Im worried 😟

[festa5]

Your last point is particularly valid. It can also cause the manager to doubt the approach though I would hope that Wilder is experrienced enough to know it will work itself out. Remember Monk buying players for a 433 then abandoning the entire approach?

Yep, I think so. He's had bad starts before too, so not like this is a new scenario for him.

One of the many things that irritated me about Monk. It might not have worked, but after working on it all pre-season and spending circa £50m bringing in players to play to play it, you surely give it longer than he did for it to click.

If the manager doesn't have the courage of his own convictions then how can you possibly expect the players to buy into it? Think it told us a lot about his ability (or lack of) to do the job.

 

[Rofesleg]

I wasn't aware there was a problem?

Sorry, a couple of times you have mentioned that the stats are no use to you because you couldn't get it to work as a predictive tool.
I thought it was a problem for you.

 

[BoroMart]

Your example on saturday highlights what is wrong with xG. That is not a 1 in 33 chance. I don't even think its a 1 in 50. It's probably a 1 in 100. It's opinion based.

it's not opinion based it is based on specific measurable metrics, now you can argue that the human eye and mind can deceive people into making errors, but if 100 people are given the rules 98 of them will come up with the same score 98% of the time. It's far more accurate than counting a team with 10 shots from 30 yards as having more chances than 3 shots from 6 yards.

You are using your qualified view for that being a 1% chance, not a rule set that ensures a consistent result. He had an unchallenged shot from 20 yards, yes it took a great shot and a lot of luck in that the keeper was unsighted, but 3% doesn't seem off.

 

[VestasBoro]

3 hard games now aswell.
All the talk about strikers needed but when we play Mcnair, Howson and Mowatt in a midfield 3 who are all basically the same player with very little creativity and flair, think we need to address that.

 

[Andy_W]

it's not opinion based it is based on specific measurables, now you can argue that the human eye and mind can deceive people into making errors, but if 100 people are given the rules 98 of them will come up with the same score 98% of the time. It's far more accurate than counting a team with 10 shots from 30 yards as having more chances than 3 shots from 6 yards.

Exactly, if you offered me three chances from 6 yards, and that was it all game, nothing else, I would probably take that 90% of the time, depending on who we were playing. You're practically guaranteed 2-3 goals from it. Against crap teams at home, I would probably want more, we've not played any of these yet.

If I was offered 20 shots from 30 yards and it was all we were getting all game I'd say no thanks mate.

If I was offered 1 no 6-yarder, 10 around the box and 10 from 30 yards I'd still probably reject that in favour of the 3 no 6-yarders.

Edit - The 22 shots in the last example is probably less xG than 3 no 6-yarders, but the problem is if you're only getting 3 no 6-yarders and nowt else, then that's a lot of the game when you're not creating chances, which means the opposition possibly is if they're good. i.e a lower xG for in that instance may be better, as you're probably not giving as much xG against. A team having 22 shots probably isn't having 22 against etc.

 

[BoroMart]

3 hard games now aswell.
All the talk about strikers needed but when we play Mcnair, Howson and Mowatt in a midfield 3 who are all basically the same player with very little creativity and flair, think we need to address that.

They can create all of them, but there is a lack of pace, a lack of dribbling ability. Personally I wouldn't ever play McNair midfield, he's too slow to turn, ad he isn't a 360 degree player. Much better coming out from the back with it where he doesn't need the awareness of what's behind so much.

Howson would be better at 8 than CMD, because he hasn't got the pace and energy to cover the negative transition/break. The problem with that is both he and Mowatt are similar, comfortable on the ball, but not really going to dart into the box and add numbers in there.

But I think we might end up stuck with that conundrum. Maybe we switch from Mowatt and Crooks at 8 and McGree and Howson.

 

[Andy_W]

I would largely agree with this. We probably don't have the number of points we deserve at the moment. The flip side is, if this continued, you would start to wonder if it was bad luck or bad judgement. We are nowhere near this point at the moment.

Yeah, which is why I don't get why people are having meltdowns thinking we're playing crap? There are some games where we've not been our best, but still been better than the opposition away (a mix of sides) and been better than two very good sides at home.

The points total looks bad just looking at the league table, but doesn't in any way reflect who we've played, how well we've played or how the games have gone with respect to bad decisions and what goals the opposition have scored and what we haven't scored.

Of course, if we had some better strikers we might have scored more, but Wilder couldn't pick one as we didn't have one. We've had a player come back out from the cold (or warm in Greece), who then got injured, two lads who are prospects and haven't been here more than two weeks and Watmore who's never going to get a hat full.

 

[Laughing]

it's not opinion based it is based on specific measurable metrics, now you can argue that the human eye and mind can deceive people into making errors, but if 100 people are given the rules 98 of them will come up with the same score 98% of the time. It's far more accurate than counting a team with 10 shots from 30 yards as having more chances than 3 shots from 6 yards.

