How exactly can the discrepancy in deaths be explained?

atypical_boro

atypical_boro

Well-known member
The numbers in the South East, South West and London (largely just as densely populated) are so much lower than North West, North East & Yorkshire.
 
The South west is not densely populated, major cities are Bristol and Bath. Many inhabitants are older and have been isolating, also may be a different make up of ethnicity than the hotspots and as such it may be easier to get the message across. Not trying to be prejudiced but just trying to point out a difference.
 
General health is worse in the north which may make a difference e.g. more overweight people (myself included!)
 
Smog in Wilts said:
The South west is not densely populated, major cities are Bristol and Bath. Many inhabitants are older and have been isolating, also may be a different make up of ethnicity than the hotspots and as such it may be easier to get the message across. Not trying to be prejudiced but just trying to point out a difference.
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I know but I'm damn sure London and the South East is. I was talking about the 3 regions as a collective.

I'd also be amazed if SW was any less densely populated than the NE, as an aside.
 
Oooo said:
General health is worse in the north which may make a difference e.g. more overweight people (myself included!)
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But is it THAT big a difference? Ok, so a few people are a bit fatter. But today there were over 100 deaths in those 3 northern regions, in those 3 southern regions, there was about 12.
 
I have heard that the first wave did not die down as much in the north so went up quicker this time. That does not answer the question though!
 
from the beeb:

Lesley Jones, Bury's head of public health, told Radio 4's PM programme there was "more vulnerability within our populations" with "higher levels of deprivation, more density, more people in exposed occupations".
Throughout the crisis, research from Public Health England (PHE) has highlighted that people living in deprived areas "have higher diagnosis rates and death rates than those living in less-deprived areas".
Deprivation is linked to serious health conditions and other issues such as overcrowded housing.
Looking at the local authorities on PHE's coronavirus "watchlist" at the end of September shows that a quarter of all these areas are ranked within the most deprived fifth in England. These areas are also more likely to have higher rates of coronavirus than the less-deprived areas within the "watchlist".
On population density, people in south-western and eastern England are more likely to live in rural areas or small rural towns. This means they are less likely to live in overcrowded housing, reducing the spread between households.
According to the 2011 Census, 35% of southerners (excluding London) lived in these areas, compared with 26% in the Midlands and 19% in the North.
Unsurprisingly, almost all Londoners fit within urban areas, which could help explain the surge in cases experienced at the beginning of the crisis.
 
Oooo said:
from the beeb:

Lesley Jones, Bury's head of public health, told Radio 4's PM programme there was "more vulnerability within our populations" with "higher levels of deprivation, more density, more people in exposed occupations".
Throughout the crisis, research from Public Health England (PHE) has highlighted that people living in deprived areas "have higher diagnosis rates and death rates than those living in less-deprived areas".
Deprivation is linked to serious health conditions and other issues such as overcrowded housing.
Looking at the local authorities on PHE's coronavirus "watchlist" at the end of September shows that a quarter of all these areas are ranked within the most deprived fifth in England. These areas are also more likely to have higher rates of coronavirus than the less-deprived areas within the "watchlist".
On population density, people in south-western and eastern England are more likely to live in rural areas or small rural towns. This means they are less likely to live in overcrowded housing, reducing the spread between households.
According to the 2011 Census, 35% of southerners (excluding London) lived in these areas, compared with 26% in the Midlands and 19% in the North.
Unsurprisingly, almost all Londoners fit within urban areas, which could help explain the surge in cases experienced at the beginning of the crisis.
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I just can't quite get my head around 7 deaths in London hospitals today and 57 deaths in the North West. Its a 700% increase.

Its not as if everyone in London is fit and healthy and lives in a massive house and doesn't ever go to the pub. Far far from it!
 
atypical_boro said:
I know but I'm damn sure London and the South East is. I was talking about the 3 regions as a collective.

I'd also be amazed if SW was any less densely populated than the NE, as an aside.
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Done a little bit of research;
Uk average persons per hectare 4.1
North East 3.0
South West 2.2
London 52.0

So while it isn't a significant difference it is lower
 
Smog in Wilts said:
Done a little bit of research;
Uk average persons per hectare 4.1
North East 3.0
South West 2.2
London 52.0

So while it isn't a significant difference it is lower
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Fair enough.

