Expected assists - xA. Is there really any point?

atypical_boro

atypical_boro

Well-known member
Apparently McGree’s xA is 3.8 but he only has 1 all season.

What is the point of this stuff? Is it telling us that we are being short changed by one of our best players whose been instrumental in our fantastic run of form?

Or is someone just making money out of inventing totally pointless statistics?
 
Someone somewhere will be looking for a model that accurately predicts future performance.

I don't think anyone has found it yet, but that doesn't mean it can't be done.

Even if it is found, some will question whether it really works.
 
It's the other way round anyway - it's showing that he is creating more than we are scoring from his assists. It's a good measure of his assist making ability even if others aren't putting the chances away.

Many will use these stats including the bookies. It's one of the reasons we were still predicted to do well earlier in the season (and WBA, and Reading in the opposite direction) when we were struggling.
 
atypical_boro said:
Apparently McGree’s xA is 3.8 but he only has 1 all season.

What is the point of this stuff? Is it telling us that we are being short changed by one of our best players whose been instrumental in our fantastic run of form?

Or is someone just making money out of inventing totally pointless statistics?
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I suggest you address your queries to Tony Bloom (Brighton) and Mathew Benham (Brentford). They've successfully turned two lower-league clubs into top-half PL sides by understanding the usefulness of data. They've also made a fair few bob for themselves.
 
Chappy112 said:
It shows he is creating more chances than his 1 assist but the players aren’t taking them.

Very useful statistic, it’s not everything and you have to use them correctly but clubs use them for a reason.
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Oh right.

What does it tell us then? We’re not scoring enough goals? Does it matter who creates the chances? Especially if we are actually scoring loads of goals. Who is missing these chances. Surely not Chuba?

I get that it may mean McGree is creating lots of chances but what is the insinuation from it?
 
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JackG said:
I suggest you address your queries to Tony Bloom (Brighton) and Mathew Benham (Brentford). They've successfully turned two lower-league clubs into top-half PL sides by understanding the usefulness of data. They've also made a fair few bob for themselves.
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I don’t think they read this board mate.
 
atypical_boro said:
Oh right.

What does it tell us then? We’re not scoring enough goals? Does it matter who creates the chances? Especially if we are actually scoring loads of goals. Who is missing these chances. Surely not Chuba?

I get that it may mean McGree is creating lots of chances but what is the insinuation from it?
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That he is creating more chances than he gets credit for, nothing much more to it than that. You don't need to overcomplicate it. It's just one stat in a sea of stats that they'll use to evaluate players.

McGree is playing very well so I don't think this applies to him but say for example we had a player who is doing alright and he has 1 assist all season but 8 xA then you might want to stick with him because at some point the assists will come, in theory. But again there are boatloads of stats they'll use as well as their eyes. It is about quality of chances too, if that 3.8 xA is across say 10 chances then those are pretty good chances and he is unfortunate not to have more assists but if every chance is a 0.01 xG then it just means he is the last pass before someone is shooting from 30 yards.

It isn't black and white, you need to be able to use your head with statistics or you can spin it into whatever you fancy. Corner takers for example might rack up a pretty high xA because every corner that a teammate heads towards goal(on or off target) will count towards xA but most probably aren't good chances.
 
Think of Akpom's chance against Cardiff.

Put on a plate for him and somehow missed, it would have been a high xG and a high xA.
 
Arguably more useful than the assist stat itself.

If you're playing with a top drawer finisher, chances are you'll get more assists and vice versa.

You could be the most creative player in the league, but if your striker is Kike Sola your "assists" stat isn't going to reflect that. Your xA should do though.
 
He won the penalty yesterday so would've been expected to get an assist but the penalty wasn't scored. 0.76 xG for a penalty, not sure what the xA is but I presume similar.
 
Chappy112 said:
That he is creating more chances than he gets credit for, nothing much more to it than that. You don't need to overcomplicate it. It's just one stat in a sea of stats that they'll use to evaluate players.

McGree is playing very well so I don't think this applies to him but say for example we had a player who is doing alright and he has 1 assist all season but 8 xA then you might want to stick with him because at some point the assists will come, in theory. But again there are boatloads of stats they'll use as well as their eyes. It is about quality of chances too, if that 3.8 xA is across say 10 chances then those are pretty good chances and he is unfortunate not to have more assists but if every chance is a 0.01 xG then it just means he is the last pass before someone is shooting from 30 yards.

It isn't black and white, you need to be able to use your head with statistics or you can spin it into whatever you fancy. Corner takers for example might rack up a pretty high xA because every corner that a teammate heads towards goal(on or off target) will count towards xA but most probably aren't good chances.
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Yeah fair enough. It just seems as if they are often presented as something we should pay a lot of attention to when really they are often meaningless in isolation. Stats may be objective but they are still used subjectively. And therefore are they really that meaningful?
 
I get that analysis, technology and the game evolves as the years advance but it still does make smile at the thought of Brian Clough being presented with some of this Xg info and what his response would likely have been 😁
 
HeineOtto said:
I get that analysis, technology and the game evolves as the years advance but it still does make smile at the thought of Brian Clough being presented with some of this Xg info and what his response would likely have been 😁
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Give me an envelope of money and I'll use / recommend it?
 
Lies, Bloody lies and Xg and Xa nonsense.

Watch the game. The stats are really only useful in the context of watching the game.
 
Must admit I'm a bit of a stats geek and whilst the methodology is up for debate, xA could be a very useful stat.

As mentioned above it's effectively normalising the "assist" statistic, which could be impacted by poor finishing. A player might create 100 clear cut chances but a striker only finishes one of them.

I might be mistaken but if I were the coaching staff I'd be looking to develop passages of play which result in the player with the highest xA (presumably McGree) playing with the player with the highest xG.
 
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