You are using your qualified view for that being a 1% chance, not a rule set that ensures a consistent result. He had an unchallenged shot from 20 yards, yes it took a great shot and a lot of luck in that the keeper was unsighted, but 3% doesn't seem off.

From a player who doesn't score. The formula doesn't use that to factor into the xg. A watcher makes an assessment, that in itself, by definition makes it subjective.

On a side note opta have released xg 2.0 at the end of last season because version 1 was, pretty much by their own admission crap.
In fact they produced some comparisons between the 2 with differrences in many circumstances being huge. One of opta's own examples gave a difference of 0.23 with version 2.0 against 0.8 with version 1.0. The chance was missed, btw.

I will be doing more analysis on v 2.0 this season, I don't have sufficiet data yet.

Looking at the league table in the championship, admittedly only 5 games in the only team in the top 5 of the table, that also is in the top 5 of the xG stat is Sheff Utd. Looking at all of last season, only the top two clubs showed a strong correlation between xG and league position at the top end of the table. Interestingly enough the bottom of the table had a good corrrelation.

So to summarise, I have no idea how good xG is this season, it is yet to pan out. Last season, even opta said the stat wasn't very good and, again by their own admission, it was divisive.

Not massively interested in debating round in circles on a subject I spend about 30 hours a week doing analysis on.

 

[Laughing]

Yeah, which is why I don't get why people are having meltdowns thinking we're playing crap? There are some games where we've not been our best, but still been better than the opposition away (a mix of sides) and been better than two very good sides at home.

The points total looks bad just looking at the league table, but doesn't in any way reflect who we've played, how well we've played or how the games have gone with respect to bad decisions and what goals the opposition have scored and what we haven't scored.

Of course, if we had some better strikers we might have scored more, but Wilder couldn't pick one as we didn't have one. We've had a player come back out from the cold (or warm in Greece), who then got injured, two lads who are prospects and haven't been here more than two weeks and Watmore who's never going to get a hat full.

Yup I agree. Not sure about the strikers. Is Watmore even a striker? I dunno. This may explain why he misses some fairly easy chances and is a bit headless chicken when running with the ball.

Looking at xG last season, not many strikers exceed their xG. Mitrovic smashed his if my memory serves and I remember looking at sporar's xG was 13 and he managed 8 goals. Again this is from memory so may be wrong. I looked at sporar's because I was convinced he wasn't as bad as our fans thought. He wasn't as bad but quite aa bit worse than he should have been.

 

[Laughing]

They can create all of them, but there is a lack of pace, a lack of dribbling ability. Personally I wouldn't ever play McNair midfield, he's too slow to turn, ad he isn't a 360 degree player. Much better coming out from the back with it where he doesn't need the awareness of what's behind so much.

Howson would be better at 8 than CMD, because he hasn't got the pace and energy to cover the negative transition/break. The problem with that is both he and Mowatt are similar, comfortable on the ball, but not really going to dart into the box and add numbers in there.

But I think we might end up stuck with that conundrum. Maybe we switch from Mowatt and Crooks at 8 and McGree and Howson.

I agree that with the demise of Howson we are missing a CDM. Could Mowatt play that role? I don't know, not seen enough of him. Crooks certainly can't he'd be sent off all the time. Mgree doesn't look strong enough. We'd love a leadbitter about now.

I think our main problem, ignoring saturdays game, is on the turn over we are too open to the counter. A good CDM with a good engine would help stop conceding goals. I think we will score plenty this season, I also suspect we will concede a lot too.

 

[Andy_W]

Yup I agree. Not sure about the strikers. Is Watmore even a striker? I dunno. This may explain why he misses some fairly easy chances and is a bit headless chicken when running with the ball.

Looking at xG last season, not many strikers exceed their xG. Mitrovic smashed his if my memory serves and I remember looking at sporar's xG was 13 and he managed 8 goals. Again this is from memory so may be wrong. I looked at sporar's because I was convinced he wasn't as bad as our fans thought. He wasn't as bad but quite aa bit worse than he should have been.

Yeah, I would expect that Mitro is going to be above average as he's way above any average player or striker in this league.

Same with Sporar, probably not as effective as an average striker, but to be fair he didn't get as many games as most of the others/ more time to get a true average return. Obviously the more data, the more accurate it should be.

 

[newyddion]

Right, it is about time people accepted that recruitment, and yes retention, is something we never seem to get right. This season is no different, it has proved our Achilles heel for a long while.

we knew we needed:
1 x Gk… We signed one who flaps more than a tee shirt on a washing line on a windy day. Early days, but not the star suggested by Wilder and certain fans as yet. Jury is out.

1 x LB… Quality offensively needs to learn the defensive side quickly. I am ok with him but he needs a ball playing LCB quickly to support him.

1 x CB… Lenihan is trying too hard for me. He is a leader, combative but needs to sort out these rushes of blood he gets. Fry is more composed.