Still doesn't explain the enormous deltas we're looking at though.

I mean London is getting a fraction of the deaths the NE is getting, and its population density is 52.

Are they fiddling the figures, spreading covid around up here, or is there a genuine explanation? I'm not seriously suggesting the former 2, but what IS the explanation for such huge differences? I can't believe such huge differences can come down to a higher average BMI or whatever. I'd need to hear a very convincing argument for that.
 
atypical_boro said:
Fair enough.

Still doesn't explain the enormous deltas we're looking at though.

I mean London is getting a fraction of the deaths the NE is getting, and its population density is 52.
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The only thing I can think of is;

South west is very similar to East England very rural and escaped the virus in the first wave.

London and South East were hit hard during the first wave and may have built some immunity, also some of the older vunerable may have already passed away.

I am based in the South West and people are worried about the virus coming south, as it is slowly moving in our direction.
 
Tameside has the highest number of deaths (in both waves) in the country (per 100,000).

Middlesbrough is the second highest.
 
Smog in Wilts said:
The only thing I can think of is;

South west is very similar to East England very rural and escaped the virus in the first wave.

London and South East were hit hard during the first wave and may have built some immunity, also some of the older vunerable may have already passed away.

I am based in the South West and people are worried about the virus coming south, as it is slowly moving in our direction.
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Fair enough. That's the best explanation I've known anyone come up with so far.

Does raise the question about herd immunity again though.
 
Points to areas of depravation, not simply population density. Perhaps why Sweden's cities have done so well compared to UK cities of similar density, why Scandinavia on the whole had been fairly successful and Germany has coped better than the UK

Our country is battling its way down the league of how it's working class are treat. The contempt shown towards Manchester today highlights the problem.
 
Corcaigh_the_Cat said:
Points to areas of depravation, not simply population density. Perhaps why Sweden's cities have done so well compared to UK cities of similar density, why Scandinavia on the whole had been fairly successful and Germany has coped better than the UK

Our country is battling its way down the league of how it's working class are treat. The contempt shown towards Manchester today highlights the problem.
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Sweden have actually recorded a similar number of deaths per capita to UK though. Though they've managed to do it without decimating their economy.
 
Smog in Wilts said:
The only thing I can think of is;

South west is very similar to East England very rural and escaped the virus in the first wave.

London and South East were hit hard during the first wave and may have built some immunity, also some of the older vunerable may have already passed away.

I am based in the South West and people are worried about the virus coming south, as it is slowly moving in our direction.
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Ok, I will bell the cat.
Areas of social deprivation where the figures are the worst have huge ethnic populations.
Dont bother screaming racist at me.
Afro Caribbean and Asian people appear to be more susceptible to this virus.
The areas worst hit have immensely dense populations.
The South West can rest easy.
 
This has been asked on here a few times. Think you would be better off comparing N rates now to London and SE back in the spring. Not sure the virus does waves, more of a rippling out across the country as time has gone on. Convinced we have a higher level of herd immunity down here. The virus would of been rife in London in the spring given the population density, tourists, size of the hospitality sector, reliance on public transport, business travellers, office workers and 2 international airports on the doorstep. Most the big flare ups now are in uni towns, having nearly 1000 positive tests on one campus is obviously going to inflate the figures but better than having 1000 cases scattered around the country as well being to people less likely to get seriously ill. Also much less multi generational households here in the SE.
 
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Lifelonfaninexile said:
Ok, I will bell the cat.
Areas of social deprivation where the figures are the worst have huge ethnic populations.
Dont bother screaming racist at me.
Afro Caribbean and Asian people appear to be more susceptible to this virus.
The areas worst hit have immensely dense populations.
The South West can rest easy.
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I dont disagree, but there is some debate as to whether it is more likely that BAME people get the virus due to their ethnicity or due to their workplaces and/or residential situation.
I certainly wouldnt call anyone a racist for presenting the facts as they are.
I think that the South west will be ok, but there are large areas with high social deprivation, Cornwall is one of the poorest areas in the country.
 
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