How Many Deaths are a ‘bad result’

1finny

1finny

Well-known member
Remember the ‘if we have less than 20000 deaths we will have had a good result?’
Looks like we have surpassed, that if you count those in care homes. For those of you who weren’t aware, by the way, we only found we had care homes last week.

The assumption could be 20001 is a bad result.
 
Didn’t he say we would have done “very well”, so maybe 20000-30000 would just be that we’ve done well?
 
For the record I think this government is inept, corrupt and run by a lying bstrd.

However do we criticise them for building temporary hospitals that are empty? Closing Schools when the evidence is it is pointless. Boris is a terwaat of the highest order, but I know I don't have the intellect to make the choices any head of government has to make , without hindsight.
 
Same_as_before said:
For the record I think this government is inept, corrupt and run by a lying bstrd.

However do we criticise them for building temporary hospitals that are empty? Closing Schools when the evidence is it is pointless. Boris is a terwaat of the highest order, but I know I don't have the intellect to make the choices any head of government has to make , without hindsight.
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Not being argumentative, just wondering what evidence there is that closing schools is pointless?
 
The amount of deaths will imho prove to show a correlation with the Governments slowness to prepare, slowness to plan and slowness to act. Lives have been lost through dither, lack of realisation as to what was coming and a failure to ensure those on the front line were prepared with suitable eqpt and infrastructure, ppe, oxygen, ventilators etc. they absolutely should have foreseen this back in 2016 after the planning conference showed what a risk a pandemic would be. Fail to plan and you plan to fail.

Once they acted, they have done some good things albeit slow. Furlough schemes, increasing UC, lockdown, nightingale hospitals, increasing ICU beds etc. However, I think that they have throughout hidden behind the ’we are following the science‘ repetitive comments and once it is all over will use this to throw the scientists under the bus to protect their personal scalps as far as they possibly can.
 
Basically in Sweden and Singapore who have lower rates of infection kept schools open on the premise that children have a higher in build level of immunity. Also the mental stresses at home are not known . Not all mam's and dad's are nice people.
 
petrio said:
Not being argumentative, just wondering what evidence there is that closing schools is pointless?
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Forget it. Just looked it up myself. Found this on the sky news website:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...effect-on-slowing-spread-of-covid-19-11969671

It's largely nonsense though. "Researchers suggested some less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools such as closing playgrounds and increasing spacing between students in class rather than full closures."
I teach and have a class of 29. When schools were 'closed' we identified the children of key workers and I was in on day one. I expected quite a few children to arrive so set about putting a gap of 2 meters between seats in my classroom. Turns out, I would have fitted five, yes five children in. As it happened, I only had five in my class that day, as most parents found ways to keep their kids at home.
 
Same_as_before said:
Basically in Sweden and Singapore who have lower rates of infection kept schools open on the premise that children have a higher in build level of immunity. Also the mental stresses at home are not known . Not all mam's and dad's are nice people.
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You're right that they aren't but most that I have come across in my many years of teaching, are.

Children can be and are getting infected too. They are also notorious carriers. It's no coincidence that, once my daughter started at nursery, my wife and I had vomiting bugs like there's no tomorrow.

Can children be infected with the coronavirus?
Yes. Just as with adults, children exposed to the coronavirus can be infected with it and display signs of Covid-19. “At the beginning of the pandemic, it was thought that children are not getting infected with the coronavirus, but now it is clear that the amount of infection in children is the same as in adults,” explains Andrew Pollard, professor of paediatric infection and immunity at the University of Oxford. “It’s just that when they do get the infection they get much milder symptoms.”
 
Same_as_before said:
For the record I think this government is inept, corrupt and run by a lying bstrd.

However do we criticise them for building temporary hospitals that are empty? Closing Schools when the evidence is it is pointless. Boris is a terwaat of the highest order, but I know I don't have the intellect to make the choices any head of government has to make , without hindsight.
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No the Governments reaction with the Nightingale hospitals was good and has in the main been executed very well, better looking at a hospital bed than looking for one in the current situation, they have done some good things I’ve been very impressed with Jenrick and Sunak, I think Raab has done ok in a difficult situation in which he has little to gain.

