Just sharing the data
It is interesting
It is interesting
It is interesting.
I think (non-covid) excess deaths in general are down slightly because people are out and about much less which accounts for things like traffic accidents, workplace incidents, and most likely some other stuff I can't think of at the moment - all in all people are much less likely to die if they're spending more time at home.
The huge peak in the spring shows how covid affects the non-covid deaths also, as we get a spike of non-covid excess deaths around the time the covid-deaths are at their highest. This is possibly from lack of access to hospitals etc...
However what this doesn't show is the potential uptick of deaths in the future from people who have not got medical treatment and/or screening that they need/would have got in a normal year, and therefore will be affected longer term. I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few years the number of deaths in a year creeps upwards to account for this.
It is a very tricky balancing act for sure, because at the moment our relative number of deaths (compared to spring) is quite low, although they are climbing fast (close to 200 yesterday) and we want to try and stop it getting to the peak of spring if we can, as that can only be a negative. The trend (shown at the end of the graph, I think) is upwards, as we know from the daily numbers. It's hard to see what the next step is beyond a strong lockdown of some kind, similar to the spring. Not to say that a lockdown is a good option, but it may well be our only option to "stem the tide" as it were.
It’s the last para that is interesting
We have been told for the last 3 weeks or so about ‘growing number of deaths’
In reality - people die this time of year through respiratory issues.
We are then being told - rising cases = rising deaths. Well, so far (and for 4/5 months or so, that hasn’t happened.
It is tricky for sure but your ‘lockdown’ conclusion doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny.
I'm not sure how you can say that deaths aren't going up with cases?
This shows the 7 day average of cases, clearly trending up. The reason there are many more cases compared to spring is somewhat proportional to the fact we are doing a lot more testing in general at the moment and as such picking up a lot more cases, including significantly more of the asymptomatic cases which we missed before (and we know are a significant number).
There is a conclusion somewhere (I don't have a handy link, sorry) that a realistic number of daily cases for March/April etc... peaked at around 100k a day. the ZOE Covid Data puts current actual cases at around 36k a day, which means we aren't at the same levels as back in March in terms of numbers of infections (roughly a 3rd of the total), hence why deaths aren't so high.
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This is the 7 day average of deaths, also clearly trending up albeit not as fast, which I think you could expect considering a lot more people will be taking precautions compared to back in March.
But deaths are doubling somewhere between every 10-14 days according to that graph, and the thing with exponential growth is that it very quickly gets out of hand. In 2 weeks, as it stands, we'll be close to 500 deaths a day, which is starting to feel a lot like spring.
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At the moment, there is no real end-game apart from a successful vaccine. It sounds like we have something that works - we're just now waiting on safety and efficacy results and then to see how this shower of a government handle a rollout. Beyond that, I don't see a realistic way of returning to "normal" any time soon.
I still think lockdown is inevitable, but only a stop gap.
You mean these flu figures?I'm very hopeful that the flu being replaced by covid holds firm in Europe and here like it has elsewhere.
If it does given they have very similar mortality rates maybe we won't see an excess death increase.
The issue being even if that happens it won't seemingly impact government policy..
We have no end game with covid, it's very similar to the war on terror in that sense.
As testing ramps up more and more you will always have positive cases due to false positive rates then there will always be people who die within 28 days of that test and this will only increase as more tests are done, you then have permanent fuel to the fire that is covid.
We haven't ever measured a virus in this manner before, I honestly have no idea how you get out of it.
I'm starting to worry that this is it now, the future is scanning QR codes, taking a test for virus x,y and z and once or twice a year being told things are so desperate we need to shut certain services down.
I have no idea how people less fortunate than I are going to get through this winter and it really saddens me that the only solutions put forward by politicians is we should pay furloughed people x Vs y and local lockdowns Vs 'circuit breakers'. That's not debating the issues, it's more this:-
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The first thing that jumps out to me is the fact that at the height of the impact in March, for 5 weeks running the excess 'non-covid' deaths were way above the average indicates that in fact covid deaths were being under-reported, reporting changes (28 days) have reduced the real impact.Just sharing the data
It is interesting
The first thing that jumps out to me is the fact that at the height of the impact in March, for 5 weeks running the excess 'non-covid' deaths were way above the average indicates that in fact covid deaths were being under-reported, reporting changes (28 days) have reduced the real impact.
You should know by now
’There is nothing to see here’
Deaths broadly trending in line with 5 year average
I think what it shows is that most people who die after contracting Covid would have died within a period of time anyway.
We had a surge in deaths as Covid hit, which has led to a downturn as the people who would have been dying are already dead.
some element of truth....and some of that was based around the shambles of PPE, the government made hospitals a complete death trap. They also made care homes a complete death trap in that period too by not assisting the private operators of care homes with PPE provision, but that's ultimately a result of privatisation of this sector.Doctors and scientists aren't making this claim, they claim that people were dying at home as they were afraid to go to the hospital, this is backed up by the statistics.