How are we favourites?

B

B17er

Well-known member
We are favourites to win today's match with the first two bookies I have looked at around 2.6 (3.1 draw, 2.8 Cardiff) - how have they worked that out?

They are top of the form table and we are 14th.
In the overall home table we are 9th and they are third in the overall away league.
We've just been beat 3-1 by a team that had barely scored, never mind won for around six weeks.
We've got Bettinelli in goal *

It's rare that the bookies make a mistakes, but I think they have this one priced up wrong. 2.8 is exceptionally good value on Cardiff.



* Sorry, just a little joke.
 
B17er said:
We are favourites to win today's match with the first two bookies I have looked at around 2.6 (3.1 draw, 2.8 Cardiff) - how have they worked that out?

They are top of the form table and we are 14th.
In the overall home table we are 9th and they are third in the overall away league.
We've just been beat 3-1 by a team that had barely scored, never mind won for around six weeks.
We've got Bettinelli in goal *

It's rare that the bookies make a mistakes, but I think they have this one priced up wrong. 2.8 is exceptionally good value on Cardiff.



* Sorry, just a little joke.
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The bookies don't get things right or wrong, that is a misconception. They price according to market forces and if the market says Boro should be favourites, it's because people are pushing the market that way.

I suspect that the market may change as we get closer to KO time.

On a different note the 2.8 on Cardiff is definitely not exceptionally good value. You can get 3.0 on betfair right now. That is probably a fair indication of their chance of winning. Have a flutter by all means, but do it with your eyes wide open.

If we turn up today we win, if we don't, we will struggle.
 
Laughing said:
On a different note the 2.8 on Cardiff is definitely not exceptionally good value. You can get 3.0 on betfair right now. That is probably a fair indication of their chance of winning. Have a flutter by all means, but do it with your eyes wide open.
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I meant that it is exceptionally good value from a bookie. Also 3 on Betfair will incur a 5% commission on winnings so it's more like 2.9. I've gone with Smarkets at 3.05 with 0% commission.

I also disagree with "If we turn up today we win, if we don't, we will struggle." - it's more like if we turn up we give them a game.
 
B17er said:
I meant that it is exceptionally good value from a bookie. Also 3 on Betfair will incur a 5% commission on winnings so it's more like 2.9. I've gone with Smarkets at 3.05 with 0% commission.

I also disagree with "If we turn up today we win, if we don't, we will struggle." - it's more like if we turn up we give them a game.
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B17er, unlikely name, btw. I think if we turn up in any game, we are very likely to win it. On a good day we can beat, and probably would, every team in the division.

For you're bet I would offer one suggestion. Watch the first 15 minutes, if there is no goal and we are as bad as we can be, let the bet ride, you've got a great price. If we look great in the first 15 minutes you may consider trading out for a small loss - assuming, of course that it is still 0-0, because in these circumstances, I think you have a poor price, and we will stuff them.

All opinions are based on the fact that I am a boro supporter and clearly know nothing about football caveat emptor as Del Boy would say, if he had done latin in school instead of french.
 
B17er said:
I'm sorry, you've lost me. I used to be a member of the Block17 message board a while back before it went offline.
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right got the name.I don't even remember that message board. Don't worry about the betting advice, if it doesn't make sense leave your bet alone. No offence but I hope you loose every penny you invested;)
 
Laughing said:
right got the name.I don't even remember that message board. Don't worry about the betting advice, if it doesn't make sense leave your bet alone. No offence but I hope you loose every penny you invested;)
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Same here - I usually place an "insurance" bet to soften the blow of us losing. I love losing those bets!
 
Laughing said:
For you're bet I would offer one suggestion. Watch the first 15 minutes, if there is no goal and we are as bad as we can be, let the bet ride, you've got a great price. If we look great in the first 15 minutes you may consider trading out for a small loss - assuming, of course that it is still 0-0, because in these circumstances, I think you have a poor price, and we will stuff them.
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Be careful with that, we were not that bad against Bristol City for the first 15 😬
 
We seem to be getting a bit of stick here, but we were not that bad against Bristol City, as far as the performance went, we still had the majority of the ball and a lot of chances and corners, it just ended up in nothing. The result was very poor though and it seemed like the world had ended on Tuesday.

I think we just got nailed on the break and had some really bad out of character defending, obviously struggling with the wind. Fletcher going off early didn't help either.

I just think we were set up wrong for the conditions and today is perfect for football, so if we try and play today we will do alright. Cardiff have won 7, but all runs come to an end and the 7 they have beat are hardly great teams. The best team they beat was managed by Woody FFS.

I'm going for a win today, 2-0.
 
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