That’s why I assume you haven’t ran for office but those that have believe they have the intellect to cope with situations like we are in now and they have to take responsibility if they get things wrong deserve criticism and holding to account, I think there’s plenty of evidence that social distancing and the closure of schools has had a positive impact on negating the spread of the virus, and if anything should have been done earlier.
 
I don't think there is a number..

I guess you can be the moral authority like spanishman up there and get a couple of likes...

I'd say there's loads every year that he and all of us have happily ignored till now running into the many thousands yearly.

So without trying to be morbid I guess the best we can hope for is that by the end of the year there's not been an excess of deaths over the course of that year.
 
I cannot believe people bash Boris/Conservative/whoever for doing what they do at the moment. We have never been in this situation before and who knows what is right and what is wrong.. Of course we close schools.. or course we close parks, and keep them closed for months to come as 1 more person infected will infect others.. it is that simple.

I was a "pfff just another flu" person, but look at the data since we "locked down" the number of deaths is unreal.. imagine if we just cracked on as normal??
 
sadgit said:
I cannot believe people bash Boris/Conservative/whoever for doing what they do at the moment. We have never been in this situation before and who knows what is right and what is wrong.. Of course we close schools.. or course we close parks, and keep them closed for months to come as 1 more person infected will infect others.. it is that simple.

I was a "pfff just another flu" person, but look at the data since we "locked down" the number of deaths is unreal.. imagine if we just cracked on as normal??
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We had never had the financial crisis that we had in 2008 before but that never stopped every man and his dog blaming Labour.
 
sadgit said:
I cannot believe people bash Boris/Conservative/whoever for doing what they do at the moment. We have never been in this situation before and who knows what is right and what is wrong.. Of course we close schools.. or course we close parks, and keep them closed for months to come as 1 more person infected will infect others.. it is that simple.

I was a "pfff just another flu" person, but look at the data since we "locked down" the number of deaths is unreal.. imagine if we just cracked on as normal??
Click to expand...


https://archive.is/20200418182037/h...n-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh

They knew how bad it would be, but Johnson was too busy taking holidays and hiding his engagement..
 
The issue is mainly one of timing. Too little has been done too late. In both the long term (last 10 years) and the short term (last 3 months). In both cases the government at the time has been a Conservative one.
 
Peston just released his notes of February when he was briefed that 500k deaths was the contingency.
Going on to say, for 3 weeks after that briefing there was little or no government activity.
 
There is a certain morbidity to this thread. However my take on this would be:

Any health care worker that contracted the virus, then subsequently died whilst the supply of PPE is inadequate are all uneccesary deaths. Anyone that those health professionals went on to infect who subsequently died are also uneccessary deaths, and think care homes here, and the staff spreading it from one resident to another.

In the general population it is much more difficult to assess because everything becomes ifs and buts. I would certainly have locked down much earlier, starting with football, cheltenham and the pubs. I would have closed the pubs at least 2 weeks before (which was when I stopped going to pubs as I considered it risky). I would probably have closed the economy at least a week earlier than was implemented along with parks. I would have asked and given the population a stark warning about what we would do if the rules were ignored. Then apologised and gone all out to stop large gatherings and fine people for flouting those rules on some kind of sliding scale until they got the message.

I would have, by now, issued an apology (if I were Johnson on behalf of the party I represent) for the underfunding of the NHS and given a clear commitment to end that underfunding and pay them what the job deserves.

How many people have policies killed? I don't know, but too many is the only answer that really matters.
 
Same_as_before said:
Basically in Sweden and Singapore who have lower rates of infection kept schools open on the premise that children have a higher in build level of immunity. Also the mental stresses at home are not known . Not all mam's and dad's are nice people.
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Doesn't this ignore the fact that adults also have to work in these schools. I know some still are working to provide care at schools for key workers' kids and vulnerable kids, but this for me highlights part of the problem. If we shutdown all non-essential things then are schools essential? The kids may have a higher level of immunity but what about a teacher with an at risk family member at home?
 
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