4 x ST. Oh dear. Hoppe is a corporate project. Wilder has as good as said so. Lessons still not learned by the hierarchy. Forss, ok as a reserve striker, but more a player suited to a counter attacking team, not a possession based one where the opposition digs in. Chuba has looked our best ‘new signing’ time will tell on him. Muniz for me, is a good signing, strong, creates opportunities on the shoulder of the last man for himself, yet again time will tell. Larsen, no idea on him, could be anything, but looks strong and a good finisher. Gyokeres or Riis are proven in different systems in the league, Viktor would suit better, but cost is the issue on them all.

1 x CDM… We are toothless and uncreative in the centre and more worryingly both the manager and the hierarchy have dropped the ball as i am worried it is being overlooked by the need for effective starting strikers and a LCB.

1 x box to box M/F Selling Tav as we did was stupid. Morally correct as a gentlemans agreement was probably made. To sell him before replacing him was daft. Secondly it meant the strikers we wanted values increased as we had £24M sat in sales. Naive does not cut it. Tav had 2 more years and we should have simply thought no and sold him next summer if not promoted. We are to soft as a club from top to bottom, even on the pitch we don’t use the dark arts as much as others.

If we bring in a striker capable of 20 goals a season, a ball playing LCB that can cover Giles offensive quality and a M/F who can be both a destroyer and creator at the same time (at our level) then we will fly up the league. However it will need the monies brought in from Tav and that idiot who signed for Spurs that Conte doesn’t want, to be heavily spent.

Recruitment has been a mixed bag and for me is a long way from seeing the marquee signing(s) Wilder was promised. Still time to get it right, but I can see Wilder walking if he is provided with yet more projects over absolute proven quality. As it stands I see us around 10th, the next signings are so crucial to a play off push and the boat needs pushing out to get it right.

That’s three BIG players there. We’ve struggled to bring in any. I guess it’s time to see if Keiren Scott can walk on water!

 

[coluka]

That’s three BIG players there. We’ve struggled to bring in any. I guess it’s time to see if Keiren Scott can walk on water!

He’ll likely use the drought as an excuse as to why he can’t right now

I can see it being a nail biting deadline day at the Boro, the bushes at Rockliffe will be filled with camouflaged adults carrying binoculars, mobiles at the ready. Personalised number plates like BG18SON will be seen at the Tontine, a private Jet from Amsterdam spotted landing late at Teesside International and Neil Bausor placing a late deliveroo order for 5 Pepperoni and Jalepeno pizza boxes, 6 chicken parmo’s with chips and a tin of Rakfisk.

I might buy an extra large pack of Nice ‘N’ Spicy Nik Naks and an extra bottle of Frosty Jack’s Cider from the corner shop in readiness

 

[BoroMart]

Looking at the league table in the championship, admittedly only 5 games in the only team in the top 5 of the table, that also is in the top 5 of the xG stat is Sheff Utd. Looking at all of last season, only the top two clubs showed a strong correlation between xG and league position at the top end of the table. Interestingly enough the bottom of the table had a good corrrelation.

for league position you need to be looking at Xg : xGA ratio

 

[BoroMart]

Looking at xG last season, not many strikers exceed their xG. Mitrovic smashed his if my memory serves and I remember looking at sporar's xG was 13 and he managed 8 goals. Again this is from memory so may be wrong. I looked at sporar's because I was convinced he wasn't as bad as our fans thought. He wasn't as bad but quite aa bit worse than he should have been.

Depends if you purely measure the worth of a striker on goals, expected or actual. The other facets of his game were poor

 

[Lord Percy]

Performances mean nothing

We could play utter boring **** and win and id be happy

There is no point playing good football and retaining loads of possession if you lose

When you go to games, the performance really means nothing to you?

 

[coluka]

When you go to games, the performance really means nothing to you?

While we all want to see Boro play quick, attractive, high intensity, goal filled football, I’d happily take a season of boring 1-0 wins and be promoted than be like Keegans Newcastle and ultimately win nowt.

 

[viv_andersons_nana]

While we all want to see Boro play quick, attractive, high intensity, goal filled football, I’d happily take a season of boring 1-0 wins and be promoted than be like Keegans Newcastle and ultimately win nowt.

Keegan’s team won promotion while playing absolutely fantastic football.

 

[BoroMart]

Sheff U are top and we are effectively bottom, yet with appropriate refereeing we would be level with them in the play off spots. That's the way it goes sometime, hopefully the footballing gods will start to work for us really quick, we need to sacrifice some donkeys to them. Uche has departed, if Bola goes the same way the footballing gods will reward us

 

[Lord Percy]

While we all want to see Boro play quick, attractive, high intensity, goal filled football, I’d happily take a season of boring 1-0 wins and be promoted than be like Keegans Newcastle and ultimately win nowt.

When I’ve been on a bus for 11 hours to Reading, I want a few moments to get excited about intra game. Some talking points, other than how tedious our side to side half way line passing is. Sneaking a goal or 2 and winning - of course, you’d be happy from a result perspective, but if that’s the mentality, there’s no point going to the game. Better off just waiting to cheer the vidi-printer at 4:50pm.