Excess Deaths Latest

1finny

Well-known member
Just sharing the data
It is interesting
 

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Matt

Member
It is interesting.

I think (non-covid) excess deaths in general are down slightly because people are out and about much less which accounts for things like traffic accidents, workplace incidents, and most likely some other stuff I can't think of at the moment - all in all people are much less likely to die if they're spending more time at home.

The huge peak in the spring shows how covid affects the non-covid deaths also, as we get a spike of non-covid excess deaths around the time the covid-deaths are at their highest. This is possibly from lack of access to hospitals etc...

However what this doesn't show is the potential uptick of deaths in the future from people who have not got medical treatment and/or screening that they need/would have got in a normal year, and therefore will be affected longer term. I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few years the number of deaths in a year creeps upwards to account for this.

It is a very tricky balancing act for sure, because at the moment our relative number of deaths (compared to spring) is quite low, although they are climbing fast (close to 200 yesterday) and we want to try and stop it getting to the peak of spring if we can, as that can only be a negative. The trend (shown at the end of the graph, I think) is upwards, as we know from the daily numbers. It's hard to see what the next step is beyond a strong lockdown of some kind, similar to the spring. Not to say that a lockdown is a good option, but it may well be our only option to "stem the tide" as it were.
 

1finny

Well-known member
It is interesting.

I think (non-covid) excess deaths in general are down slightly because people are out and about much less which accounts for things like traffic accidents, workplace incidents, and most likely some other stuff I can't think of at the moment - all in all people are much less likely to die if they're spending more time at home.

The huge peak in the spring shows how covid affects the non-covid deaths also, as we get a spike of non-covid excess deaths around the time the covid-deaths are at their highest. This is possibly from lack of access to hospitals etc...

However what this doesn't show is the potential uptick of deaths in the future from people who have not got medical treatment and/or screening that they need/would have got in a normal year, and therefore will be affected longer term. I wouldn't be surprised if over the next few years the number of deaths in a year creeps upwards to account for this.

It is a very tricky balancing act for sure, because at the moment our relative number of deaths (compared to spring) is quite low, although they are climbing fast (close to 200 yesterday) and we want to try and stop it getting to the peak of spring if we can, as that can only be a negative. The trend (shown at the end of the graph, I think) is upwards, as we know from the daily numbers. It's hard to see what the next step is beyond a strong lockdown of some kind, similar to the spring. Not to say that a lockdown is a good option, but it may well be our only option to "stem the tide" as it were.

It’s the last para that is interesting
We have been told for the last 3 weeks or so about ‘growing number of deaths’
In reality - people die this time of year through respiratory issues.
We are then being told - rising cases = rising deaths. Well, so far (and for 4/5 months or so, that hasn’t happened.
It is tricky for sure but your ‘lockdown’ conclusion doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
It’s the last para that is interesting
We have been told for the last 3 weeks or so about ‘growing number of deaths’
In reality - people die this time of year through respiratory issues.
We are then being told - rising cases = rising deaths. Well, so far (and for 4/5 months or so, that hasn’t happened.
It is tricky for sure but your ‘lockdown’ conclusion doesn’t really stand up to scrutiny.

I'm very hopeful that the flu being replaced by covid holds firm in Europe and here like it has elsewhere.

If it does given they have very similar mortality rates maybe we won't see an excess death increase.

The issue being even if that happens it won't seemingly impact government policy..

We have no end game with covid, it's very similar to the war on terror in that sense.

As testing ramps up more and more you will always have positive cases due to false positive rates then there will always be people who die within 28 days of that test and this will only increase as more tests are done, you then have permanent fuel to the fire that is covid.

We haven't ever measured a virus in this manner before, I honestly have no idea how you get out of it.

I'm starting to worry that this is it now, the future is scanning QR codes, taking a test for virus x,y and z and once or twice a year being told things are so desperate we need to shut certain services down.
I have no idea how people less fortunate than I are going to get through this winter and it really saddens me that the only solutions put forward by politicians is we should pay furloughed people x Vs y and local lockdowns Vs 'circuit breakers'. That's not debating the issues, it's more this:-
IMG_20201018_105155.jpg
 
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Matt

Member
I'm not sure how you can say that deaths aren't going up with cases?

This shows the 7 day average of cases, clearly trending up. The reason there are many more cases compared to spring is somewhat proportional to the fact we are doing a lot more testing in general at the moment and as such picking up a lot more cases, including significantly more of the asymptomatic cases which we missed before (and we know are a significant number).

There is a conclusion somewhere (I don't have a handy link, sorry) that a realistic number of daily cases for March/April etc... peaked at around 100k a day. the ZOE Covid Data puts current actual cases at around 36k a day, which means we aren't at the same levels as back in March in terms of numbers of infections (roughly a 3rd of the total), hence why deaths aren't so high.

1603361701776.png

This is the 7 day average of deaths, also clearly trending up albeit not as fast, which I think you could expect considering a lot more people will be taking precautions compared to back in March.

But deaths are doubling somewhere between every 10-14 days according to that graph, and the thing with exponential growth is that it very quickly gets out of hand. In 2 weeks, as it stands, we'll be close to 500 deaths a day, which is starting to feel a lot like spring.

1603361850731.png

At the moment, there is no real end-game apart from a successful vaccine. It sounds like we have something that works - we're just now waiting on safety and efficacy results and then to see how this shower of a government handle a rollout. Beyond that, I don't see a realistic way of returning to "normal" any time soon.

