not
Number of cases will be either 4% (2% at first peak) or 14%

Stay alert.
 
This is why the government willingly undermining their own policy is such an idiotic approach.
When it is paramount that the public understands how irresponsible actions can have very grave consequences they are more intent on defending an advisors position than thinking about the greater ongoing threat to the public and society. Sacking him now is pointless as the damage is already done to the message.
 
I’ve also noticed that we have gone from reporting the R number as 0.4 to 0.9 but now officially we are 0.7 to 0.9 which leads me to think we must be well over the 1 Mark but the govt refuses to change that 0.9 as their mantra all along had been as long as we are below 1.

it will be the sane with the global comparison sheets that magic R data will soon be dropped.
 
zorro_mfc said:
I’ve also noticed that we have gone from reporting the R number as 0.4 to 0.9 but now officially we are 0.7 to 0.9 which leads me to think we must be well over the 1 Mark but the govt refuses to change that 0.9 as their mantra all along had been as long as we are below 1.

it will be the sane with the global comparison sheets that magic R data will soon be dropped.
Click to expand...
There was some talk a few weeks ago the national R could be as low as 0.4 but Carehomes are through the roof bad which pulls it back up.
 
The minister on BBC this morning referenced 0.4 to 0.9 then backtracked to say currently it is 0.7 to 0.9

Daft thing is - the only way to accurately know the R number is having effective track and trace. Without that it’s guess work with, no doubt some modelling.
The margin for error when you are playing this game isn’t that big....
 
I have also noticed 1 is apparently no longer the scary number it originally was as 3 is now pushed as the doomsday figure.
 
Its the latest Pandemic Modelling that the UK Funeral industry has been relying on from pre lockdown. Comes out after every ‘significant’ change to policy.
 
I know this means more deaths but I see 4-14% a positive surely? I assumed it would be much worse. Admittedly this was just going on the Spanish flu second wave which, I know is an entirely different virus
 
It's all relative, so you need to know the current incidence of infections to put R into perspective.

The ONS estimates that there are currently around 135,000 people with Covid-19 in England. So if R is 1, there would also be approx. 135,000 next week and so on. The also estimate this means around 60,000 new infections per week, which is felt to be manageable for the NHS.

As a very rough estimate, at the peak there might have been around 675,000 people with the virus. If that was the case and R was 1, that would mean there would be 675,000 the following week and so on. That would mean around 300,000 new infections every week, which would be a completely different story.
 
All wrong, we should have strangled it by locking down for a further month
Yet as bad as the government have handled it, I still think a part of the general public have been so relaxed in this & at times couldn't give two hoots it won't affect me attitude
Yet some people are still OK to have a football match played for their fix while those numbers die
 
Erimus74 said:
All wrong, we should have strangled it by locking down for a further month
Yet as bad as the government have handled it, I still think a part of the general public have been so relaxed in this & at times couldn't give two hoots it won't affect me attitude
Yet some people are still OK to have a football match played for their fix while those numbers die
Click to expand...

Don’t get why you keep mentioning people wanting to watch football. If they can delivery it safely which is what they intend to do then what is so bad about it? Football is a release for a lot of people , me included. Aslong as it is done safely and I carry on my life how I have being , following the guidelines my conscience will be clear. It is awful what is happening on a daily basis but any sign of hope and normality is a good sign surely
 
Erimus74 said:
It was only last week when it was posted a 2nd wave in November
Click to expand...
If we have no idea on how to predict the consequences of opening up the economy, schools and increased size of gatherings versus a maximum 15% reduction in infections from track and trace, we shouldn't be doing it. Hopefully we have predicted the consequences correctly. There is some hope that outside, infections are much lower and people will be spending more time outside till September.
 
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