Ivan Toney

#4
Feck did not realize they payed 10 million you would expect a few goals for that, way out of our league, although still cheaper than Assombalonga
 

BoroFur

Well-known member
#6
They paid £5m rising to £10m.
Needs to be put in context with the sale of Ollie Watkins to Villa who went for £28m rising to £33m.

Toney and Watkins are both 24.

We can only dream of doing deals like that.
 

since1970

Active member
#11
It appears a certain self-proclaimed, gargantuan outfit from the Scottish borders look like being one of the biggest losers with regards to Toney revenue! :D
 
#12
They’re very good at spotting a player, Toney was probably the easiest of the bunch. But in the last few years theyve made a lot of money from sales. Watkins, Maupay, Andre Gray, Scott Hogan Will be pushing £70m in total. Then you’ve got Mepham and Konsa for over £20m plus whatever Benrahma ends up costing West Ham. Very smart club!
 

Statto1

Active member
#13
If you have a decent scouting and coaching team any club could do what they do (bit harder up north mind), it's the old line of got to spend money to make money, but need to invest it in the future, rather than blow it on the now. After a couple of years if you keep doing the same, the development of the team (and bank balance) makes it well worth it.
  1. Pick the right players (typically strikers, which increase in value quickly)
  2. Play a system that suits your high value assets (Brentford do this, we don't or didn't)
  3. They absolutely must have a proven performance to a set level, or be a player where the reward outstrips the risk
  4. Pick them young (so they either go up in ability/ stay the same, ether way, you won't lose, or lose much)
  5. Keep them until they reach a suitable level (whether that's 1,2 or 3 years, but turnaround has to be quick)
  6. Sell them, don't mess about trying to keep players that are too good for you/ your division
  7. When discussing incoming transfers give the player a get out if they improve, more players will come if they know they can leave to go to the prem, with a heavily increased fee
  8. The scout, recruitment team and coaches should be one of the highest paid and best reputation members of the staff. No point paying 25 players 30k a week if you're going to have a £500 a week scout or just some ex player with no proven record coaching. This but is beyond basic, it's so ridiculous. It's just weighing up what you're spending against what return you're going to get for that, and if you can better spend that money elsewhere.
It's a bit like buying any asset, be it a house, a car or some shares, the purchase price doesn't really mean a lot, it's the difference in what you buy for and what you sell for that matters most, and the risk of it going to 0 or multiplying 100 times over (effectively like an equity value calculation in poker, risk, reward, probability). Also factoring in for finance costs (which is really important).

See, Brentford paid £5m for Toney, plus £5m addons? If he didn't score a single goal this year, then they would still get £3-4m for him, providing he never turned into an absolute donkey (but a scout could easily notice this). But what if he scores 10, what is he worth then? £8m? What if he scores 20? £25m?

Even if all those had the same probability:
33% * 3.5m = 1.15m
33% * 8m = 2.64m
33% * 25m = 8.25m
So, 99% = 12.04m.

Basically if you do that 100 times then it's effectively a 7m average increase on the basic fee, or a 240% return. Obviously this is the simple way of looking at it, for a demonstration. There's other things like risk of him being injured and his insurance payout, or what if they get in the prem, what would he and the prem payout be worth.
 

Cardiffdaffs

Well-known member
#14
They’re very good at spotting a player, Toney was probably the easiest of the bunch. But in the last few years theyve made a lot of money from sales. Watkins, Maupay, Andre Gray, Scott Hogan Will be pushing £70m in total. Then you’ve got Mepham and Konsa for over £20m plus whatever Benrahma ends up costing West Ham. Very smart club!
If hes THAT good its a wonder a Premier League club didnt spot this talent. Or is not the done thing to buy a 3rd tier striker for the Prem.
 

parmoboy

Well-known member
#17
I wouldn't say they unearthed a gem. I remember myself suggesting we should be in for him a while back as I found out he was into the last year of his contract. I remember thinking Peterborough might be forced into selling him at a low price
 

Jonny Ingbar

Well-known member
#18
Plenty of clubs wanted him, including us, but few could afford to pay the asking price.
I like Brentford as a club, but they've spent pretty heavily over the last few seasons, obviously financed by the players they've sold at a profit.
Probably the perfect model for a football club, but then they're still an EFL club, so maybe not?
 
#19
If hes THAT good its a wonder a Premier League club didnt spot this talent. Or is not the done thing to buy a 3rd tier striker for the Prem.
If Ollie Watkins is that good why didnt someone in the Prem sign him from Exeter for £1.8m? If Maupay is that good why didnt anyone sign him for £1.6m when Brentford did?
 

S7DiscoDown

Well-known member
#20
I would imagine 90% of players Brentford sign will have fans googling saying 'who the fecks that'. They do find players from some weird and wonderful leagues and teams.

You certainly wouldn't say the unearthed a gem in Toney. He cost 10mil (think 5mil upfront) and they do pay good wages. His goal scoring record was there for all clubs to see. Unlike someone like Neil Maupay who they 'found'.

I imagine if we had paid 3mil to Exeter for Watkins then everyone would be melttig down as over paying😂.

One thing Brentford do have is a an eye for a forward. They do keep buying them and moving on for a fecking fortune.
 
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