I still think lockdown is inevitable, but only a stop gap.
 

UKLL1981

Well-known member
That just shows to me how rife the virus was back in the spring, how long the Chinese covered it up for and the mortality rate is a lot lower than people are guessing based on incomplete data.
 

Laughing

Well-known member
The rise this time around, so far, is not as steep as in March and April, which is a positive sign. It may be the worst is behind us as Alvez and others think. I hope they are right, but I don't think so. As I understand it, there is generally a flu surge from December through March with some variation. If Covid turns out to have a similar seasonal pattern, we could see numbers spike very quickly through December.

My thoughts on this have been clear all along, but I do hope I am wrong and I can apologize to Alvez and enjoy a slice of humble pie next spring.
 

1finny

Well-known member
I'm not sure how you can say that deaths aren't going up with cases?

This shows the 7 day average of cases, clearly trending up. The reason there are many more cases compared to spring is somewhat proportional to the fact we are doing a lot more testing in general at the moment and as such picking up a lot more cases, including significantly more of the asymptomatic cases which we missed before (and we know are a significant number).

There is a conclusion somewhere (I don't have a handy link, sorry) that a realistic number of daily cases for March/April etc... peaked at around 100k a day. the ZOE Covid Data puts current actual cases at around 36k a day, which means we aren't at the same levels as back in March in terms of numbers of infections (roughly a 3rd of the total), hence why deaths aren't so high.

View attachment 7766

This is the 7 day average of deaths, also clearly trending up albeit not as fast, which I think you could expect considering a lot more people will be taking precautions compared to back in March.

But deaths are doubling somewhere between every 10-14 days according to that graph, and the thing with exponential growth is that it very quickly gets out of hand. In 2 weeks, as it stands, we'll be close to 500 deaths a day, which is starting to feel a lot like spring.

View attachment 7767

At the moment, there is no real end-game apart from a successful vaccine. It sounds like we have something that works - we're just now waiting on safety and efficacy results and then to see how this shower of a government handle a rollout. Beyond that, I don't see a realistic way of returning to "normal" any time soon.

I still think lockdown is inevitable, but only a stop gap.

I think we may be agreeing?
Deaths are going up as cases rise
But
The 5 year average suggests we would have had deaths at this rate and this time of year anyway.

Another way of looking at is
If Covid wasn’t around the death rate would likely trend the 5 year average. A lockdown would be inconceivable under those circumstances.

With rising Covid cases we are still following the 5 year trend for deaths yet are all over the place with lockdown policies.

Something doesn’t add up.
 

RandySavage

Well-known member
I'm very hopeful that the flu being replaced by covid holds firm in Europe and here like it has elsewhere.

If it does given they have very similar mortality rates maybe we won't see an excess death increase.

The issue being even if that happens it won't seemingly impact government policy..

We have no end game with covid, it's very similar to the war on terror in that sense.

As testing ramps up more and more you will always have positive cases due to false positive rates then there will always be people who die within 28 days of that test and this will only increase as more tests are done, you then have permanent fuel to the fire that is covid.

We haven't ever measured a virus in this manner before, I honestly have no idea how you get out of it.

I'm starting to worry that this is it now, the future is scanning QR codes, taking a test for virus x,y and z and once or twice a year being told things are so desperate we need to shut certain services down.
I have no idea how people less fortunate than I are going to get through this winter and it really saddens me that the only solutions put forward by politicians is we should pay furloughed people x Vs y and local lockdowns Vs 'circuit breakers'. That's not debating the issues, it's more this:-
View attachment 7773
You mean these flu figures?

20201021_163314.jpg
 

ChrisTheRed

Active member
It was saying on the news earlier that for every direct death from Covid we are suffering at least one indirect death.

So basically we are allowing people to die of other means.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
Just sharing the data
It is interesting
The first thing that jumps out to me is the fact that at the height of the impact in March, for 5 weeks running the excess 'non-covid' deaths were way above the average indicates that in fact covid deaths were being under-reported, reporting changes (28 days) have reduced the real impact.
 

Alvez_48

Well-known member
The first thing that jumps out to me is the fact that at the height of the impact in March, for 5 weeks running the excess 'non-covid' deaths were way above the average indicates that in fact covid deaths were being under-reported, reporting changes (28 days) have reduced the real impact.

Doctors and scientists aren't making this claim, they claim that people were dying at home as they were afraid to go to the hospital, this is backed up by the statistics.
 

go-nads!

Well-known member
I think what it shows is that most people who die after contracting Covid would have died within a period of time anyway.

We had a surge in deaths as Covid hit, which has led to a downturn as the people who would have been dying are already dead.
 

Corcaigh_the_Cat

Well-known member
You should know by now ;)
’There is nothing to see here’

Deaths broadly trending in line with 5 year average

At least Matt has a decent understanding of how to read graphs.

The current trend us obviously up, though measures taken to combat Covid19 have caused a drop in other causes of death bringing death totals below the average. This was first reported in the southern hemisphere during their winter.

The high number of excess deaths not due to Covid19 are the ones that need explanation.
 

BoroMart

Well-known member
Doctors and scientists aren't making this claim, they claim that people were dying at home as they were afraid to go to the hospital, this is backed up by the statistics.
some element of truth....and some of that was based around the shambles of PPE, the government made hospitals a complete death trap. They also made care homes a complete death trap in that period too by not assisting the private operators of care homes with PPE provision, but that's ultimately a result of privatisation of this sector.
 
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