Billy Horner
Well-known member
In September 1992, a few months after winning the General Election, the Conservative Party was still enjoying a lead in the opinion polls. Then, John Major's government took us crashing out of the ERM (having burnt a few billion quid in the process) in an event which became known as Black Wednesday.
The Conservative government lost its credibility and, from that moment, never recovered. Every event and policy initiative from September 1992 onwards was viewed through the prism of incompetence and a party that had been in power for too long. At the next General Election, despite a booming economy, relatively low interest rates and stable inflation, the Labour Party (led by a lawyer) swept to victory in the biggest landslide since the war.
Public confidence in this goverment's handling of the coronavirus crisis has been eroding for weeks, but the Prime Minister's personal popularity had not seemed to have been damaged. Until now.
Apparently, his approval rating has droppped 20 points in the space of a weekend and is now in negative territory. Following the disastrous press conferences held by both the PM and Cummings over the weekend, even more people now think Cummings should go than did on Friday. I would expect the next polling on public confidence in the government's handling of the crisis to fall off a cliff and for the overall opinion polls to begin to move away from the Conservatives and towards Labour.
Obviously, there are differences between 1992 and today. Back then, the government's majority was only 22 meaning it could be held to ransom by its own backbenchers. Labour had won 273 seats (and Scotland) at the previous election, rather than the 202 they are on now. Also, I don't think anyone would claim that John Major had the same charisma and cut through with the public as Boris Johnson.
But goverments tend to lose elections over a long period of time. First public trust in them erodes, then collapses and then people look at the opposition and decide whether they could do a better job. It always seems to require a 'moment'.
Could the events of the weekend prove to be Boris' ERM moment?
The Conservative government lost its credibility and, from that moment, never recovered. Every event and policy initiative from September 1992 onwards was viewed through the prism of incompetence and a party that had been in power for too long. At the next General Election, despite a booming economy, relatively low interest rates and stable inflation, the Labour Party (led by a lawyer) swept to victory in the biggest landslide since the war.
Public confidence in this goverment's handling of the coronavirus crisis has been eroding for weeks, but the Prime Minister's personal popularity had not seemed to have been damaged. Until now.
Apparently, his approval rating has droppped 20 points in the space of a weekend and is now in negative territory. Following the disastrous press conferences held by both the PM and Cummings over the weekend, even more people now think Cummings should go than did on Friday. I would expect the next polling on public confidence in the government's handling of the crisis to fall off a cliff and for the overall opinion polls to begin to move away from the Conservatives and towards Labour.
Obviously, there are differences between 1992 and today. Back then, the government's majority was only 22 meaning it could be held to ransom by its own backbenchers. Labour had won 273 seats (and Scotland) at the previous election, rather than the 202 they are on now. Also, I don't think anyone would claim that John Major had the same charisma and cut through with the public as Boris Johnson.
But goverments tend to lose elections over a long period of time. First public trust in them erodes, then collapses and then people look at the opposition and decide whether they could do a better job. It always seems to require a 'moment'.
Could the events of the weekend prove to be Boris' ERM moment?